Yesterday we reached 95° with a 75° dewpoint the overnight low was 70°. We had a brief shower with a little lightning pass through at 6 am this morning. Highs will be in the lower 90s, with heat indices in the lower 100’s again today with chances of storms possible.
Heat Indices
SPC Outlook
Today
Tomorrow
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest, and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
...Air Quality Advisory for Tuesday, August 27, 2024... The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) has declared an Air Quality Advisory for Tuesday, August 27, 2024, for elevated levels of ozone in parts of west Michigan. Pollutants within those areas are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) range. The Air Quality Advisory is in effect for the following west Michigan counties: Allegan, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, and Van Buren Ample sunshine, west to southwest winds, and warm surface and upper- level temperatures will make conditions conducive to ozone development on Tuesday. The areas of greatest concern are from Muskegon to Grand Rapids, then south to the state border. The timing of the highest ozone concentrations will be during the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. It is recommended that, when possible, you avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with respiratory diseases such as asthma.
Weather History
948: A late season heat wave with eight straight days in the 90s at Grand Rapids is underway. Record highs are set at Lansing with 98 degrees, Grand Rapids with 95 and Muskegon with 91.
1977: Only two days after setting a record low of 43 degrees, the low temperature at Muskegon is a balmy 74 degrees, a record warm low temperature for the date.
2004: A weak tornado struck near Sherman City in Isabella County. A mobile home was slightly damaged but no one was injured.
On August 27, 1965, thunderstorms in Wayne County brought winds of 73 mph at 7:00 pm.
NWS Forecast
Today
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny and hot, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 102. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. West wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. West wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. North wind around 6 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. East southeast wind around 6 mph.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Labor Day
Sunny, with a high near 72.
Forecast Discussion
- Hot and Humid, storms early, chance of severe this evening A long line of convection extending across the Upper Peninsula southward across the Wisconsin continues to move eastward early this morning. This line of severe storms will continue to move southward across southern lower Michigan this morning. Latest CAMS has some varied solutions but overall most have it will be moving through the region between 07Z and 13Z. Latest model soundings have between 1500 to 2000 J/kg CAPE along the lakeshore with CAPE values dwindling further inland and further southward. There is a fairly weak 35 kt LLJ associated with this system which has continued to allow for its storm formation. When its moved through Eastern WI it did become more outflow dominant which has allowed it to weaken. That said, based on the jet, the previous damage and some remnant moisture boundaries, there remains good justification for the SPC slight risk through the NW CWA 12Z this morning with the most risk for severe weather near the lakeshore at and north of Muskegon. Warm air advection will continue today with upwards of +23C at 850mb this afternoon. The big upper level high with the positively tilted ridge will continue to stream the warm, moist air into the region. Maximum temperatures around the region will be in the low to mid 90s today. That is around 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Dewpoints this afternoon will increase into the mid 70s. Given the hot and humid air, heat indices this afternoon with upwards of 105. This will be especially strenuous for people as overnight lows Tuesday morning and into Wednesday morning will be in the 70s for much of the region. A secondary trough will move through the region later today. That shortwave will flatten the upper ridge and allow for convection to move from the southwest to the northeast. Latest model soundings have around 2000 J/kg of Sfc based CAPE this afternoon and evening especially along the I 94 corridor. Given the hot and humid air mass and the incoming instability there will be another chance for showers and storms later today. The fastest solutions for this system continue to be highly variable. There should be a weak 850mb jet moving through this afternoon through the southern portion of lower MI. This seems to be a better region for convection this afternoon and evening, especially if they don`t have storms this morning. If storms do form, given the hot and humid air mass there is a good potential for them to become strong to severe. As such a slight risk of severe weather continues through the day. There also remains a signal for another round of storms late Tuesday into early Wednesday. - Unsettled weather through the latter half of the week With the flattening of the upper level ridge there will be another wave that will move through early Wednesday morning. Depending on Tuesdays showers and storms, there might be a more worked over air mass with less potential for continued convection. Another ridge will build over the region Wednesday and there will be some reprieve from the hotter temperatures. Max temperatures Wednesday into the weekend will be back down in the 80s. Fair weather should persist Wednesday through Thursday. The next weather system will be from a large upper level low that will move through Thursday night into Friday. There is still some timing issues but the deepening trough should allow for organized convection Friday. - Cooler and mostly dry through the Labor Day weekend Temperatures continue to moderate through the weekend with only weak chances for rain. There continues to be a strong signal a cold front drops down through the region late Sunday bringing another chance for rain with building high pressure in its wake.
Maybe a bit more rain overnight?…if it clears the lake.
Just over 263,000 customers with no power statewide.
Ada – Thankfully we were on the edge. Strong gusts while raining “sideways”. Branches to pick-up, but no trunks/trees. Hoping everyone was damage free.
Well that was wild. Wind like I haven’t seen in quite some time. Lots of limbs and branches down. Not much lightning. Just wind and heavy rain.
We’ve had a good number of big storms this year.
Seen a report of a 64mph wind gust at the Lansing airport.
I believe that
Pretty strong winds at my house. My backyard has lots of water standing in it. Still pouring
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Ingham County in south central Michigan…
* Until 530 PM EDT.
* At 423 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from St. Johns to near Nashville, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD…70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE…Radar indicated.
Dark skies moving in quickly…..
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Gratiot County in central Michigan…
Clinton County in south central Michigan…
* Until 500 PM EDT.
* At 355 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles north of Carson City, to 9 miles northeast
of Ionia, to near Saranac, moving east at 55 mph.
HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Barry County in southwestern Michigan…
Eaton County in south central Michigan…
* Until 515 PM EDT.
* At 407 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hastings,
moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.
I haven’t seen it this dark/black in decades…so far so good in Ada.🤞🤞🤞
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Northern Kent County in southwestern Michigan…
* Until 400 PM EDT.
* At 318 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kent City
and Sparta, or 14 miles north of Grand Rapids, moving east at 50
mph.
HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE…Radar indicated.
That storm just skimmed past us to the North, no rain here but the wind blast we got blew down 2 trees behind the house. Had to be over 50mph gusts for a short time.
Well…Hold on. All the ingredients are in place.
Current conditions in Otsego:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ALLEGAN BARRY BENZIE CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT IONIA ISABELLA KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT LAKE MANISTEE MASON MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA ROSCOMMON VAN BUREN WEXFORD
Severe Thunderstorm watch till 8 pm for the Grand rapids area.. INDY
Possible Thunderstorm watch coming…it’s hot outside Dewpoint just hit 70 in GR stay cool gang INDY
Meso discussion out 60% chance of a watch
ha, I was just getting ready to put this up
The official H/L yesterday at the Soo was 86/65 that 86 was the 5th warmest ever for August 26 the low of 65 was the 2nd warmest ever. Back in GR the H/L was 92/72. Looking out the window here at the Hotel it is cloudy and there is some light rain falling.
Slim
I slept in today as we have to get up early tomorrow for the train ride. It was very warm here in the Sault area yesterday. On the trip up the warmest was 92 just south of the bridge. Going over the bridge it fell to 73 and it was not until about 15 miles north of the bridge that the temperature rose back up to 88. It was 85 on the Michigan Sault and I had 82 to 86 here in the Canadian side of the Sault. The Temperature fluctuated a lot on this side.
Slim
We had a dandy of a thunderstorm a short time ago. It’s fixin to be absolutely miserable today. Be cautious if you have to be outside. Hoping we get some more storms tonight. Have a great day, friends.