I have been taking a look at some of the longer range forecast models through March and reading some articles from some of the well know METS then try to roll it into a ‘speculative’ guess of my own. I do believe we will average above normal for the rest of the month temperature and precipitation wise. I do wonder with the fight between cold and warm air masses if we may see a stormy period over the next two weeks. Heading into March there are two different models, one from the NOAA CPC which guesses a 50/50 chance of near normal temperatures and the CFS which brings ridging back into place with below normal temperatures east of the Rockies. As I said a couple posts ago my wife and I were married in early March during a blizzard so we could still see snow but I don’t think we will see much over the next couple weeks.
For the short term a northerly flow of colder air will dominate the weather today. Abundant clouds and a few snow showers will accompany the arrival of this airmass. A large area of high pressure over the Central Plains will build rapidly east today and tonight. This fair weather system will dry our airmass out. Another cold front will push in from the northwest later Saturday into Saturday night possibly leading to some snow showers.
There is good agreement in the models initially with deep southwest flow pushing into the Great Lakes region Monday. A surface boundary will become parallel to this upper flow and rest from roughly Chicago to Alpena. Gulf moisture will continually be advected along this front and periods of rain, occasionally heavy will move across the CWA.
The Monday and Monday night periods may see a half inch to one inch of rain alone, with additional steady rains Tuesday into Tuesday night. However the Tuesday/Tuesday night rains seem more pegged for the SE CWA as the front slowly sags SE through the two day period.
All and all, with the combination of the rest of the snow melting, and this rain, hydro issues seem very possible from mid week onward. One thing we will have to watch for, as this rain first arrives, late Sunday night/early Monday, we may have some areas still below freezing and a brief period of freezing rain will be possible a couple hours either side of daybreak Monday. Not expected too much glaze, but it could coincide with the Monday morning commute.
We’re in Holland for the boy’s hockey tournament. I’m surprised at how much less snow there is from Portland westward as compared to our place.
Up here in “snow country” Traverse City! They have less snow up here than we have at home! Lots of bare ground up here!
Goodbye Winter & Snow”……Hello Spring Time Temps!!!!,
I love it…..
What a winter! I am heading up to Nubs Nob for the weekend! Great skiing conditions and great winter temps in the 20’s and 30’s. I will be out enjoying WINTER while the warm weather fanatic try and wish winter away! SNOW = AWESOME!
https://www.nubsnob.com/livecam/
You know it’s a bad winter when Rocky only talks about places 200 miles north. Nub’s is always a good time though – but expensive and super crowded Presidents’ Day weekend!
Very informative post. We lost more than half our snow in the past 48 hours. We received a dusting this morning. My kind of snow. I don’t mind it snowing when it’s 30° out.
February has definitely been a month to remember with well above normal snowfall and all signs point towards a rocking March with plenty of snowstorm chances! WOW what a winter so far!
What exactly stands out that we are going to remember? That we had snow in February? That it all melts as fast as it came in February? With the outlook for the next two weeks of mild and little to no snow, we are not looking at any totals that are noteworthy for the entire month. Unless the rain Michael was talking about ends up being something substantial in the 5 to 6 inch range, nothing different than a typical February other than perhaps more ups and downs temp wise.
Mid 50’s next week. And then continued warmth after that according to CPC. A February to remember, indeed.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
CPC says normal temps for March too, so that means plenty of 40’s and 50’s!! BRING IT!!
And I don’t see many, if any, days below 32 degrees in March right now.