Holiday Forecast – Weather History

Temps are almost 20° warmer this morning than yesterday morning’s lows.  It is currently 36° at 5 am.  Yesterday’s high was 42° with mostly sunny skies and the low was 17°.   Below is the forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday:

 

Today
Partly sunny, with a high near 48. South wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Tonight
Showers likely, mainly after 1 am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 44. South southwest wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thanksgiving Day
A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 37 by 5 pm. West southwest wind 7 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Friday
A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.
Saturday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Sunday

A chance of snow showers, mixing with rain after 11 am, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

 

SW Michigan Weather History

November 21

1880: Bitterly cold conditions prevail across Lower Michigan. It’s the coldest November day on record at Lansing with a high of only 12 degrees. The low of four below zero is the earliest subzero temperature on record there.

1913: Record warmth prevails across Lower Michigan with high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The 70 degree reading at Grand Rapids is a late-season record.

November 22

1866: Seven inches of snow piles up in Lansing as temperatures plunge to the single digits.

1963: President John Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas, Texas. The weather in Lower Michigan is unusually warm with morning lows around 50 degrees and afternoon highs in the 60s. The month ends up being one of the warmest Novembers on record.

November 23

1931: A record late warm spell peaks on this date with a high of 70 degrees at Grand Rapids setting a record for the warmest temperature so late in the season. It is the warmest November on record at Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

November 24

1950: A massive storm moves through the northeast United States, producing blizzard conditions and record low pressure, and drawing extremely cold arctic air south across Michigan. The bitterly cold air results in high temperatures only around 10 degrees, with record lows down to nine below zero at Grand Rapids.

November 25

1950: The temperature plunges to an incredible 14 below zero at Muskegon, for the coldest November temperature on record. Grand Rapids hits 10 below for their November record low.

2004: A snowstorm drops between 3 and 10 inches of snow across southwest Lower Michigan. Grand Rapids has a daily record snowfall of 9.7 inches.

November 26

1896: Record warm temperatures in the 60s occur across Lower Michigan. The warmth does not last long, though. A sharp cold front is followed by plunging temperatures for the end of the month. The high of 64 degrees at Lansing is followed by a low of 18 degrees on the next day, and a low of 8 degrees on November 30th.

1949: Lansing falls to 5 below zero, the lowest November temperature on record there.

November 27

1930: What a difference a week makes. After record highs in the 70s only a week before, temperatures plunge to record low levels with high temperatures only around 15 degrees during the day.

1989: Severe weather strikes Lower Michigan with downburst winds and tornadoes. A tornado did a quarter-million dollars of damage as it cut a six-mile path south of Portland in Ionia County. Another tornado caused minor damage over a three-mile-long path south of Durand in Shiawassee County.


SE Michigan Weather History

November 21

On November 21, 2015, a record-setting snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan. Snow began early in the day and gradually increased in intensity with widespread snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour. A particularly intense band brought rates upwards of 3 inches per hour to Howell, where a storm total of 16.8 inches was reported. In fact, numerous locations reported snowfall amounts between 10 and 16.8 inches in Livingston and Oakland Counties. The NWS office in White Lake measured 15.5″ making it the largest snowstorm the office has seen since it was built in 1994.

Also on November 21, 1913, Detroit experienced record highs for two days with 67 degrees on the 21st and 69 degrees on the 22nd.

November 22

On November 22, 1880, there was an exceptionally early cold wave in Detroit which commenced on the 18th and lasted 6 days all with record lows with the bottom hitting zero on the 22nd. This resulted from an arctic high pressure measuring near 31.00″ over Ohio.

Also, on this date in 1909, 2.59″ of precipitation fell in Detroit. This is the record maximum precipitation for the month of November in Detroit.

November 23

On November 23, 1880, the overnight temperature dropped to 8 degrees in Detroit, setting the record low temperature for the day. This also marked the sixth day in a row (November 18-23) of record low temperatures, including a record low of 0 degrees set on November 22, 1880, which is also the record low temperature for the entire month of November in Detroit!

