We have rain developing over the lake and eastern Wisconsin this morning. We have had only .06 of an inch in Otsego the first week of August so any and all rain will be appreciated. The most concentrated showers and storms will move through the area late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Severe weather is unlikely but brief heavy rainfall is possible. Fair weather will return for mid to late week.
WPC Forecast
SPC Forecast
Weather History
1947: The temperature hits 93 at Muskegon and 100 degrees at Grand Rapids, where it will reach the century mark again the next day. A total of 17 days during the month had high temperatures of 90 or above at Grand Rapids. This is the hottest August on record for Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Muskegon.
1968: Tornadoes caused scattered damage across Lower Michigan. One tornado hit southeast of Grand Rapids, damaging several farms from Kentwood and into Ionia County. Another tornado damaged two houses southwest of Lansing. A third tornado damaged a boat and dock near Houghton Lake in Roscommon County.
On August 5, 1931, the mercury rose to a record 102 degrees in Saginaw.
NWS Forecast
Today
Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west-southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 70%—new rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4 am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 61. East wind around 6 mph.
Tuesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2 pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 71. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three-quarters and one inch possible.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11 pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11 pm and 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low of around 56. East-northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. The chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 78. East-northeast wind 6 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 56.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Forecast Discussion
- Chance for Morning Storms, Then Mostly Quieter Afternoon For today, the most likely period for thunderstorm activity is from the early morning hours to midday. Very early on, the best risk for storms exists near and north of M-20 through about 09z. However, there is a weak LLJ across NE IL and southern Lake Michigan through the morning hours, with a reservoir of elevated instability (1000- 2000 J/kg) over the lake as well. It is along this CAPE gradient that most models are firing convection in the 06z-15z time frame, and this coincides with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, so some storm organization is plausible though severe thunderstorms are not likely. A moisture rich airmass moves into the region during this time as dew points climb into the 70s near and south of a Muskegon to Alma line, and PWATs increase to 1.75"-2.00". The general theme is for thunderstorm coverage to increase in the 06z-12z time frame over the lake, spreading inland. 00z CAMs do support hourly rainfall rates of 0.50"-1.00" under the heavier storms. Activity should weaken and head east after 15z. A few isolated storms may pop this afternoon along and just south of the boundary left by the morning storms, with the greatest risk along and east of I-69. Most areas appear to dry out and quiet down for the afternoon hours, but will monitor trends. - Another Round of Showers/Storms Tonight into Tuesday More widespread rainfall is still on tap for late tonight into Thursday. Most of the steadier rain looks to hold off until after 06z Tuesday. Model guidance has consistently shown the threat for an elevated warm front draped across the region and solid upper troughing and an upper jet (right entrance region) traversing the region. PWATs remain quite elevated, near 2.00". The fact that this wave is already producing storms across MT and the Dakotas makes it easily traceable and given solid model agreement on the propagation of the wave, we have confidence in a broad area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms (heavy, potentially) moving into the region very late tonight into Tuesday morning. Given an expected west to east orientation to the storms, some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1"-3" may occur. This probably won`t be enough to lead to flooding outside of short term urban and poor drainage street flooding. Where this may become impactful is during the Tuesday morning commute, which could be the heart of the event, and flooded roadways could develop where storms are heaviest. No Flood Watch at this time, but if any areas overachieve on rainfall with round 1 this morning (ie. 1"-2" occurs), the round 2 event late tonight could lead to more than just nuisance street flooding. We will continue evaluating the threat. As for the severe weather threat, the risk is low simply because our region will be located well north of the surface warm front. The stable layer looks impenetrable except for perhaps extreme southern Lower Michigan near and south of I-94. An few damaging wind gusts could occur across that region given the orientation of the LLJ and the strength of the mid level jet. - Mainly Dry with Near Normal Temperatures Mid Week into the Weekend Limited concerns once we get beyond Tuesday in the 7 day forecast. The models have remained consistent in showing surface high pressure dominating most of the time from Tuesday night through Sunday. We therefore have a mainly dry forecast through that time frame. The upper pattern has the Great Lakes positioned in between a strong high in the Southwest U.S. and an upper low over portions of Eastern Canada. This places our region in a primarily zonal flow in between with no major systems of concern. The one difference we have seen in the models the last few days remains tonight with the operational GFS indicating a strong trough driving into the Great Lakes from the northwest late in the week. The GFS ensemble means do not support this idea and are closer to the ECWMF which hangs onto zonal flow. The deeper GFS appears to be the result of a phasing of waves over Central Canada. The operational GFS looks to continue to be an outlier. Therefore, we will maintain the mainly dry / quiet weather. As for temperatures, both the operational GFS and ECMWF show lower teens C 850mb temperatures which will result in near normal temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for highs
ADA – Rain?…maybe a trace. Not enough to notice. We’ll see what this evening brings.
Not a drop of rain here! Pathetic! Bring on the rain baby!
…Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Van Buren, Allegan, southern Kent, southern Ottawa, Barry and Kalamazoo Counties through 930 AM EDT … At 836 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles north of Zeeland to 5 miles southeast of Fennville to near Coloma. Movement was east at 30 mph. HAZARD…Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include… Kalamazoo… Portage… Holland… Hastings… Allegan… South Haven… Paw Paw…… Read more »
.63 of an inch of rain in 45 minutes – not bad
Here in MBY I only had 0.07″ of rain this morning.
Slim
Any rain that we can get here NW of Grand Rapids would be welcome as it is getting rather dry in this area.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 88/63 there was no rainfall the sun was out 61% of the possible time. It was a rather calm day with the highest wind speed of just 13 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 100 was set in 1947 the coolest high of 61 was set in 1915 the record low of 44 was set in 1978 the warmest low of 74 was set in 1955. The most rainfall of 0.94” was in 2000. The overnight low here in MBY was 70… Read more »
Bring on the rain! I want to see at least an inch!