Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Today’s weather will be great for travel and enjoying the feast with family. Don’t forget to give thanks for the bounty of the year with your family.
We’ll see quite a bit of sunshine today as a dry cold front moves through. Temperatures will range from 40 near US-10 to 47 near I-94.
Todays Weather History
1931: A record late warm spell peaks on this date with a high of 70 degrees at Grand Rapids setting a record for the warmest temperature so late in the season. It is the warmest November on record at Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
On November 23, 1880, the overnight temperature dropped to 8 degrees in Detroit, setting the record low temperature for the day. This also marked the sixth day in a row (November 18-23) of record low temperatures, including a record low of 0 degrees set on November 22, 1880, which is also the record low temperature for the entire month of November in Detroit!
1912: The Rouse Simmons was a three-masted schooner famous for sinking during a violent storm on Lake Michigan on this day. The ship was bound for Chicago with a cargo of Christmas trees when it foundered off the coast of Two Rivers, Wisconsin, killing all on board.
Forecast
Forecast Discussion
The short term through Friday continues to look fairly quiet by late November standards. The only sensible weather possible in this period will be some small chances for some flurries/light snow showers along the lakeshore on Friday that we have added to the forecast. Low clouds with some lake help from Lake Michigan with the flow from the SW have been pesky to move out over the south this morning. They are showing signs of shrinking/dissipating/moving out, which should allow for some sunshine this morning and early this afternoon. A dry cold front will drop through the area through mid-afternoon, and will bring back some additional cloud cover. This cloud cover/moisture is just way too shallow to bring any precipitation. As innocuous as the passage of the cold front is with respect to precipitation, it will bring temperatures down quite a bit by Friday morning. 850 mb temps are forecast to drop from 0 to 3C this morning, to around -10C by 12z Friday morning. Normally this would be plenty cold enough for lake effect to kick in. However, the upper jet and deep cold air stays north of the area, and ridging builds in fairly strong in the lower levels. The only small chance for some flurries/light snow showers will come on Friday as a weak short wave drops through. It looks to have just enough forcing, to go with the over lake instability to generate the small chance. The DGZ is mostly unsaturated, and moisture is quite anemic. All of these marginal parameters come with a NNE flow, so most of the chances will be right near the lakeshore and out over the lake. Highs on Friday will only be in the lower 30s. - A taste of winter Forecast concerns in the long term deal with snow chances from Saturday night onward; dry weather is expected Friday night and Saturday. Once the high pressure system overhead drifts east Saturday, southwest flow will increase and we`ll see clouds thicken as they advect northeastward toward the Great Lakes. Frequently in these scenarios, we see precipitation develop in the warm advection pattern and that will likely occur this time too, beginning Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a short wave moving toward Lower MI Sunday followed by a deeper upper trough Sunday night. This looks like a pretty good set up for lake enhanced snow in southwest flow ahead of the short wave and trough. H8 temps near -6c coupled with lake temps around +9c will yield lake-delta t/s in the mid teens. We increased PoPs over NBM especially across the western half of the cwa to account for this. One of the limiting factors though could be that the best lift remains below the DGZ which would limit flake size. Nevertheless, there could be some accums over the western cwa Sunday. Another deep upper trough swings south Monday afternoon through Monday night. Both the ECMWF/GFS show h8 temps falling to around - 14c creating significant over-lake instability. Boundary layer moisture isn`t substantial, but not terrible either. We again increased PoPs to account for some lake effect snow and additional increases may be needed as time goes on. Once the upper trough swings through Tuesday night, temperatures will begin to warm and lake effect snow will diminish.
Hope everyone is having a fantastic Thanksgiving!
No, the Lions are NOT a great team! That is two games in a row they have been outplayed, in fact today’s game was absolutely horrible! If they don’t start playing better they may not even win the division or make the playoff! Turnovers, penalties, no pass rush, poor pass blocking! Give me a break! SOL = same old Lions! Pathetic team, the worst pro sports franchise in history!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
I am thankful for winter and snowstrorms! Bring it!
Happy Thanksgiving to you all and your families.
I am thankful for this site where we can discuss and I learn something all the time!! Thanks to Michael for keeping it going and Slim with his insight and the rest of the crew who makes weather more fun to follow!
Happy Thanksgiving! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/32 there was no rain or snow. The sun was out just 8% of the time. The highest wind speed was 24 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 44/31 the record high of 70 was set in 1931 and the record low of 2 was set in 1956. The wettest November 23 was 1.16” in 2014. The most snow fall of 3.4” was in 1970. The most snow on the ground was 6” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 49/22 and there was 3” of snow on the ground. The current temperature here in MBY is the overnight low so far of 32.
Slim
Happy Thanksgiving, my friends. I hope you have an amazing day with family, food, sports, and maybe even a nap.