Global Climate in February 2025 3/16

Yesterday we peaked at 73° and the morning low was 48°.  We had .43 of an inch of rain which brings us to 1.45 inches for the month.  Today will not be as pleasent as we have had the past few days.  Low pressure moving across eastern lower Michigan will bring in colder air with rain mixing with or changing to snow today. Temperatures will be in the 30s.

Below is the climate summary for February.

February Highlights

• Temperatures were above average over much of the globe, particularly in the Arctic, but much below average over western Canada and the central United States.
• Global and Arctic sea ice extent ranked lowest on record for February.
• Twelve named storms occurred across the globe in February, which set an all-time record for the month.

Temperature

The February global surface temperature was 2.27°F (1.26°C) above the 20th-century average of 53.8°F (12.1°C), making it the third-warmest February on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a 4% chance that 2025 will rank as the warmest year on record.

It was the fourth-warmest February for the global land air temperature and the second-warmest February for the global ocean surface temperature. Global temperatures have cooled in recent months as a La Niña episode, the cold phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), developed. Global temperatures tend to be cooler during periods of La Niña in comparison to periods with an El Niño present.

February temperatures were above average across much of the global land surface, particularly over the Arctic, central Eurasia, southern South America and central Australia. Much of western Canada, the central United States, eastern Europe, the Middle East and China were colder than average. Sea surface temperatures were above average over most areas, while much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific was below average (consistent with La Niña), as were parts of the southeast Pacific, western North Atlantic and the northwestern Indian Oceans.

Snow Cover

The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in February was slightly below average. Snow cover over North America and Greenland was below average (by 50,000 square miles), and Eurasia was also below average (by 40,000 square miles). Areas of below-average snow cover include the central United States and much of Europe.

Sea Ice

Global sea ice extent was the smallest in the 47-year record at 6.16 million square miles, which was 770,000 square miles below the 1991–2020 average. Arctic sea ice extent was below average (by 430,000 square miles), ranking lowest on record, and Antarctic extent was below average (by 340,000 square miles), tied with 2022 for third lowest on record.

Tropical Cyclones

Twelve named storms occurred across the globe in February, which set an all-time record for the month. A record five named storms occurred in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Five named storms occurred in the Australian region, as well as four in the Southwest Pacific.

Weather History

1945: The warmest March on record in southwest Lower Michigan produces record high temperatures in the 70s.

On March 16, 2004, a snowstorm began over Southeast Lower Michigan that dumped 7.0 inches of snow on Port Huron. The storm lasted through the 17th.

Forecast Discussion

- Colder with light snow today

Winter isn`t quite done yet. Latest surface analysis shows low
pressure over central IN moving northeast. As this low moves
toward DET, it`ll drag a cold front that extends from Saginaw southwest
to Marshall through the rest of the cwa and colder air will
continue to pour into the cwa. Temperatures have fallen into the
upper 30s at LDM but remain in the mid 50s on the east side of the
front. Highs today will be nearly 30 degrees colder than
yesterday as h8 temps plummet from +9c to -10c by 00z Monday.

Radar shows quite a bit of precipitation yet to fall as the upper
low is near STL. Deformation precipitation is coming in a bit
heavier than models previously forecasted which will likely
provide a boost to snow totals today over the northwest cwa. We
have 1-3 inches in the grids northwest of a Grand Haven to Clare
line; highest totals will be northwest of a Whitehall to Evart
line on lawns and fields, but no accumulations expected over the
southeast cwa. Recent warm weather and higher sun angle will be
mitigating factors.

- Warmer mid week, then colder again

Another strong wave will cross the Rockies mid week resulting in
lee side cyclogenesis by Tuesday morning. This time of year,
these storms can become quite deep due to the strong temperature
gradient on either side of it. This will be no different. South
flow will increase and warmer air will be drawn northward into the
cwa. We`ll be looking at highs in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain will develop Wednesday as the low tracks toward Wisconsin and
given LI`s just below 0c and a few hundred joules/kg MUCAPE, a
thunderstorm will be possible.

The associated cold front is progd to move through the cwa
Wednesday night and rain will change over the snow before ending.
Highs Thursday will be only in the 30s. This time of year cold
weather doesn`t last too long and we`ll climb into the 50s by the
weekend.

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