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Happy New Year!!

Welcome to 2022

 

With the simple drop of the ball if you will we now head into a new year.  I would like to take this time to wish everyone a very Happy New Year.  Here is a fun fact. “Auld Lang Syne” has its origins in the Scottish language, which explains why so much of it may as well be Greek to most of us. While most people have no idea what they’re singing, nor what it means, one fun fact about “Auld Lang Syne” is that nowhere in the original song is the new year mentioned at all. “Auld Lang Syne” directly translates to “old long since,” meaning, essentially, times gone by. The song “Auld Lang Syne” comes from a Robert Burns poem. Burn was the national poet of Scotland and wrote the poem in 1788, but it wasn’t published until 1799—three years after his death.

Of course, with a new year comes a new month thus it is time to take a look at what we can expect in a average January. In January we start the month out with 9 hours and 5 minutes of daylight and by the end of the month we are at 9 hours and 55 minutes so we will gain almost a hour of daylight.  At Grand Rapids the new 30 year average mean for January is 24.8° The daily H/L starts out at 32.4/21.0 on the first.  Bottoms out at 30.4/17.4 between the 21st and 25th and ends the month at 30.7/17.4. The record highest reading for any January is 66 recorded on January 25th 1950 the coldest low was -22 on January 19th 1994.The lowest maximum for Grand Rapids is -3 on January 15th 1972 the low the next morning was -16. In 1992 to go along with that record low of -22 on the 19th the highs were only 0° on the 18th and -2 on the 19th  In 1990 the coldest it got all month was just 19 that happened 3 times that month. In 2006 the coldest it got was 16. The wettest January at GR was in 2005 when 4.67” of rain and melted snow fell. Of that 27.8” was snow. The driest January at GR was in 1956 with just 0.29” of rain and melted snow. That month just 5.3” of snow fell. The top 5 warmest January’s at Grand Rapids are 1. 1932 (34.4) 2. 1933 (34.0) 3. 2006 (33.2) 4. 1990 (32.0) 5. 2020 31.3. The coldest top 5 are 1. 1912 (11.8) 2. 1918 (12.5) 3. 12.7 (1977) 4. 1994 (14.5) 5 1963 (15.8)

In the snow fall department, the current 30-year average is 22.6” the most snow on the ground in January is 27” in 1978. The top 5 snowiest Januarys are 1. 1999 (46.8) 2. 1997 (45.5”) 3. 1979 (45.5) 4. 1918 (45.0) 5. 2004 (44.2”) The top 5 least snowy are 1. 1933 (0.8”) 2. 1921 (2.1”) 3. 1934 (1.4”) 4. 1932 (1.4) 5. 1944 (3.7”) in more recent times only 4.1” fell in January 2001 even thought that winter Grand Rapids had 98.1” of total snow fall. Last year 9.9” of snow fell.

Slim


Forecast Discussion

- Snowfall still on track this afternoon into Sunday morning -

The forecast remains on track this morning as we are still
expecting a solid 3 to 6 inch snow across the southern half of
our forecast area (I-96 corridor to the south. QPF has come down
just a bit in the last 24 hours, but overall this still looks like
a solid advisory event and our snow totals have not changed much.
We never thought this was going to be a warning event which is why
we did not issue a watch. We remain consistent in thinking
warning snows are not expected in our area. The main concern with
this event has always been travel concerns in the heart of the
snow which will come this evening and tonight. The silver lining
is that the heaviest snow and biggest impacts will come on a
Saturday night and early Sunday morning when travel is more
towards the lower end of the scale. A solid north wind will flood
cold air into this event hour by hour. Surface temperatures will
be in the 20s for the most part at the onset of the event late
this afternoon, falling into the teens as we work through the
night. So, travel impacts remain the biggest concern as salt will
become less and less effective as we work through the night.

As for the particulars, the wave that drives our snow is moving
through the Panhandle of Texas early this morning, being kicked
northeast by a trough digging through the Rockies. The shortwave
slides through the Southern Great Lakes this evening. This
shortwave when combined with a coupled upper jet and isentropic
lift should produce a period of moderate snow this evening. The
deformation zone snow then works through the area overnight. The
synoptic snow should wind down into Sunday morning. Still think
the 3-6 should work out over much of our south. Snow tapers as you
head north in our forecast area, with only an inch or so expected
up towards U.S. 10.

