The only thing I dislike about fall is leaf raking. I mulch most of them with my lawn tractor but there are a lot of them which still have to be raked and removed from the premises. Luckily there is a large woods surrounding my property which gratefully accept the bounty so I don’t have to burn them. The black walnut trees drop their leaves first in the fall followed by the maples, the rest hang on until early November before they grudgingly drop theirs.
We have 37° at 7 this morning. Yesterday’s high was 53° and the low was 31° for our first morning below freezing this fall.
Most areas will remain dry through Tuesday. However, a few showers or sprinkles are possible tonight, mainly near/south of I-94. Daytime highs will rebound through Tuesday, then rain showers will arrive for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will return late in the coming work week.
Forecast Discussion
-- Chance of light rain this evening -- A milder day with a light WSW breeze is expected today. In the mid/upper levels, a shortwave trough will pass overhead during the evening while a weak cold front at the surface sags southward. More of the HREF member models and also more global ensemble members have come on board with sprinkles or light rain (trace to isolated 0.10 inch) possible this evening mainly after sunset. This precipitation would develop from a cloud deck based at 7 or 8 thousand feet, which could have a few thousand feet of neutral stability or weak instability to work with, up to temperatures as cold as -10 C, amid the weak uplift provided by the shortwave trough. Below this cloud deck, the air will be fairly dry but not overwhelmingly so. With all that in mind, expect some mix of virga, sprinkles, and narrow streaks of lightly measurable rainfall from this. -- Milder midweek with likely rain Wednesday -- Progressive synoptic wave pattern the next few days will transport milder air from the western US over our area. Monday will be sunny with light winds, then Tuesday will likely be the warmest day (near 70) but with increasing clouds. A robust trough and surface cold front digging into south-central Canada and the upper Midwest will set up a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms... first Tuesday night to Wednesday morning with low-level-jet warm air and moisture transport, then Wednesday evening with the cold front, and then lingering lake-effect showers underneath the upper-level low Thursday to Friday. Severe weather chances Wednesday seem to be on the low side given modest instability (most of it not surface-based, also modest downdraft CAPE), but strong wind fields in the mid-levels may support blustery winds occasionally making it to the surface. -- Cold pattern late week -- The trough will close up into an elongated low between southern Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes as the wave pattern across North America becomes blocked Thursday and Friday. It could be cold enough for snow to briefly mix in with lake-effect rain showers at times on Friday, especially in the higher terrain between Grand Rapids and Cadillac. There is a large amount of ensemble spread in the temperatures for Saturday, as milder air could briefly wash over us between the departing low and the reinforcing low with cold air that won`t be far behind for early next week.
Nice day today. Opened up the windows to get some fresh air in here.
The streak continues. 165 days since the last day with a sub 50 degree high temp.
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The words of the day – “below normal temp pattern”!
With the official low of 30 yesterday that ended the growing season for the summer of 2022. The was the earliest day for the 1st low of 30 or less since 2009. The official high yesterday was 53. There was no rain fall and 34% of possible sunshine. The low overnight both here in MBY and at GRR was 36. At the current time it is 36 and clear here in my yard. I was in Muskegon late last night and when I left there the temperature was 57, by the time I got home (26 miles away) it was 39 so it just shows how much the lake can warm up the lake shore at times in the fall and winter season. Also of note it that the fall color is ahead of where it has been in many of the recent past falls.
Slim
Definitely looks like a more wet pattern coming into the Great Lakes region which I alluded to a couple days ago. And yes for some there could be wet snow flakes but to early to know that yet. One thing that looks likely is a reinforcing shot of cold air. It’s possible towards the 16-18th we could struggle to get to 45 on a day or two. Quite a ways out so we shall see on that.