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Heat & Humidity Continue

It appears we are ending Met summer the way we began with dry conditions.  We have had nine straight days without even a trace of precipitation in most areas of the state though some were lucky enough to catch a popup shower they were few and far between.  In June we had around a quarter of an inch of precipitation the first half of the month.  For August we have had four days of measurable rain which had totaled 1.43 inches (in Otsego).  Forecasts aren’t calling for good chances of rain this week, the best chances are in the 40 percentile range on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Yesterday’s high was 88° with dewpoints in the low 70s, this week will feature similar conditions as last week with temps in the mid to upper 80s and high dewpoints.  As I was telling my wife yesterday with Michigan’s quick-changing seasons we could see a quick turnaround to the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s – I don’t see that happening soon…

Forecast Discussion

- Not as warm today with convection mostly near I-69

For the most part today will not be as warm as Saturday and there
is a greater chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms than on
Saturday. The showers will mostly be near and east of Grand
Rapids, within 50 miles of I-96 during the late morning into mid
afternoon. Weak deep layer shear will keep these storms from
becoming severe.

A slow moving cold front comes through the area during
the day today. There already is a weak surface low on the front,
just west of Holland at 2 am this morning. This surface low
should track mostly to the east, near I-96 reaching the Detroit
area by this evening. The slow moving front will bring more clouds
with it than we had on Saturday. With the passage of a weak mid
level shortwave over our area this afternoon, combined with the
surface convergence associated with the surface low and around
1200 j/kg of mixed layer cape, I would expect a greater coverage
for convection this afternoon than the past 3 days. The HREF 6 hr
ensemble probability of measureable precip shows a 60 to 70
percent chance for this precipitation, mostly within 50 miles of
I-96, from Grand Rapids east.

Skies should clear across the area by mid to late evening. This
front will bring in slightly cooler and drier air so lows should
fall into the 50s north and lower to mid 60s south.

- Warm week ahead periodic storms, the risk highest mid week

As I have been says of the past few days, the subtropical high
expands through most of this week. It is currently centered near
south Texas, but by Wednesday morning it will expand to cover most
of the CONUS and the center will have moved northeast to
Oklahoma. By Friday the center of the upper high will be just
south of Great Lakes - and all the while, from Monday through
Friday the 500 heights over GRR slowly rise. These sort of heights
(by Friday) are around 2 standard deviations from normal. This
means warm or possibly even hot weather into next weekend. There
is good model agreement with the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian models
all being on board with this happening.

So, if and when will we get rain from this pattern? The short
answer is the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame would be the time
most of the area would have the greatest risk for storms, but in
this pattern it would not be out of the question on any day this
week (inland of the lake shore). However, we have two major
shortwaves on the northern stream. The first one passes well north
of here on Monday as upper heights build significantly. So I am
thinking Monday will remain dry. There is yet another stronger
system heading for our area. This is currently a closed upper low
of British Columbia. That system tracks just north of Montana
during the day on Tuesday. This will create a frontal wave. That
will result in the formation of a warm front that will be sort of
wiggly but over time push north into this area by Wednesday. So
Tuesday into Wednesday at this point look like the most likely
time frame for a more widespread rain event. Locally heavy rain
should be expected with these storms.

Once that moves east heights rise even more and I am thinking it
will largely be hot and humid Thursday into Saturday.

 

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INDY
INDY

Had a beautiful time in st Ignace Michigan not nearly as warm as it is here we rolled in last Thursday afternoon the temperature was 74* degrees felt great I snapped some pictures of the trees the maples are starting to change color definitely aot of locals are chopping wood they are definitely getting ready Winter enjoyed a great concert at the casino outside on lk Huron went to our favorite restaurant the Driftwood inn and it was sad seeing a lot of good businesses closed and have limited hours do the pendemic sure has taken a toll on our… Read more »

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

A few leaves are turning here, but that’s because of the lack of rain and not seasonal change.

Speaking of that, getting heavy rain here now. The street is a river with a strong current. I wonder if these showers will make their way to MIS.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I don’t like the title for today’s post. Wasn’t it just a few days ago the outlooks had us cooler for the rest of August? Looks like they flipped again. We went to a wedding yesterday afternoon and the ac in the building wasn’t working. 2 people passed out from the heat and everyone was just soaked in sweat. Nice wedding but boy the heat was really taking a toll on everyone.

Slim

Several years ago my niece had here wedding up in Alpena and the location that the wedding was at did not have AC and it was one of the rare HOT days in Alpena. That was one of the most uncomfortable events I have ever went to. Note it was much warmer than yesterday with temps in the mid 90’s
Slim