First off lets take a look at our weekly weather history events:
February 11
1899: Muskegon records their all-time record low of 30 below zero. Grand Rapids falls to 21 below and Lansing 22 below.
1999: A surge of warm air ahead of a cold front brings all-time record high February temperatures to much of Lower Michigan. February records include 67 degrees at Muskegon and 69 degrees at both Grand Rapids and Lansing. Battle Creek hits 72 degrees.
February 12
1967: Temperatures plummet to 24 below zero at Lansing and 16 below at Grand Rapids as arctic high pressure moves across Lower Michigan.
February 13
1938: Heavy rain and warm temperatures prevail for the second day. Lansing records over three inches of rain from the storm and Grand Rapids over two inches and some minor flooding is noted across Lower Michigan.
February 14
1899: The record arctic cold wave begins to abate but not before Grand Rapids sets their all-time record low of 24 below zero.
February 15
1954: A two-day surge of warm air into Lower Michigan peaks with record highs of 61 degrees at Grand Rapids and 60 at Lansing.
February 16
1981: Lower Michigan is in the midst of a long period of thawing weather with lows above freezing and highs mostly in the 50s from the 16th to the 20th.
February 17
1973: Arctic air is in force across Lower Michigan with record lows of 19 below at Grand Rapids. Muskegon falls to 14 below zero, just shy of the record low for the day of 15 below set in 1904.
1979: A long spell of frigid weather during January and February results in Lake Michigan freezing over almost completely for the only time on record.
I have a sneaking suspicion we will be losing our snow pack over the next couple weeks as temperatures begin to creep to above normal and mother nature lulls us into a sense of false security thinking winter is over. Forecast models for the end of the month into March are showing temperatures to go south again. To early to tell or give any guarantees. My wife and I were married in early March and we had to drive in a blizzard to get to our destination so snow is a possibility throughout March. Another fun fact for this year is that Easter is on April Fools Day so I don’t know if we should look at this in trepidation or not, hmmmm.
High pressure will bring fair weather today. Low pressure will track south of Lower Michigan on Thursday with rain changing to snow by Friday.
Primary forecast issue in the near term is for transition of precip type from rain to snow Thursday night as colder air filters back in. For today…low level moisture advects in on southwest flow late this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings continue to show the moisture is shallow with the DGZ unsaturated…so only drizzle or light rain is expected.
The northern and southern streams remain separate through Thursday with Lower Michigan on the northern periphery of the precip shield of a sfc low tracking across the Ohio Valley. Bulk of the rain looks to remain south of the Michigan border and light rain showers across the forecast area, with a change to snow beginning by evening across the northern tier and working south to the southern tier by Friday morning. Only light accums expected through Friday including a period of northwest flow lake effect snow showers into the afternoon.
Not a bad day “weather wise”. We have a significant amount of snow to melt.
FYI Geeks and Freaks
UPDATE 1: Storm Watch Length now Increased to 48 hours. The info below has been updated.
Charged Particles from Sun heading towards Earth.
48 hours: 5 Kp possible.
When does the Aurora storm watch begin?
The 48 hour magnetic storm watch began 1 hours and 44 minutes ago.
>>>>BREAKING WEATHER NEWS>>>>All of the teleconnectors show winter will be returning later this month! The AO will be tanking along with a negative NOA = tons of COLD and SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I absolutely love it ! Rock n Roll will never die baby!
https://i.imgflip.com/1dxet4.jpg
There is just WARMTH as far as the eye can see!!
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif
BRING IT!!!
It should be a wild Spring with plenty of SNOW chances!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
That map is like a month old!
You know, I never even bother to look at the dates. I just assume that the only the recent maps would be posted.
Bring it on! Possible heavy SNOW is on the way for next week!!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png
Rain.
http://wx.woodtv.com/weather/8forecast_640x480.jpg
From GRR NWS:
Several short waves
ejecting out of the Rockies trough will induce waves of low pressure
across the Missouri Valley which will move along the frontal
boundary over the cwa and produce several rounds of rain from late
Monday through Wednesday.
Let it MELT…Let IT Melt…
https://media1.tenor.com/images/b408730e65fd4a9f8ab1a15486689544/tenor.gif?itemid=5384719
👍
It is sunny and a very mild 47° here at my house. The last reading at the airport was 43°
Getting a lot of snow melt off the roof still a lot of snow on the ground but parts of the road are now showing. Both here at my house and at the airport today is the warmest day since January 27th
Slim
No snow in sight! Mid December to mid February looks like the heart of winter this year – with a bunch of warm ups too. Short 2 month winter! Reminds me of last year.
Just a gorgeous day today!! Who couldn’t like Sunny and 40’s in February?!?! Bring on the WARMTH & SPRING!!!
If the CFSv2 is correct it looks to be mild at least into the 2nd week of March
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif
and
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif
The only issue is that it looks to be cold off to our NW
Slim
It is now time to take a look at the total snow fall so far this winter season.
South West Michigan
Muskegon 90.6”
Grand Rapids 66.5”
Central Michigan
Lansing 44.9”
East Michigan
Detroit 52.5”
Flint 65.1”
Saginaw 31.1”
Norther Lower Michigan
Alpena 37.1”
Houghton Lake 34.7”
Gaylord 92.0”
Traverse City 83.3”
Petoskey 98.5”
Upper Michigan
Sault Ste Marie 84.8”
Marquette 116.2”
Herman 131.5”
Slim
Almost all of Northern Michigan is still below average snowfall
https://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd
Happy car wash day! As usual this winter, every time we get a good snowpack, we get a warm spell to melt and ice the snow. Here come the 40’s!