Nope – no heavy snow in the near term. The title of this post is a bit deceptive – I am speaking of what is on the ground. The light fluffy snow is no more, it has turned into a heavy cement-like concoction which is hard to move by shovel and snow throwers just kind of try to spit it out instead of blowing it. The weight of 1 foot of fresh snow ranges from 3 pounds per square foot for light, dry snow to 21 pounds per square foot for wet, heavy snow.
I was trying to clean up the snow which I brushed of the cars yesterday and yes, it was heavy and hard to move – a good workout to say the least. Looking at the positive of the snow and cold of the past few weeks snow removal was a breeze.
Now the issue will be with the melting snow compressing into ice on driveways, sidewalks and back roads. A wintry mix early tomorrow morning will exacerbate the situation. Speaking of ice, below are shots from the area webcams on Lake Michigan. In the first image you can see several people out on the pier. As of yesterday we had 26.8% ice coverage on the great lakes.
Business has been brisk at Bittersweet up the road from me even with the cold temperatures (feature image).
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The thaw we are seeing now will be short term. The mixture of precipitation coming around 4am will persist through Wednesday morning, ending by midday. A light glaze of ice is possible in some areas. Areas of dense fog are possible Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread accumulating snow is possible Friday night into Saturday. A return to arctic air and lake effect snow follows this system for Sunday and Monday.
A few icy patches can be expected this morning due to a refreeze of meltwater overnight. Dry weather is expected today with a variably cloudy sky. Thicker clouds and fog are expected along I-94, with more in the way of sun the further you go north. The U.S. 10 corridor will see sunshine today up toward Ludington and Clare. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 30s today so some additional melting will take place. Below are the expected temperatures this week and snowfall totals from Mondays system. We may reach 50° on Thursday!
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Warmer air will continue to surge into the area over the course of the next couple days. High pressure situated across the area this morning will slide to the east today and allow south winds to develop tonight. The south flow intensifies for Wednesday through Thursday when we are looking for rain, fog and drizzle.
A snow melt will be in full swing during this period. Some dense fog is certainly possible as warm air rides over a melting snow pack. On the leading edge of the warmer air, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible late tonight and Wednesday morning. A brief period of snow, sleet and freezing rain is in the forecast for this time period. High temperatures will warm from the 30s today to the 40s on Wednesday and the 50s on Thursday.
The long term portion of the forecast could be potentially active, although the details remain a bit uncertain at this time. Thu night into Fri morning we will see a transition take place with regard to precipitation types. There is good consensus that we will start out as rain, see a short period of mixed precip types (freezing rain and sleet) before ending as snow Fri morning.
The cold air at the sfc arrives a bit quicker than the cold air in the mid levels allowing this to be possible. This could cause some issues for the Fri morning commute. There will be a brief break in the precipitation before more will be possible Fri evening into Sat. All models have a developing mid level low down near Arkansas Thu night/Fri morning that is then expected to lift to the NE through Sat.
The track of this system is still a bit uncertain due to how strong the mid level low becomes. It looks to bring a nice swath of snow to areas N/NW of the system with the Gulf of Mexico wide open to interact with the strong dynamics of it. The models have been flip flopping, with the latest runs bringing some of the heavier snow to the srn portion of the area after taking it SE with the 12z runs.
We have upped pcpn chances up a bit for the Fri night/Sat morning time frame taking the latest trends into consideration. We did not go too high yet due to the uncertainty that remains. This is definitely something to keep an eye on. No matter the track of the low, colder air will be settling in over the area in the wake of the low. Lake effect will be ramping up later Sat and beyond. The favored areas for lake effect will be those that are favored in a NNW flow regime.
Today: Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. South wind around 6 mph.
Tonight: A chance of sleet after 4am, mixing with freezing rain after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South southeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: A chance of rain or freezing rain before 7am, then a chance of rain showers. Areas of fog after 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 43. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Areas of fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind around 16 mph.
Thursday: Showers. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 52. South wind 14 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night: Rain showers before 2am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 2am and 3am, then snow showers likely after 3am. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.
Friday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.
Saturday: A chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 18.
Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.
Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19.
Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.
M.L.King Day: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near19.
Just for the record – the EURO model has been horrible at forecasting snowstorms this year! Basically this model has been worthless this winter! This is the opposite of past years when the GFS model was worthless! What a flip flop! The EURO model needs to be burned and thrown in the garbage can.
Confidence has become much stronger that we will miss out on much
of, if not the entire snowstorm that will be ongoing Fri night into
Saturday. Good model consensus now exists in taking the heavier
swath of snow now through Ohio.
Never Really Reliazied HOW Adddicted To The INTERNET I am UNTIL My Old IPad 1….Died.Its Back UP and Running and We Got A Miini IPad ….stay Cued..and Or TUNED For The JEM Long Range MODEL First SNOW Storm Prediction of The Winter Season…..
CUE—-> Back in the Saddle Again, Aerosmith – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIPS4LyveJs
Hey, thats Eric Zanes lead in song for his talk show on the radio every morning! 6a.m. on WBBL!
Great show! I listen every morning! Love that Zane is doing so well on his own!
