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Flood Watch Tonight & Tomorrow

Our temperature yesterday reached a muggy 86° after a morning low of  65°.  We missed most of the rain and storms yesterday, we only picked up .08 of an inch which is also our total for the month thus far.  According to the recent forecast, we will more than make up our deficit and may get a month’s worth of rain tonight and tomorrow from the remnants of Beryl.

Flood Watch


* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, and southwest
  Michigan, including the following counties, in central Michigan,
  Gratiot, Isabella and Montcalm. In south central Michigan,
  Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia and Jackson. In southwest
  Michigan, Allegan, Barry, Kalamazoo, Kent, Ottawa and Van Buren.

* WHEN...From this evening through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

  - The remnants of what was hurricane Beryl will arrive in lower
    Michigan tonight bringing rainfall through Wednesday evening.
    Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches with a band of 4-6+ inches
    somewhere in the watch area is likely.

Tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression Beryl will move into and through Lower Michigan Tonight and Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over much of the area south of a Grand Haven to Mt. Pleasant line. 4 to 6 inch amounts are possible within the heavier swath which may line up from Kalamazoo to Lansing. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the area. If you live in a flood-prone area take the necessary precautions today as heavy rain moves in tonight. Smaller creeks and streams will see flooding first with main stem rivers possibly reaching flood stage in spots over the coming days. Changes in the area of the heavy rain may move a bit, but forecast confidence in flooding has increased since yesterday.

NWS Forecast

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west-southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8 pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall—low around 64. Calm wind becoming northeast at 5 to 9 mph after midnight. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 75. North wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms are likely before 11 pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11 pm and 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. West northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 62.
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

Weather History

1956: Cloudy and cool weather prevails with a record low maximum temperature of 64 degrees at Grand Rapids.

On July 9, 1988, the temperature soared to 100 degrees in Flint, which was the record high for the day. This marked the fifth day in a row (July 5-9) that record daily high temperatures were recorded in Flint.

Forecast Discussion

- Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible Tonight into Wednesday

Dry conditions this morning give way to a chance of scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon mainly south of I96, as we destabilize
due to the influx of tropical moisture. 5000-1000 J/kg of CAPE with
ample moisture support locally heavy rainfall and lightning as the
main concerns if any storms develop.

More widespread rainfall arrives tonight across West Michigan as the
remnants of Beryl move into the Ohio Valley towards Detroit. A
favorable setup for high rainfall rates is expected as near
climatological max PWATs combine with a very deep warm cloud layer.
Guidance has trended northwest with the deformation axis and
heaviest rainfall compared to this time yesterday. Current thinking
supports a wide swath of 2-4 inches of rainfall south of a Mount
Pleasant to Grand Haven line with HREF LPMM guidance suggesting
locally higher amounts of 4-6+ inches of rain in the heaviest band.
Rainfall then tapers off to around 0.5-1 inches near US10. Some
uncertainty exists as to the exact placement of the heaviest band of
rainfall but there is strong support among both global and
convective allowing guidance for its development. Will be issuing a
flood watch near and south of the Mount Pleasant to Grand Haven line
for possible areal and creek/stream flooding. More on impacts will
be contained in the Hydro section.

The strong low-level jet with this system will also support gusts of
25-35 mph across the area. The widespread showers continue into the
evening before tapering off Wednesday Night as the remnants of
Beryl pull away from West Michigan.

- Summer Like Precipitation Pattern Thursday through Monday

Once we get beyond the tropical rainfall in the shorter term portion
of the forecast the remainder looks very mid summer like with
periodic chances for showers and storms. Overall we have low chances
for a few showers and storms through the period as there are not any
major features to latch on to. Aloft, there is some weak troughing
that persists between Thursday and Saturday. There is not a signal
within the ensemble members for good precipitation chances in the
Thursday through Saturday time frame. There may be some isolated to
scattered showers and storms that form from time to time, but our
forecast has dry periods with an occasional 20-30 pct chance mixed
in. Our completely dry periods as of now are both Thursday night and
Friday night with some diurnal activity in the afternoons.

The main chance for precipitation in the longer term looks to be
Sunday into Monday with a shortwave sliding through northwest flow
in a ridge rider scenario. A surface boundary looks to be in the
area with dew points in the GFS anyway that are near and above 80F
off to our west and southwest. So, any thunderstorm activity will
likely be working with extreme instability. In fact the GFS has
5000+ j/kg MUCAPE in place Sunday and Monday afternoons. Too early
to nail anything down that far out, but any storms working with that
much instability will be a focus of ours obviously. 40-50+ knots of
deep layer shear in the area make the concern even greater for
severe weather.

- Heat Builds During the Friday through Monday Time Frame

Heat will build into the Great Lakes region late in the work week
and through the weekend. Saturday night through Monday will feature
850mb temperatures that are largely in the +18C to +20C range. The
values are very mid summer like and will produce high temperatures
in the upper 80s to around 90 and not allow for much of a drop at
night. Sunday night and Monday night we have lows around 70 degrees.
For those look for a deep summer like weekend with warm temperatures
and a fair amount of sunshine the upcoming weekend may fit the bill.


