With a weekend of fall-like temperatures, the climate will turn once again to hot and dry conditions for the upcoming week with no chance of rain forecast. Yesterday we had breezy conditions with a high of 64° and a low of 44°. This morning we are 40° at 6 am.
High Risk of Abnormal Heat
After an extended period of fairly calm conditions on the Atlantic, we are seeing an uptick in tropical storm development. The area along the eastern Mexican coast is forecast to develop a tropical storm which is predicted to break our dry weather pattern as a moisture plume rises northward by week’s end.
Weather History
1874: One of the longest heat waves in the month of September is underway with Lansing hitting 95 degrees. Lansing would have eight consecutive days with high temperatures in the 90s from September 7th to the 14th.
1951: A cool air mass settled into Lower Michigan bringing frost and freezing temperatures. Grand Rapids fell to a record low of 31 degrees.
On September 8, 1997, a waterspout was sighted over western Lake Erie. It was located offshore from Bolles Harbor which is just south of Monroe.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Mainly dry with increasingly warmer temperatures through Monday The upper trough that was responsible for the much cooler air and clouds and showers starting on Friday, has now moved far enough east to not be affecting our area anymore. We are not quite under the ridge yet, so clear and dry will have to wait just a tad longer. We do see a short wave ride to our North across the UP and Ontario tonight. Some warm air advection strengthening ahead of this low is expected to cause some mid-level cloud cover to pass through the area. Right now, this looks like one of the scenarios where a few sprinkles may make it to the sfc, but looks to be about it with dry lower levels holding strong. This system and its warm air advection moves east of the area then by Monday. This will then allow the long wave upper ridge to build in and clear our skies out. - Upper Ridging breaks down by end of the week The pattern reverses this week as upper ridging across the western CONUS is replaced with a full latitude upper trough by next weekend. Meanwhile, the upper low across the NE CONUS is replaced by upper ridging. All the models show a tropical cyclone forming near the Texas coast and eventually moving northeast. This could be a player in our weather by next weekend. Sensible weather will feature a long period of dry weather with temperatures moderating to above normal during the middle of the week. The dry spell could be broken by late Friday or Saturday as the plume of tropic moisture surges northward.
“High risk of abnormal heat”? Not the forecast I’d like to see heading into mid September.
I am sure the Allegan Fair will enjoy the dry weather. Not sure about the hot…
Yesterday was a cool early fall day with a H/L of 63/46 there was no rainfall the sun was out 62 % of the time. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set in 1897,1922 and 1960. The coldest high of 58 was set in 1924 the record low of 36 was set in 1954 and the warmest low of 74 was set in 1974. The most rainfall of 2.27” was in 1989.
Slim
The overnight low at GRR was a cool 41 that is the coldest low since May 12th it is also the 4th coldest low for any September 8th and the coldest low since 1979. As is often the case we now look to really warm up for much of the upcoming week.
Slim