From NWS Northern Indiana:
…Potential Winter Storm Late Friday Through Saturday…
A period of active winter weather is expected from Friday morning
through Saturday. Rain is expected to transition to a wintry
mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow early Friday morning into
before changing to all snow Friday afternoon. Some ice
accumulation and slick roadways are possible during this period.
Snowfall accumulations are expected to be minor through Friday
afternoon with a few inches of snow possible especially along and
southeast of Route 24.
A stronger storm system will affect the area Friday night into
Saturday with a potential of significant snow accumulations in
excess of 6 inches. Some uncertainty remains regarding the
exact track of this system, but at this time the greatest potential
of significant snow accumulations appears to be roughly southeast
of a line from Litchfield, MI to Logansport, IN Friday night into
Saturday evening. In addition, there is a potential of gusty
north winds accompanying the storm resulting in blowing and
drifting snow and significantly reduced visibilities.
Small changes in forecast storm track will dramatically change
forecast snowfall amounts. Anyone planning travel across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region should stay updated on
later forecasts as confidence in the track of this storm increases
over the next few days. Much colder air will move back into the
region Saturday night behind this system with increasing chances of
lake effect snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The current GFS does not show much warm air around here after this Thursday?
This snow map shows Detroit getting hammered! Move that bad boy about 150 miles to the West!
I knew that EURO model was to good to be true!
Hang on for the roller coaster weather!!
https://m.accuweather.com/en/us/grand-rapids-mi/49503/extended-weather-forecast/329374
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Feels awesome out today! Bright sunshine again, mild temps, and no wind. Actually got all the salt washed off the cars today out in front of the garage. Facing South with no wind, I didn’t even have a coat on washing them down!
36* out at the YARDofBRICKS not going to break 40* today sun is fading away for the day .. INDYDOG14!!
Wow High of 17* Monday 18* Tuesday And 13* Wednesday shivering Snowman .so much for this 3 day thaw yeaaa!! INDYDOG14!!!
Warm up to the 50’s. Then cold and dry. Then another warm up. Winter is dying.
Surprise, surprise. The storm has shifted even further east. The updated Euro has a whopping 2″ of snow total for GR for the next 10 days – it was saying 11″ earlier this morning.
GFS is even worse with a whole 1″ for the next 10 days.
Climatology for today January 9th At Grand Rapids, MI
The average H/L is 31/18
The record high is 57° set in 1939 the coldest maximum is 8° in 1912
The record low is -14° set in 1977 the warmest minimum is 40° in 1939
The biggest snow fall is 8.0” in 1930
The most on the ground is 17” in 1999
Last year the High/Low was 27/14 1.7” of snow fell and there was 2” on the ground
Slim
What a difference Lake Michigan makes. So far this winter season Grand Rapids has recorded 39” of snow fall while on the other side of the Lake Milwaukee has only received 4.9” and Madison has only received 4.7” With the Lake now at around 25% ice covered the amount of lake effect will now be less going forward into late January and into February. So as more ice builds up on the lake we will have to depend more on system snows and believe it or not west Michigan is NOT in a ideal location for that type of snow.
Slim
Highs in the teens again next week I hope my wife’s car will start INDYDOG14!!
Did it start last week???
Slim
2 times it did not due to the cold weather.. sucked
Temps could drop 30 degree in a matter of hours wow!! With all the snow on the ground 50’s and 60’s will be hard to come by Thursday .. INDYDOG14!
RACK STACK AND TRACK this is a BIG storm coming on the backside very cold air probably with this strong of a cold front I’d this was April or May we would be having a severe line of thunderstorms with it !! Strongest cold front all winter sofar coming! INDYDOG!!
GR NWS showing a high near 50 degrees on Thursday and then a high of 28 on Friday. Something is brewing – how far West will the SNOW end up?
Agreed. Usually in a forecast when temps are that far apart in such a short time, something significant is on the horizon.
yes there looks to be a storm but the big question is where? History for West Michigan being in the heart of a big system storm is that it will be 1. NW of here (the system Thursday) or to the SE of here (the system for the weekend??) In fact Mark you stand a better chance of seeing more snow on the weekend than GR
Slim
NWS Detroit saying a shot at 60 degrees is possible on Thursday!
Euro all the way baby INDY wants 20+ inches of snow … Wzzm 13 Aaron just said somebody in southern Michigan is going to get dumped on Yeaaaa!! INDY!!
Still no model consensus for the late week storm, in fact they could not be farther apart. Indy already shared with you what the EURO shows and the GFS has the storm missing us completely! Amazing model disparity for only 3 or 4 days out. You know which model I am rooting for!
Seeing as NWS Detroit still isn’t very bullish on the snow and they are hundreds of miles SE of Grand Rapids, the track would really have to turn NW to give GR a significant snow storm. With that said, the system hasn’t even entered the Pacific Northwest yet. Way too early still.
Agreed and the EURO has shown the track giving us snow for days now. Because the models are so far apart the likely outcome will be to split the difference?
That split would still for the most part miss the GR area. But would be a big time snow for Detroit,
Slim
European model still showing 20+ inches of snow for GR Friday night into Saturday this storm berrrs Watching behind it very cold temps again showing a high on Monday of 17* now Winter is going strong a true statement!! Have a great Tuesday! INDYDOG!!