Here in Otsego and points westward we have had very little rain last week whereas points east and south have had a quarter to a third of an inch from pop-up showers. We had .06 of an inch in Otsego for the week. Yesterday we had a high temperature of 89.1° however it was more tolerable due to the lower dewpoints. Chances of rain increase tonight (20%), Monday 50%, and 80% Monday night into Tuesday with expectations of a more widespread soaking rain.
SPC Day Two Outlook
Weather History
1894: The second record cool morning in a row at Lansing with 37 degrees. Grand Rapids also sets a record low for the date of 42 degrees.
1988: A hot and dry summer continues with record highs of 96 degrees at Lansing and Grand Rapids and 92 degrees at Muskegon.
On August 4, 1988, an F1 tornado hit Washtenaw County at 3:40 pm.
NWS Forecast
Today
Patchy fog between 7 am and 8 am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming west-southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Light south-southwest wind.
Monday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 am and 2 pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming north-northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8 pm. Low around 60. East-northeast wind around 5 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2 pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. High near 72. East-northeast wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 54.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 56.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 56.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 54.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Forecast Discussion
- Dry today; Scattered Showers/Storms Tonight & Monday Clusters of thunderstorms across MN/WI overnight will push debris clouds into our region during the early to mid morning hours, but no precipitation is expected since this activity should continue to weaken. Based on the 00z HREF cloud layer plot, mid and high level cloud cover is likely through mid morning or so before some clearing takes place. After 00z tonight, precipitation chances increase but mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected and not all locations will receive rain. Synoptically, we will be in the right exit region of a 100 kt jet, which would bring a period of upper convergence, which is not favorable for convection. There will be a subtle 500 mb shortwave trough moving through from 06z-12z Monday, and along with a slow moving surface boundary (cold front) could provide for enough low and mid level synoptic lift to help generate some showers/storms as PWAT values climb above 1.50". We never really develop much of a LLJ across the region to help fuel storms, with only 20 kts at that level across northern IL, southern Lake Michigan, and southern Lower Michigan. MUCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg will be present especially south of a Muskegon-Alma line. Overall, probably a scattering of showers and some thunderstorms but widespread activity does not look likely as we only have partial synoptic ingredients in place. During the day Monday, it seems the most favored region for a few showers and thunderstorms would be south of I-96 as the surface boundary gradually sags south. MUCAPE values quickly erode across the region, with 1000+ J/kg values being confined to near/south of I- 94. Greater coverage of rain looks to hold off until Monday night. - Showers and Thunderstorms Likely Monday Night into Tuesday A wave of low pressure will move from Iowa east-southeast into Illinois and Indiana during this time frame. A modest low level jet will impinge on the area from the southwest, but it is only forecast to reach the 20-30 knot range. The NAM does indicate higher speeds for a brief time late Monday night of around 40 knots. It appears the best time frame for storms in our area will be 06Z to 18Z Tuesday. This is obviously not a time frame that is conducive for severe weather coming in at the diurnal minimum. We therefore think the threat for severe weather is overall small, with a small chance for some marginal wind or hail reports. The bigger threat is most likely some locally heavy rain in an overrunning setup. Models indicate swaths of 1-2 inches of rain possible. This seems reasonable given an elevated warm front which usually is a heavy rain producer for us. In addition surface dew point near the warm front over far Southern Lower Michigan are forecast to be around 70F with PWAT values near 2.00 inches at times. Bottom line, we look for a complex of showers and storms to move through the area from west to east late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Rain is the biggest threat with small chances for severe weather. - Mainly Dry the Remainder of the Work Week The rest of the work week looks mainly dry. The rain will gradually exit the area Tuesday afternoon and evening and we look to dry out after that. There are differences in the upper pattern as we move through the work week with the operational GFS showing a much more pronounced mid level upper low digging into the Great Lakes. The ECWMF and the ensemble means of both the GFS and ECWMF show a more minor wave moving into the Northern Great Lakes. The result of either scenario with the more minor wave being favored is a lowering of upper heights and a trend toward a cooling of our temperatures. The operational GFS would produce below normal temperatures with the ECWMF being just slightly below. We have 70s for highs Wednesday through Saturday which will be welcomed after the warmth and humidity of late.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 89/68 there was no rainfall the sun was out 80% of the time. Even with a NW wind the high reached 89 the highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 82/63 the record high of 96 was in 1988 the coolest high of 65 was in 1915 the record low of 42 was in 1894 the warmest low of 74 was in 1955. The record rainfall of 2.12” fell in 1905. The overnight low here in MBY was 64 and the current temperature… Read more »
Spent the past several days at Lake Charlevoix. Such a pretty (big) lake. I hadn’t been there in eons. The weather was spectacular.