At sunrise, Punxsutawney Phil will leave his burrow and look for his shadow for the 139th time. While the tradition remains popular in the 21st century, studies have found no consistent association between a groundhog seeing its shadow and the subsequent arrival time of spring-like weather. The weather lore was brought from German-speaking areas where the badger is the forecasting animal, while in Hungary for example the bear serves the same purpose and badgers were only watched when bears were not around. It is related to the lore that clear weather on the Christian festival of Candlemas forebodes a prolonged winter.
A quick burst of snow is expected this morning. Areas north of I-96 have the best chance for 1 to 3 inches with areas south of I-96 of a trace to an inch of snow. A brief period of freezing drizzle is also possible before the snow ends and temperatures warm into the upper 30s to low 40s. It doesn’t appear Phil will see his shadow today.
Weather History
1868: It is a chilly Groundhog Day as Lansing sets their all-time record low with a reading of 37 below zero.
On February 2, 2022, a winter storm produced a swath of heavy snow from Lansing to Owosso to Flint to Caro with 10 to 12 inches reported.
On February 2, 2011, the Groundhog Day Blizzard affected a large area of the country from Oklahoma to the New England States, including southeast Michigan. The snow started during the evening hours of the 1st and continued into the 2nd. Snowfall accumulations generally ranging from 6 to 12 inches. Isolated higher amounts were recorded across the Thumb and Tri-Cities Region. Northeast winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph caused some blowing and drifting of snow. Frequent wind gusts to 35 mph came off Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay, leading to blizzard conditions north of the I-69 corridor. Some of the higher snowfall reports across the area included: Pigeon 14 inches; Port Huron 14 inches; Lapeer 13.6 inches; Lexington 13.5 inches; Bridgeport 13 inches; Mayville 13 inches; Pinconning 12 inches; Flushing 11 inches; Lake Orion 10 inches; and Romulus 9 inches.
Also on Groundhog Day in 1967, Flint measured 9.3″ of snow from another snowstorm that occurred February 1st-2nd. The groundhog probably had trouble getting out of his burrow that morning, let alone see his shadow.
Also, on the 2nd back in 1936, this marked the last day of a streak of 11 days (Jan 23-Feb 2, 1936) with daily temperatures colder than 19 degrees!
Forecast Discussion
- Light snow this morning Local and regional radar shows a band of light to moderate snow from Frankfort southwest to near Joliet, IL slowly moving east. There`s a band of 25-30+ dBz indicative of quarter to half mile visibilities in moderate to occasionally, heavy snow. This band is ahead of an upper short wave and falling in conjunction with the warm air advection wing of the low pressure system moving across southern Canada. The band of heavier snow will track across the cwa this morning dumping a quick inch or two mainly from I-96 northward and around a half inch south of there. Roads may become slick this morning from the snow. However, as temperatures climb into the upper 30s this afternoon, impacts from the snow will diminish. - Light snow north Monday The trailing cold front from the southern Canada low will drop south into Central Michigan tonight and act as a runway for a fast moving area of low pressure to race across the cwa Monday. This baroclinic zone will be found near the US-10 corridor and a mix of precipitation is expected from light snow north of US-10 to mixed rain snow south of there to around M-46 and generally rain south of M-46. Around a half inch of snow seems possible along the US-10 corridor. - Wintry mix Wednesday/Thursday We`re still watching the evolution of the mid week system that could bring some moderate impacts to the region in the form of freezing rain and snow. This is an interesting setup Wednesday into Thursday. The Monday wave that scoots by will drag colder air south behind it which will be in place Wednesday afternoon as low pressure in the Plains tracks toward Lower MI. It`s worth noting that the GFS is farther south than the ECMWF and so would develop more snow than freezing rain. The ECMWF ensemble mean low tracks and are farther north and bring more rain/freezing rain into the cwa. The ECMWF also develops a few hundred joules of MUCAPE over northern Indiana Wednesday afternoon and night and so we could potentially see some thunder not too far away. Given expected surface temperatures in the upper 20s Wednesday night and Thursday morning over the southern cwa and colder farther north, freezing rain looks like a distinct possibility and at least minor impacts look plausible. Current ensemble probabilities of at least 0.05 inches of freezing rain are in the 30-50 percent range from Kalamazoo-Lansing and southward. We`ll be able to fine tune details as the event gets closer.
4 more maybe 5 snow systems on the way!! GREAT CRACKERS…INDY
And that is just the beginning!
The snow just keeps coming! What a winter and tons more on the way this month! Wow, just wow, WOW!!!
6 more weeks of Winter Phil said this morning.. sure feels like it outside … Winter Weather at its best …INDY
At least 6more weeks! Maybe about 8 more weeks!
Woody, Michigan’s groundhog, said early spring.
Anybody named after Woody Hayes cannot be trusted! In fact I would not believe a word that “Woody” says! Winter will be rocking for 2 more months! Bring it!
Is it sunny in PA? No shadows here. Lol
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler’s Knob Sunday morning.
“It’s Groundhog Day and maybe life is on a loop but I miss my burrow, I miss my coop. So I’m heading back down, there’s a shadow up here. Get ready for six more weeks of winter this year,” Phil’s prediction read.
Slim
THE GRAND RAPIDS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 1 2025 The H/L yesterday was 29/18 there was no rain or snow fall. The snow depth was just a Trace. It was a mostly sunny day but the sunshine % is not available at this time. The highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 50 was set in 2020 the coldest high of 2 was in 1996. The record low of -11 was in 1971 the warmest low is 33 set in several years the last time was… Read more »