Heat & Humidity Continues

We received .28 of an inch of rain yesterday from afternoon showers.  We now have 3.21 inches for the month and 9.21 inches for the summer.  Yesterday’s high was 86° and the low was 69°.  The heat and humidity will continue today with the sunshine being more prevalent than yesterday.  The temperatures will once again rise into the mid-80s.  Chances of rain increase late tomorrow and continue through Friday.

SPC Forecasts

Weather History

1913: Offshore winds negate the cooling effect of Lake Michigan as Muskegon hits 99 degrees for its all-time record high temperature. Temperatures are actually a bit lower inland as Grand Rapids is 96 degrees and Lansing 92 degrees.

1960: Two squall lines preceding a cold front produced widespread severe weather with high winds and hail. Severe crop damage from hail occurred across much of Kent County.

2008: A tornado struck about three miles north of Clare at 3:17 a.m. A barn collapsed and the roof of a carport was blown into a stand of trees. Several other trees were either snapped off or uprooted.  (below is my Radarscope archive image)

On July 30, 2000, 1.12 inches of rainfall fell in Flint, which is the precipitation record for the day. This marked the third day in a row (July 28-30) that daily precipitation records were recorded for Flint. The grand total for rainfall for this three-day period was 6.03 inches – this is almost twice the normal monthly precipitation (3.17 inches).

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Relatively lower chances for showers/storms today and Wednesday

The compact low pressure which instigated Monday`s showers/storms
will slowly drift eastward out of the picture today but not without
keeping some lingering showers in mid Michigan this morning.
Shortwave ridging today will keep our afternoon precip chances low
with a tendency for convective inhibition (capping) and limited low-
level convergence. However, can`t totally rule out an isolated
shower or storm popping up in Central Mich this afternoon given the
lingering moisture and therefore SBCAPE, at least among the models
that don`t mix out the low-level moisture too much.

Don`t want to be too confident in what will happen tonight into
Wednesday in this mid-late summer pattern where moisture and CAPE is
plentiful but waves which initiate storms are subtle and often
augmented by the storms themselves. A number of CAMs are
understandably having trouble initiating or maintaining the MCS
complexes currently in Iowa and Minnesota. It`s the lingering
effects of the Minnesota MCS which may continue to nudge convective
development across Lake Michigan and into West Michigan tonight.
Scattered diurnal convection on Wednesday would tend to be focused
inland, away from Lake Michigan. Localized gusty winds would be the
main threat from any storms.

- Warm and humid with small rain chances Wed night through Fri

Confidence remains high that we will see warm and humid conditions
persist through this week. Confidence is increasing with regard to
the details of short waves/rain chances through Friday.

The rain chances we see Wednesday afternoon should come to an end
for the most part by the time Wednesday night comes around. This
will be the result of the Wednesday short wave exiting the state
Wednesday evening, along with the diminishing instability with
sunset also. The short wave ridge in the wake of the Wed system will
be enough to dry things out for the area. Again, not much cooler air
behind these systems, so it will stay quite warm and humid.

The last wave in the series of waves this week will try to make a
run at the area later Thursday night and Friday. This wave is
expected to become a bit better organized as compared to the
previous waves in the series.

This wave will be stronger, and thus have more wind energy available
to help with the organization of storms. The trend with this wave
having been stronger is for it to dive further south, and now almost
completely miss the area to the south. It seems that the potential
of severe weather with this wave has also shifted further south. The
latest trends are for the southern third of the forecast area to see
some showers on the northern side of the mid level low in the
deformation zone. We will continue to watch the trends on the track
of this system.

- Mainly Dry Saturday; Rain chances return for early next week

We will see a reprieve with this pattern for Saturday, as longer
wave upper ridging builds across the area from the NW. This should
cap any kind of shower/storm potential.

The break in the action looks to be short lived as we see the broad
and low amplitude long wave trough become re-established over the
region with energy diving SE across Canada. Temps will cool slightly
and briefly, but will rebound with the low level flow bringing the
warm air back in. We will see short wave activity pick up again, and
bring shower/storm chances back to the area for Sunday and Monday.