Today’s weather reminds me of the chorus of my favorite Bob Dylan song – It’s a Hard Rain Gonna Fall. Most of the state has a flood advisory in place until 8am tomorrow with the potential of nearly five inches rain from Alpena to Coldwater and Grand Rapids to Flint. We have had over 8 inches here in Otsego this far for the month of October. Below is the NAM forecast for rain through Thursday and the GFS for the rest of the week (click the images to enlarge). We could see potential rainfall far the month to be close to 12 inches!
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GFS
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The GFS models are backing off on the potential for a winter storm after Halloween through the first week of November though they are still trying to bring in an inch or less for the forecast area. The GEFS models are showing around 6 inches for the U.P., 4″ for the NW corner of the lower and 3 inches along the Lake Michigan counties. These models have not been consistent but they should have a better idea by the end of the week.
The Nam is showing frost for the area Thursday morning the GFS keeps us in the 40s for the same period holding back on the frost until Saturday morning with daytime highs in the 40s through November 3rd .
We will keep an eye on this, needless to say we won’t be seeing any more temperatures in the 70s until next April. We may have a shot at the low 60s but our temperatures will be in the upper 40s to the mid 50s for the next week or so.
It sure has been a dark, rainy day! The weekend was beautiful out.
As of 9:30 PM EDT I have a event total of 2.34″ at my house. The winds have now picked up and gusting to 30 MPH at this time the temperature has now dropped to 49°
Slim
Rainfall here at 2.08 for the day, 2.25 since yesterday. Just like that our yard is standing water.
Like a river behind my place.
As of 3 PM my total rain fall amount is 1.29″ I will update from time to time’
Slim
“The GFS models are backing off on the potential for a winter storm after Halloween through the first week of November” I know that the models are just a tool used in weather forecasting but the above statement seems to be a very common sight in the winter time for much of the US. The further out an event is the more that event will change as we get closer to the event.
Now just how much rain are we going to get? we will have to keep an eye on that.
Slim
Hopefully we have an early winter. I would love to be skiing by Thanksgiving!