- Period of lake effect snow on Sunday -

A dominant band that forms tonight in north-northeast flow out
over the lake is kicked inland in the morning to midday hours of
Sunday. This could briefly bring moderate to locally heavy snow
for a short time on Sunday in our western couple rows of counties.
These bands, especially as migratory as this one will be, usually
do not put down more than an inch or two in the heaviest swaths.
It will be something we keep an eye on heading into Sunday.

- Cold with lake effect snow mid to late next week -

We are still looking at upper troughing taking shape in the mid
week time frame. A cold front moves through the area on Wednesday
which will be accompanied by some synoptic snow. Northwest flow
behind this cold front will push Delta T`s into the 20s C. So
significant over lake instability will be present with upper
shortwaves working through the flow most likely. A cold and snowy
period looks to be in place for Wednesday into Friday.

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Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Great snowstorm despite Andy trying his best to downplay the storm! Incredible!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

The blowing of the snow seems to have let up here. Roads still slick but visibility is improved.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The heavy snow bands have made it right up into GR and no signs of letting up. It looks to me that the moderate to heavy snow will be pounding Kent County for hours on end!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Nice 5 day snow map! A few inches tonight and then more on Wednesday and throw in a some lake effect for good measure! The pattern has officially changed! The warm weather nuts mights as well go crawl under a rock and hibernate!

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php?STATIONID=GRR

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Breaking Weather News>>>>>slippery and dangerous roads, great call by the NWS for the WWA! This is a very nice moderate snowstorm, despite the naysayers and warm weather nuts! Winter is here and we will be seeing tons of snow this month! Fantastic!

Andy W
Andy W

comment image

Lolol!! 2 to 3 inches in my area! Guess this qualifies as a storm around here now?? Did we all move to the Florida Panhandle??? Give me a break!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

You must not live in Kent county! Give me a BREAK!!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Current Conditions = moderate to heavy snow, we are getting hammered! I love it!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Sheesh every time I look, the forecasted snowfall gets smaller. NWS GR now only says 3” for here.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

You will see about 4 to 5 inches!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The snow intensity is picking up and in about an hour or so we will be getting pummeled with snow! Incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow! Bring it!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Happy New Year…from an 81 degree beach. Jet Skis all afternoon.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Forget the jet skis, I will be snow skiing tomorrow baby!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Happy New Year, folks. The warm air the past 24 hours, coupled with the rain overnight, melted pretty much all of the snow on the ground. Mother Nature now has a blank canvas. Let’s watch her work her magic.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Happy 2022! I have to say the NWS has done a really good job advertising today’s system. They have been really consistent in forecasted totals (I think their discussion from like 6 days ago mentioned 3-6 inches). And given a ton of warning on possible travel impacts for New Year’s Day.

Bernie (Hamilton)
Bernie (Hamilton)

Happy New Year to all! I’ve used two rapid test kits in the last seven days (one for my 19 y.o. son, on Christmas morning, and the other one last night on my 18 y.o. daughter). Thankfully, both were negative. My N.Years resolution is to not buy any more of those covid test kits lol…

*SS*
*SS*

Bernie…wish that was the case!!! Glad they are negative!!! You sadly could still be in window. I know I tested one day and dang 4 days later positive (I had some symptoms that made me test days later)… Best Wishes!!!

*SS*
*SS*

Happy 2022!!! Took down last of the blow ups but left lights. It looks so dark without the …plus snow on top of my lights is the best. Those will stay up for a little while longer!!!
All the best to each one of you this New Year!!! Thanks to everyone for sharing your weather knowledge and being a great place!!!

MichaelV (Otsego)

Happy New Year!
Yesterday’s high in Otsego was 43.5 and the low was 33. We currently stand at 34.
added NWS graphics and discussion to post

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

1. The U of M game = horrendous!
2. The weather = fantastic!
3. We are transitioning into some real winter weather this weekend and next week!
4. The storm for tonight will only give GR around 3 or 4 inches of snow, but we will take it! Beware the roads will be hazardous!
5. Winter is the best season in MI!
6. By the time this snow season is over we will have above normal snowfall! Incredible!
7. Rock n roll will live forever!