We are now at the half way point of November and yesterday was also the start of firearm deer season in Michigan. Here is some weather history for the start of deer season at several locations in Michigan.
Growing up in Bay City and Alpena, the start of the firearm deer season was always a big day. In Alpena, it was being careful while out in the yard and hearing gun shots all day long, In Bay City it was watching the traffic on in the early years US 23 and US 10 and later I 75. In my late teens, I 75 ended at Bay City and there was always the traffic back on the first day of hutting season, and in Alpena in my time there is was be careful when outside. In fact, we did not play outside during deer season as there were always a lot of stray bullets flying around. So that said here is the weather records for several Michigan locations on the first day of firearm deer season
Grand Rapids…..in Grand Rapids the average high/low for November 15th is 46/33 the record warmest November 15th was 68 in 1990 the coldest Maximum temperature was 18° in 1933 ( November 15, 1933 was a very cold day across ) the record coldest low of 10 also happened in 1933. As for snow? The most that fell in GR on the 15th was 4” in 1993 and the most on the ground was 5” in 1974 the last time GR had one inch or more was just 1” in 1995’ By the end of firearm season and the end of November on the 30th the average high/low is 39/28° The warmest end of deer season was 64° in 1998 the coldest maximum was 17° in 1896 as there may not have been deer season then the coldest in a actual deer season was 18° in 1976. The coldest was +6° in 1958. The most snow on the ground was 14” in 1940.
Off to our north at Houghton Lake the average high on the 15th is 43 and the average low is 28 the record high was 63 in 1953 and the coldest maximum temperature was 20° in that cold year of 1933 the coldest was +2° in 1916. The snowiest was 8.5” in 1933 and the most on the ground was 13” in 1933. By the end of the deer season the average high/low at Houghton Lake is 36/23 the warmest end of deer season was 61 in 1998 and the coldest maximum was 12° in 1976 the coldest low was -2° in 1936. The most snow on the ground was 13” in 1995.
Over in Alpena the average high at the start of deer season is 43° and the average low is 28° the warmest day was 65° in 2001 and the coldest maximum was 17 in yes 1933 and the coldest low was a bone chilling -6° in 1933 the most snow fall was 3” in 1976 the most on the ground was 7” in 1916 and the last time there was one or more inches on the ground was 3” in 2003. At Alpena the average end of deer season high/low is 37/23 the warmest was 63° in 1998 and the coldest maximum was 17 in 1976. The coldest low was +3° in 1958. The most snow on the ground was 17” in 1966.
Up at the Sault the average high is 39 and the average low is 27. The record high is 61 set in 1990 the coldest maximum was 11 in 1933 the coldest low was -2 also in 1933. The most snow fall was 6.7” in 1965 and the most on the ground was 18” in 2014 and that was also the last time there was one inch or more as the Soo did not have snow on the ground last year. At the Sault the end of deer season average high/low are 32/21 the warmest was 59 in 1998 and the coldest maximum was a bone chilling +6 in 1936 and the coldest low was -10 also in 1936 it was -5° in 1958. As for the most snow on the ground that was 13” in 1933 but there has been 11” on the ground in 2014 and 12” on the ground in 1989 and 1976.
Up at Marquette the average high on the 15th is 42 and the average low is 30 the record high was a warm 69 in 1999 and the coldest maximum was 21 in 1995 the record low was +5 in 1991. The most snow fall was 4.6” was 1938 the most on the ground was 12” in 1993 the last time there was one inch or mote was in 2014 with 4” on the ground. The end of the season average high/low at Marquette is 32/20 the warmest was 57 in 1998 the coldest maximum was 9° in 2007 the coldest low was -2° in 1976 the most snow on the ground was 18” in 1991.
This year November has been very warm and somewhat wet. The current mean at Grand Rapids is 48.4 that is a departure of +5.6. The high so far this month is 68 on the 2nd and the low so far is 28 on the 5th there has been 2.36” of rainfall that is a departure of +0.69” there has been no snowfall that is a departure of -2.3” for November and for the season Grand Rapids in -2.6”
I hope this gives you a idea of how varied the last half of November can be in Michigan.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
346 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUD TRENDS AND LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
- ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
- CLOUD TRENDS AND LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
STRATOCUMULUS IS PREVALENT THIS MORNING STRETCHING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS LIFT SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OUT AS THE RIDGE GOES EAST AND
SOUTH FLOW TAKES OVER. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ITS PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIMITED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
STILL A BIT DISJOINTED IN THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET WHERE THERE IS A
DRY WEDGE BETWEEN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 10,000 FEET AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5,000 FEET. BOTTOM LINE IS WE
WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 400AM
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE ONLY 20-40 PERCENT. THE
FACTORS THAT POINT TOWARDS LIMITED PRECIPITATION ARE THE FACT THAT
THE UPPER WAVE MAINLY PASSES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIMITED MOISTURE.
- ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK,
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM TX AND
PASSING THROUGH MN/WI ON TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND WILL CARRY HIGH POPS (70 TO
100 PCT) FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT WE SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE SFC SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND
TROUGHING STALLS OVER THE GRTLKS RGN WHILE WE AWAIT THE BIGGER MID-
LATE WEEK SYSTEM. WE COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES FOR A HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/POSITIONING
OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SINCE THE JET STREAK
CAUSING IT IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF AND UP NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
GENERAL IDEA THOUGH IS THAT AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE
NEARBY/OVERHEAD WE SEE POPS RAMP UP OVER 70 PERCENT AGAIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE IDEA OF A TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE
CURLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SETTING UP OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
ALL RAIN AS THE COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTH OF MI. HOWEVER CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME WET SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURING UNDER THE UPPER LOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY IF COLD ENOUGH AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AND
HEAVIER PRECIP RATES DEVELOP.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITHIN THE
COOL, MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY THAT TIME.
Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids
Today
Cloudy, with a high near 53. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
A slight chance of showers between 1am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 38. West wind 3 to 8 mph.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Showers. Low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday
Showers. High near 59. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Wednesday
Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Thursday
Showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.
Thursday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.
Winter rocks, who wouldn’t want snow in the winter! Bring it!