Freezing Drizzle & Light Snow Today

Yesterday we had a fairly warm 37° after recovering from a low of 14°.  This week will feature another rollercoaster ride with temps ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s.  Not really seeing anything of note until we get towards the end of the week when the clipper cavalcade steps up its dance routine giving us better chances of snow.

We will see some freezing drizzle mixed with snow today, not expecting much in the way of ice accumulation, snowfall should be an inch or less.

Forecast Discussion

-- Light wintry precip today --

We will be monitoring freezing drizzle changing to snow set to
arrive in time to be a nuisance for the morning drive. Highway
travel speeds around Green Bay and Madison Wisconsin have been
reduced and airport wx obs have shown diminished visibility along
with light ice accretion where sensors are installed. Models have
been more bullish with precip production on our side of the lake,
perhaps due to moisture contribution from Lake Michigan but also
slight strengthening of the low. There has already been freezing
drizzle developing between Traverse City and Ludington, and it is
expected to spread toward southwest Michigan prior to daybreak.
Behind the cold front which is currently passing through,
progressively colder air at 850 mb and higher inversion heights
will support an increasing likelihood of cloud glaciation and
therefore a change to lake-effect snow showers by mid morning. The
lake effect convective depth will again be quite shallow, topped
out around 5000 feet at -15 C, so snow showers won`t be
particularly heavy. A light coating of snow is possible area-wide
by this evening.

-- Outlook for the week --

ECMWF and GFS ensembles remain rather tightly clustered with the
temperature guidance through the week. Milder Pacific air will
glance over Lower Michigan late Tuesday into Wednesday, and
temperatures may climb a few degrees above freezing on Wednesday.
Then a little cooler for Thursday and briefly milder Friday.
Overall these temperatures are not far from normal for the time of
year. The coldest air in the forecast is set to arrive for the
weekend, sourced from northern Canada, featuring high temperatures
in the teens or lower 20s. Ensembles are indicating this cold air
probably won`t stick around for more than a few days.

In terms of precipitation, light snow is expected from Wed
afternoon through Thu as a broad Rossby wave trough lumbers
through with a few shortwaves propagating through the flow. A more
substantial wave and low pressure system is likely to affect us
on Friday, providing a chance at a few inches of snow. This
cavalcade of clippers is brought to you by a longwave pattern over
North America that has been pretty steady-state, featuring a
tendency for ridging off the west coast and troughing over Hudson
Bay into the Great Lakes.