We have 64° at 4:30 this morning. There was a trace of rain from a few sprinkles passing through Otsego yesterday with a high of 77.5° and a low of 51°. Today we will see more summerlike conditions with partly sunny skies and high temps well into the 80s. It will also be breezy, with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. We have chances of rain and storms through Sunday morning, chances increase tonight through tomorrow.
SPC morning summary
Seasonally strong belt of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough holds farther west across the High Plains into the central Rockies. This flow regime will allow for a slow eastward progression of the surface front, likely extending from the eastern UP of MI into northern IL by early afternoon. In the absence of meaningful height falls, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later today. Latest model guidance suggests modest surface heating will be noted across lower MI ahead of the front. Forecast soundings suggest CINH will weaken across the eastern UP of MI into northeast WI by early afternoon, and scattered convection is expected to develop across this region first. Wind profiles favor supercells and this activity should spread/develop east-northeast ahead of the cold front across northern lower MI. Latest HREF members support this scenario and there appears to be some tornado threat with these supercells given the shear/buoyancy. Otherwise, hail and wind can be expected with this convection.
...Best chance of storms is north today... Not too much has changed since yesterday with the anticipated evolution of the slow moving cold front and associated convection. A slight risk of severe storms remains in place for much of Lower Michigan. However, a capped environment south of I-96 suggests that the majority of storms that develop will be over the northern half of the cwa and northern Lower. Low pressure in western Wisconsin will move northeast across Lake Superior today and a trailing cold front will move slowly east, such that by 21Z or so the front will be near the shoreline north of Muskegon. Convergence near the front isn`t all that great as it`s parallel to the nearly unidirectional flow. However, conditional instability will be substantial ahead of the front. Forecast soundings on the hrrr and namnest point toward MLCAPE in the 2-3k j/kg range with a minimal cap. Bulk shear values in the 40-50kt range point toward significant organizational potential with wind and hail the main threat. Areas south of a Holland to Alma line will see a strong cap in place and should be basically dry through the afternoon. ...Tonight through Saturday night... The front is progd to move through the cwa by midnight and then stall near Toledo. This will place the cwa north of the front. We`re going to see a couple of low pressure waves move northeast along the front through Saturday night and each one will enhance chances for showers and storms. However, the convection should be mainly elevated and thus the main threat would be hail. Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening looks like the most likely time for showers/storms. MUCAPE increase to 500-1k j/kg during this time and so a severe storm isn`t out of the question; a marginal risk is indicated south of a Holland to Alma line. The precipitation will move out of the cwa Sunday and we`ll see clearing from the west during the afternoon. ...Cooler early next week... After highs in the mid 80s today, temperatures will cool to below normal values beginning Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected Sunday and 60s Monday and Tuesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a low moving over the state Wednesday. They are in unusual agreement with the location and timing and show quite a bit of rain with this system.