The remnants of what was Hurricane Beryl trek north east into the
Ohio Valley placing Southern Michigan in the favored region for the
heaviest rainfall. Historically, scenarios like this where a
tropical system transitions to extratropical are favorable for heavy
rain and flooding. A wide swath of 2-4 inches is forecast across the
Kalamazoo, St. Joseph, and Grand River basins with locally higher
amounts of 4-6+ inches in the heaviest bands.

Areal flooding wise, these amounts suggest flooding in urban areas,
poor drainage areas, and creeks and streams is likely in the general
region south of a Grand Haven to Mount Pleasant line. The greatest
impacts in this regard will be wherever the heaviest band of higher
totals sets up. An areal flood watch has been issued for this risk
from late this evening through Wednesday evening.

As for river flooding, yesterday`s day shift coordinated with the
NCRFC based on expected QPF and antecedent conditions. Current
forecasts suggests that minor flooding is likely across at least some
of our more flood prone forecast points like Sycamore Creek, the
Portage River, or Kalamazoo river. Major flooding is unlikely at
this time, though depending on where and how much the heaviest
rainfall is can`t rule out a point or two making a run for moderate
flooding. As the area of heaviest rainfall becomes clearer over the
next 24 hours will monitor river and contingency forecasts.
newest oldest
Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Flood warning for the Lansing area. According to NWS, 3-4″ of rain have fallen.

“Stay home tonight, every single neighborhood and road between Saginaw and Grand River is flooded. Hagadorn is atrocious. Saginaw/Haslett Rd area is not driveable. Stay on Grand River if you absolutely have to go out, it’s the only road not 3 feet deep at this point. I watched maybe 30 cars get stuck between the I-69 entrance on Saginaw up to Hagadorn. If you don’t have an SUV or truck, stay home and save yourself the insurance claims.”

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I see the radar estimated. Insane. Crazy part is this is just the beginning. I was in East Lansing this morning doing some deliveries in that area. Glad I got out of there before that. Stay safe Mark!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

My brother just called me (lives off campus MSU) and said his entire parking lot is flooded

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Yeah, I’m home for duration. Our son is at work tonight, though.

Jesse (Montcalm)
Jesse (Montcalm)

Crazy! Nothing here yet.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

4 inches already? Not a small ingle drop here!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

At the Mary Free Bed YMCA and very low clouds to my NE. close to Ada Township

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Wind has really increased. It feels tropical.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Just mowed my lawn on my lunch hour. Looks like the rain will start earlier than expected. Here’s the midday update from NWS GR: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1213 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES… – Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible Tonight into Wednesday – Summer Like Precipitation Pattern Thursday through Monday – Heat Builds During the Friday through Monday Time Frame .UPDATE… Issued at 1210 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Radar and hi-res model trends show a quicker onset of the rain, so POPs have been adjusted accordingly for this afternoon and… Read more »

Andy W
Andy W

Hey Jesse, wondering how your Apple crop is doing? I remember you were worried about it in the spring, just wondering if it’s doing OK??

Jesse (Montcalm)
Jesse (Montcalm)

We put our burn barrels and kept a few trees in good shape. The trees without the burn barrels lost most of their fruit. It looks like my crop is probably about 50-70% less than normal. But I only have about 30 trees and my property tends to get a bit colder because it is sheltered and lower than the surrounding areas. Overall I am not too sad. The burn barrels worked well enough to use in future hard freezes.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Don’t worry, Andy said your apples would not get damaged!

Andy W
Andy W

Don’t worry Rocky was cheering when those freezes happened this past spring and ruined some of the farmers Apple crops, he loved it!

Andy W
Andy W

Sorry for the loss of your crops though Jesse, that’s too bad.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Dont worry, Andy said no damage expected with those low temps! Pathetic!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

The Lansing area seems to be the target area for the most rainfall. I got a replacement tube for my rain gauge today. Silly me forgot mine outside late last year and the water froze and cracked it. So I’ll be ready to measure now. There are roads in Eaton County I know that flood very easy. If the rain that is forecast comes to fruition I can almost guarantee they will be underwater.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I am surprised to see a flood watch? Some of the Northern counties may end up being dropped from the flood threat? I would not mind seeing about an inch of so of rain! Bring it!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

There is a lot of low-lying areas in this part of the state. Anything over one inch of rainfall results in flooding.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Glad I don’t live there! I have had multiple storms this year with more than one inch of rain and no problems at all!


Weather looks interesting coming up the possibility of flooding along the Grand River is a very good possibility and other rivers in lower Michigan in the next couple days and next week we maybe in between hot and cold air dome giving way to possibility of storms and even Derachos coming INDY is tracking it all … Buckle up ..INDY


We got home from our road trip last night. We had a good time. The Tigers won the game on Saturday (they won all three games) The Cincinnati ballpark is a nice one they have a good selection of food on the lower concourse. There were a lot of Tiger fans at the game more than I thought there would be.


We had very good weather during the whole trip there was just one shower on Friday evening. It was warm with temperatures in the upper 80’s to 90 during the day and lows in the upper 60’s to low 70’s and it was somewhat humid. There was not much rainfall here in MBY the last several days and there was just 0.01” of rain in my rain gauge.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Welcome home! Glad you had a good time.