We have our first freeze warning in place for tonight as skies are expected to clear and temperatures drop into the low 30s. Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid-50s through Wednesday then warming into the 60s for the second half of the week. Once again rain chance will be low to none.
Weather History
1954: A tornado destroyed an empty schoolhouse at Ashley in Gratiot County. It also took the roof off one house and a porch off of another.
On October 14, 1989, Detroit and Flint shared record highs this date with 83 degrees and 82 degrees respectively.
NWS Forecast
Columbus Day
Partly sunny, with a high near 53. North northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Areas of frost after 2 am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low of around 33. Light northeast wind.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Widespread frost, mainly before 9 am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 50. North wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 2 am. Areas of frost after 4 am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 35. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Areas of frost before 9 am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Wednesday Night
Patchy frost after 1 am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 33.
Thursday
Areas of frost before 9 am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 60.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low of around 37.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 65.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low of around 40.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Forecast Discussion
- Mainly Dry Today into Tuesday, A Few Lake Effect Showers Synoptic scale showers are beginning to wind down across the region as a 500 mb vort max and associated weak surface low migrate east. Some lingering light showers this morning are possible still. After this, inland locations dry out and actually most of the lakeshore too. Low level flow may shift a bit more N/NNW later today so some bands may impact the lakeshore, mainly south of Holland. For Tuesday, some lake effect showers may impact areas primarily northwest of a Muskegon to Big Rapids line. By later in the afternoon, the western halves of the lakeshore counties are at risk for some showers as low level flow over the lake turns NNW. Otherwise, most inland locations stay dry outside of a few brief showers or sprinkles. - Freeze Warning Tonight The majority of the region is at risk for seeing temperatures dip into the upper 20s to low 30s tonight. Partial clearing of cloud cover, light winds, and low level CAA will set the stage for freezing conditions. As such, a Freeze Warning has been issued. With it being mid October, the majority of harvest is coming to a close but those with remaining sensitive vegetation will need to take protective measures. This will be the final frost/freeze related headline for the fall. - Midweek Frosts/Freeze Before a Late Week Warmup The evolution of the weather pattern through late week remains rather straightforward with good ensemble model consistency. Synoptic scale ridging with rising 500 mb heights over Michigan begins Tuesday night and continues into Friday. Progressively warmer 850 mb temperatures will advect in from Wednesday through Friday, going from -4 to +12 C per the ECMWF. This would be a swing roughly from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile based on sounding climatology at DTX. Prior to the lake-effect showers/clouds getting quashed on Wednesday, they may get nudged over lakeshore areas Tuesday night by NNW winds. Areas of clearer skies inland may lead to frost development for Wednesday morning. Then Wednesday night will be an even better setup for radiational cooling of the surface and freezing temperatures for Thursday morning. High pressure enveloping the eastern half of the CONUS during the latter part of the week will result in spectacular leaf peeping weather. Ensembles give high confidence of sunny skies Thu and Fri and a fair amount of sunshine may persist into the weekend. The chances for rain Sat-Sun have diminished into being represented by a smaller minority of ensemble members, as the western US trough late week may leave behind a cutoff low and most of the northern stream shortwave troughing with an attendant cold front may pass farther north of our area.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast
Chilly today but can’t believe the summery weather continuing til Halloween!
We had .36 of an inch of rain yesterday – 1.19 for the month so far and 3.01 for the fall.
This will get the leaves changing – and hopefully slow the growth of the lawn too.
Time to bring my houseplants in….
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 55/46 that high of 55 was the coldest high since April 24th. There was 0.37” of rainfall the sun was out just 3% of the time. For today the average H/L is 62/43 the record high of 82 was last set in 1975 the coldest high of 43 was set in 1980. The record low of 29 was set in 1937 the warmest low of 60 was set in 1968 and 1920. The record rainfall of 1.82” fell in 2017. Last year the H/L was 54/45 and there was 0.55” of rain.
The overnight low so far here in MBY is 39 and that is the current temperature with clear skies.
Slim