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Hurricane Season Update

We have another warm and humid day in store, though not as hot as yesterday.  Rain is probable throughout the day with a scattered thunderstorm of the nonsevere variety.  Rain will continue off and on tonight into tomorrow.  Yesterday we had a high of 92° and the low was 72°.  We currently have 75° at 6:30 am with a 75° dewpoint.

The is the NWS rain forecast through midday:


This is the storm rainfall data from the 3rd:


Hurricane Updated Forecast

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”

NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.

“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”

Image showing the The updated 2022 Atlantic hurricane season probability and number of named storms.
The updated 2022 Atlantic hurricane season probability and number of named storms. (NOAA)

NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence.

So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

This outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity. In addition to a continued La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.

Image showing the The 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization.
The 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (NOAA)

“Communities and families should prepare now for the remainder of what is still expected to be an active hurricane season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Ensure that you are ready to take action if a hurricane threatens your area by developing an evacuation plan and gathering hurricane supplies now before a storm is bearing down on your community.”

“Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we, therefore, cannot afford to let our guard down,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season—the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait.


…and finally an interesting cloud formation I found on one of my Twitter Groups which looks like Godzilla:


Forecast Discussion

--Showers and Storms this morning--

A mesoscale convective vortex, MCV, continues to move onshore
ahead of an approaching frontal system that will be moving across
the lake early this morning. Latest HRRR does a decent job showing
the passage of this convection. It is moving a tad slow but if you
adjust it 2 hours the timing and nature of the convection is
accurate.
 One of the limiting factors as this trough moves through this
morning will be that the best instability is to the north, Another
is the fairly dry air once you move inland. So expect showers and
storms along the coast.
 The line of showers and storms could reform this afternoon as a
500 mb vort max could couple with daytime heating. So there
remains a chance of scattered showers and storms this afternoon
and evening.

--Increased chance of showers and storms Sunday night--

Models are continuing the trend with the best threat of rain and
locally heavy rainfall late Sunday night into Monday. Ensembles
continue to show PWATS of 2 inches 00Z Monday. The warm and humid
air mass advecting into the region today will only aid in this
development. Strong moisture transport vectors allow with the
PWATS, coupled with warm rain processes will allow for areas of 2
to 4 inches of rain possible. if there is any entrainment, which
given the boundary, is likely. Given the chance that the boundary
could become stalled, flooding will be possible.

--Quiet midweek, storms possible late week--

High pressie will dominate the intermountain west and should
allow for an upper level low to swing a trough the region
Thursday. There is still some divergence in guidance. However,
the front that moves through Thursday into Friday looks both cold
and dry.
newest oldest
Slim

We are now in Manitowoc WI it is foggy and rather cool here with a temperature of 66. The has also been some an and off showers.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for more near to below
Normal temps next! Some 50’s at night! This has been a great normal temp summer! Wow!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

This almost feels like a southern pattern where it is warm, humid, and hit-or-miss showers/storms. Hopefully those areas that have been dry this summer get some rain from this system

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I think that puts me at about 3.25” of rain since Wednesday. Hope some other dry areas can get in in some of the rains through tomorrow.

Jesse
Jesse

Not a drop here today. Eastern Montcalm county and gratiot continue to dodge moisture. We got 0.3” on Wednesday while 40 min south gets flooded with 3”. The pattern continues where storms go south.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Picked up a quick about 0.75” of rain at my house.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

We’re getting a nice thunderstorm now. Sheets of rain (sorry Barry) and gusty winds.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Unlike those communities around me, here in Forest Hills this has been one of the rainiest summers I remember. The grass is also the greenest I have seen for August 7th

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Well we had almost 5 minutes of light sprinkles, but not enough to even register on the gauge. Heavy rain South and East of us yet again with nothing but hot, humid air here. Just turned on the sprinklers, don’t think I’ve ever used them this much before.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Some of these showers/storms are moving over the same area that got the most rain Wednesday. Go figure!

Mookie
Mookie

Phew! What a warm and humid start to August. About 5 degrees warmer than July so far!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Rain?…hilarious theory.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

The air is pretty soupy right now. Dew point of 74 at my house.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It appears that once we get through Monday, we will finally break free from this heat and humidity. It looks to be a nearly week-long stretch of sun and comfortable temps.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

So just to confirm, more near to below normal temps are the way and for an extended time frame! Wow, what a summer!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

That would be nice if it holds up. This has been a brutal week. Barely got below 80 degrees last night. Now if we could just get some rain, it’s beyond dry.