November 24

On November 24, 2004, a potent storm system lifted out of the Southern Plains and moved through the Central and Eastern Great Lakes region this particular Thanksgiving Eve. The precipitation started as rain but changed to snow as the cold air filtered into the storm. Snowfall rates exceeded an inch per hour for a period, as thundersnow was reported. Due to the convective nature of the wet snow, snowfall accumulations varied significantly within and across the counties, generally ranging from 2 to 8 inches. Gusty northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph further aggravated the situation, causing scattered power outages, and reducing visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less at times. Some of the higher snowfall reports that were received included Poseyville (Midland county), 9.2 inches; Auburn (Bay county), 6.4 inches; 7 miles west of Flint (Genesee county), 8.1 inches; Fairgrove (Tuscola County), 5.0 inches; Elba Township (Lapeer County), 5.7 inches; Howell (Livingston county), 5.5 inches; Saginaw (Saginaw County), 8.2 inches; Bennington (Shiawassee County), 6.5 inches.

Also on November 24, 1950, the high temperature for the day only reached 15 degrees in Flint. This is the record lowest maximum temperature for the month of November in Flint.

November 25

On November 25, 1950, it was a very cold and snowy day. A snowstorm hit on this date and continued into the early morning hours of November 26. Total accumulations 6.2 inches in Saginaw, 8.1 inches in Flint and 6.3 inches in Detroit. Also during the same time period in 1950 Detroit, Flint and Saginaw all experienced record lows for 2 or 3 days. Temperatures in Detroit were 7 degrees on the 24th and 10 degrees on the 25th. In Flint, temperatures were 5 degrees on the 24th and 9 degrees on the 25th and in Saginaw, temperatures were 7 degrees on the 23rd, 0 degrees on the 24th and 7 degrees on the 25th.

November 26

On November 26, 2018, a low-pressure system with a history of producing more than a foot of snow and blizzard conditions over the central Plains moved into the Great Lakes. Locations in Saginaw and Tuscola Counties saw over 7 inches of snow, while locations in Sanilac, St. Clair, and Macomb Counties only saw a trace of snow or none at all. Flint did break their daily snowfall record for the day with 4.2 inches.

On November 26, 2002, heavy lake effect snow developed over Lake Huron as cold north-northeasterly winds passed over the relatively warm waters of the lake. A lake effect snow band moved onshore in eastern St Clair county and far southeastern Sanilac county on the afternoon of the 26th. The band then remained nearly stationary through the rest of the afternoon and into the early morning hours of the 27th. The snow was the heaviest and persisted the longest in the city of Port Huron. By the morning of the 27th, 12-hour snowfall totaled 17 inches across the northern half of the city of Port Huron, while the south half reported amounts around 13 inches. In Sanilac County, 12-hour snowfall amounts were reported as; 8 inches in Lexington, Crosswell, and Applegate.

On November 26, 1977, the snow continued to fall as cold air filtered into Southeast Michigan. The snow started on November 25 and continued into November 27. By the time it stopped snowing Detroit had 5.6 inches of new snow, Flint received 2.9 inches, and Saginaw recorded 6.0 inches.

Also on November 26, 1949, the overnight temperature dropped to a freezing -7 degrees in Flint! This is the record minimum temperature for the month of November in Flint.

November 27

On November 27, 1995, a snowstorm hit the Saginaw Valley and continued into the early morning hours of November 28. The storm left Saginaw with 11.1 inches of snow. This was on top of an already cold and snowy month. Saginaw received 23.0 inches of snow! This made November 1995 the snowiest November in Saginaw history and also the 16th snowiest month of all time in Saginaw. Remarkably, November 1995 for Saginaw is the only November to appear in the top 20 monthly snowfalls for Saginaw, Flint, or Detroit.

