Tomorrow we will put meteorological summer behind us and entered the meteorological fall season. The next few weeks there is still a chance of some warm days but after the 15th to the 20th there will be a noticeable decline in both daylight and temperatures.
Here are some averages for Grand Rapids for meteorological fall. The current 30-year average each of the fall months are September, Average mean temperature 63.5 Precipitation 3.43” snow fall 0. October average mean temperature 51.5 Precipitation 4.02” snow fall 0.3” November average mean temperature 40.0 precipitation 3.10” snow fall 7.1” The shorter 15-year average temperature for September is 64.2 precipitation 3.38” snow fall 0. For October the average temperature is 51.7 precipitation 5.04” and snow fall 0.2” For November the average temperature is 40.3 precipitation is 2.50” and snow fall 5.0” now looking back at the old 1981/2010 averages September old mean was 62.8 precipitation 4.28 snow fall 0. For October temperature 51.0 precipitation 3.26 snow fall 0.5 for November temperature 40.1 precipitation 3.51 and snow fall 6.8” over the last 40 years the temperature has moved upward, and precipitation has been more up and down. Snow fall has decreased a little.
The current 30-year average mean for meteorological fall at Grand Rapids is 51.6 the new 15 year average is 52.1. The record warmest autumn was in 1931 with a mean of 57.5° The coldest was in 1976 with a mean of 45.8. The wettest was in 1988 with 17.68” the driest was in 1956 with just 2.59” the most snow fall was in 2014 with 31.0” (all of which fell in November) the least snowfall was a trace in several years the last time was in 1984.
For the month of September as stated above the 30-year average mean is 63.5 the 15 year mean is 64.2. Since 1892 the warmest mean is 69.0 in 1931 the mean was 68.1 in 1933 and 1908, in 1921 the mean was 67.9 in 1906 it was 67.5 and in 2015 it was 67.2 for the top 5 warmest. The coldest mean in September is the 56.2 in 1918 with 56.4 in 1974, 56.5 in 1993, 56.9 in 1975 and the 58.1 in 1949 being the 5 coldest. Last year the mean was 65.6. In the last 5 years 4 of the 5 have been warmer than average. The hottest day in September was the 98 on September 2nd 1913. It reached 97 in 1954, 1953 and 1939 and 96 in 2017, 1960 and 1927 for the hottest days in September. Over the years it has reached 90 or better in 51 years so we can still get a hot day in September. The most days of 90 or better is 7 in 1931 there were 6 days in 2017. The last time it reached 90 or better in September was in 2018. The record low for the month is a cold 27 on September 28th 1991. It has gotten below 30 in September a total of 7 years and 32 or below in 24 years and below 35 (for a frost?) a total of 34 years. I have a picture on my phone of frost on September 19, 2020, when the official low of 36 was reported. The wettest September was in 1986 when a total of 11.85” of rain fell at Grand Rapids and the driest was in 1979 when just a trace was reported.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/69 There was a trace of rainfall the highest wind gust was just 22 MPH out of the W. The sun was out 24% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 79/59 the record high of 97 was set in 1953 the coldest high of 65 was set in 1915 and 1903 the record low of 43 was set in 1915 and 1967 the warmest low of 74 was set in 1998. The most rainfall of 1.02” fell in 1975
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
340 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– START OF A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND DRIER AIR TODAY
– UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES DRY WEATHER NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2024
– START OF A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND DRIER AIR TODAY
A FAIR END TO CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL
BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, THOUGH STILL AROUND 60, AND SHOULD DROP
FURTHER INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY. WITH A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES, THE
AIR BEHIND TONIGHT’S COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES MAKING IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MICHIGAN WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
– UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES DRY WEATHER NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT TONIGHT IN SHOWING A SPRAWLING AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THAT SAME PERIOD GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL FACTORS OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND MODEL
TIME/HEIGHT PROGS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD OUT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COOLEST TIME FRAME BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME DIP INTO THE +6C TO +8C WHICH IS
FAIRLY COOL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. WE NOW HAVE MID 40S LOWS IN THE
FORECAST FOR LABOR DAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS
ON LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 70 OVER CENTRAL LOWER. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids
Today
Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 60. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 77. North northwest wind 7 to 11 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Labor Day
Sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 49.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.