Halloween Forecast

Congrats to the Spartans on their win yesterday,  I am a die-hard Wolverine fan for the past 40+ years – I found the game to be one of the better games between the teams – nuff said.

We have 38° at 7 am with partly cloudy skies.  Yesterday we had a quick peek of the sun other than that it was cloudy with patchy drizzle.  Our high/low was 53/47 yesterday.

Skies will cloud up this morning as a cold front approaches from the west.  There is about a 30% chance of rain as it moves through though I believe it won’t amount to much.  The main worry for the trick or treaters will be the gusty winds as high as 25 to 30 mph.

-- Patchy fog early then daytime showers --

Already some patchy fog, locally dense, showing up on satellite
in parts of Central Lower Michigan. Clear skies, light surface
winds, and moisture increasing appreciably in the low levels early
this morning will support areas of fog until after sunrise mainly
north of I-96, but can`t rule out some farther south.

Stratocumulus development is expected by late in the morning as
low level moisture advection and lift increases with the arrival
of a cold front. Cold air advection during the afternoon and
thermodynamics favorable for low-level convective mixing both over
Lake Michigan and inland will make for a breezy day as some 25 to
30 mph winds above the surface will be available to mix down as
gusts.

Scattered lake-enhanced rain showers are probable and the showers
should carry far inland with help from a tendency for larger-
scale dynamic lift in the cloud layer. The cloud layer will be
rather shallow, capped off at 5000 or 6000 feet and 0 to -5
Celsius. As such... graupel, lightning, and heavy downpours seem
unlikely.

-- Cool week with occasional showers --

The North American pattern for much of this week features an
omega block, with the upper level ridge over the Canadian Rockies
and downstream trough/low over Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes.
Cooler than normal air will be entrenched over our area for the
next several days.

Monday will be another breezy day with lake effect clouds, though
drier in the low levels and without much synoptic scale lift, so
not much precip is expected and maybe a little sun. Shortwave
reinforcement of the trough on Tuesday and Tuesday night will
provide better thermodynamics for lake effect, and cumulus should
finally be able to grow into the DGZ. Looks cold enough for snow
to start mixing in, and perhaps some locations could see their
first light coating of snow Tuesday night.

Tendency for dry weather Thursday and Friday as the block breaks
down and ridging/high pressure moves over our region. The spread
of solutions grows into the weekend with dependency on the
evolution of a developing southern-stream low. A minority of
ensemble members give us moderate precip amounts over the weekend.