Also on November 27, 1989, an F1 tornado hit Shiawassee County at 6:45 PM. Talk about a late tornado for the year!


Forecast Discussion

- Becoming fairly windy later today -

Southerly winds will gradually ramp up today as a result of a
strengthening pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge
over the southeastern CONUS and the low pressure system over the
upper midwest. By late morning through this afternoon we expect
south winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph.

A consensus of latest high res short term guidance suggests the
highest gusts will occur from near KMKG northward along the coast
where some gusts to around 40 mph are possible. We cannot rule out
a few higher gusts to near 45 mph up around the points. Overall
though given the warm air advection rather than caa regime and
forecast soundings showing a temperature inversion at the coastal
sites later today from about 2-5 kft agl winds should stay just
below advisory criteria.

- Rain to light lake effect snow showers for Thanksgiving -

The approaching cold front will bring rain showers late Wednesday
night through midday Thursday. Pcpn will then gradually become
mixed with then transition to light snow showers Thursday afternoon
and evening as strong caa occurs after fropa.

Light lake effect snow showers will continue Thursday night into
early Friday in our favored NW flow snow belt regions as h8 temps
fall to around -12 C by 12Z Friday. This will yield delta t/s in
the middle to upper teens. However les potential will be mitigated
significantly by several factors including lack of deep moisture
and low inversion heights.

As a result only very light accumulations of less than an inch
are expected in our favored NW flow les regions from Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning. Minor travel impacts are
possible mainly Thursday night into Friday morning when temps will
be near to below the freezing mark.

- Seasonably cold and tranquil weather for the weekend -

A consensus of latest medium range guidance suggests we will have
seasonably cold high temps in the 30s through the weekend into
early next week with predominantly dry wx. However a weak synoptic
system moving se from the upper midwest may bring a little light
snow Saturday night with a few light lake effect snow showers on
Sunday.

newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Winter Rocks!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)
Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

That is crazy impressive! 12 day snowfall of 2 inches for our area, that comes out to 0.167” per day. I’m not sure how one would even measure that. The snow deficit continues to rise.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Very cold nights are on the way! Enjoy and get ready for winter!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

52 degrees and the snow deficit continues to grow. Yup, feels just like Winter. The past several anyways.

INDY
INDY

Loving this below average month of November and with more snow on the way it may end up above average in snowfall also who knew??? InDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Starting Thanksgiving night lows in the 20’s as far as the eye can see! Incredible cold!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Wow, whind chills today in the upper 30’s, tomorrow in the low 30’s and by Friday in the upper teens to low 20’s! The cold just keeps rocking! Who would have thought?

Mookie
Mookie

Meanwhile, in Michigan, it’s a nice warm sunny day to get your pre-Thanksgiving golf in! No big snow in sight.

INDY
INDY

All the golf courses are closed sorry ..Good luck chuck ….InDY

Mookie
Mookie

Saw an article that this year is the latest first snowfall Denver will have ever seen (still waiting). Crazy lack of snow out west!

INDY
INDY

Over 4 inches of snow already this November in my area the most probably in 2 or 3 Novembers past with more on the way!! All of the upper peninsula has above average snowfall on the ground for November only in Michigan baby!! Incredible…InDY

Mookie
Mookie

Always more snow at Indy’s place LOL

INDY
INDY

Loving this early Winter weather we are having lets keep it going through mid April wooo wooo ….InDY …

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I am digging the sunshine as of late. I thought our golf course was closed for the season. However, there were both golfers walking and using powered carts yesterday. There must have been 10 or so groups throughout the day. I mean, I love to golf, but only when it’s 50+ degrees.

I hope you all have a nice Thanksgiving holiday with your families. Stay healthy!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

This map looks incredible! Bring it!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Who wants to see a snowstorm soon? It is going to be a wild ride this winter! All signs point towards tons of snow! Winter is by far the best season in MI! Rock n Roll will live forever!