Our temperature yesterday reached a muggy 86° after a morning low of 65°. We missed most of the rain and storms yesterday, we only picked up .08 of an inch which is also our total for the month thus far. According to the recent forecast, we will more than make up our deficit and may get a month’s worth of rain tonight and tomorrow from the remnants of Beryl.
Flood Watch
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, and southwest
Michigan, including the following counties, in central Michigan,
Gratiot, Isabella and Montcalm. In south central Michigan,
Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia and Jackson. In southwest
Michigan, Allegan, Barry, Kalamazoo, Kent, Ottawa and Van Buren.
* WHEN...From this evening through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- The remnants of what was hurricane Beryl will arrive in lower
Michigan tonight bringing rainfall through Wednesday evening.
Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches with a band of 4-6+ inches
somewhere in the watch area is likely.
Tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression Beryl will move into and through Lower Michigan Tonight and Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over much of the area south of a Grand Haven to Mt. Pleasant line. 4 to 6 inch amounts are possible within the heavier swath which may line up from Kalamazoo to Lansing. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the area. If you live in a flood-prone area take the necessary precautions today as heavy rain moves in tonight. Smaller creeks and streams will see flooding first with main stem rivers possibly reaching flood stage in spots over the coming days. Changes in the area of the heavy rain may move a bit, but forecast confidence in flooding has increased since yesterday.
NWS Forecast
Today
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west-southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8 pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall—low around 64. Calm wind becoming northeast at 5 to 9 mph after midnight. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Wednesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 75. North wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms are likely before 11 pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11 pm and 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. West northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 62.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
Weather History
1956: Cloudy and cool weather prevails with a record low maximum temperature of 64 degrees at Grand Rapids.
On July 9, 1988, the temperature soared to 100 degrees in Flint, which was the record high for the day. This marked the fifth day in a row (July 5-9) that record daily high temperatures were recorded in Flint.
Forecast Discussion
- Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible Tonight into Wednesday Dry conditions this morning give way to a chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon mainly south of I96, as we destabilize due to the influx of tropical moisture. 5000-1000 J/kg of CAPE with ample moisture support locally heavy rainfall and lightning as the main concerns if any storms develop. More widespread rainfall arrives tonight across West Michigan as the remnants of Beryl move into the Ohio Valley towards Detroit. A favorable setup for high rainfall rates is expected as near climatological max PWATs combine with a very deep warm cloud layer. Guidance has trended northwest with the deformation axis and heaviest rainfall compared to this time yesterday. Current thinking supports a wide swath of 2-4 inches of rainfall south of a Mount Pleasant to Grand Haven line with HREF LPMM guidance suggesting locally higher amounts of 4-6+ inches of rain in the heaviest band. Rainfall then tapers off to around 0.5-1 inches near US10. Some uncertainty exists as to the exact placement of the heaviest band of rainfall but there is strong support among both global and convective allowing guidance for its development. Will be issuing a flood watch near and south of the Mount Pleasant to Grand Haven line for possible areal and creek/stream flooding. More on impacts will be contained in the Hydro section. The strong low-level jet with this system will also support gusts of 25-35 mph across the area. The widespread showers continue into the evening before tapering off Wednesday Night as the remnants of Beryl pull away from West Michigan. - Summer Like Precipitation Pattern Thursday through Monday Once we get beyond the tropical rainfall in the shorter term portion of the forecast the remainder looks very mid summer like with periodic chances for showers and storms. Overall we have low chances for a few showers and storms through the period as there are not any major features to latch on to. Aloft, there is some weak troughing that persists between Thursday and Saturday. There is not a signal within the ensemble members for good precipitation chances in the Thursday through Saturday time frame. There may be some isolated to scattered showers and storms that form from time to time, but our forecast has dry periods with an occasional 20-30 pct chance mixed in. Our completely dry periods as of now are both Thursday night and Friday night with some diurnal activity in the afternoons. The main chance for precipitation in the longer term looks to be Sunday into Monday with a shortwave sliding through northwest flow in a ridge rider scenario. A surface boundary looks to be in the area with dew points in the GFS anyway that are near and above 80F off to our west and southwest. So, any thunderstorm activity will likely be working with extreme instability. In fact the GFS has 5000+ j/kg MUCAPE in place Sunday and Monday afternoons. Too early to nail anything down that far out, but any storms working with that much instability will be a focus of ours obviously. 40-50+ knots of deep layer shear in the area make the concern even greater for severe weather. - Heat Builds During the Friday through Monday Time Frame Heat will build into the Great Lakes region late in the work week and through the weekend. Saturday night through Monday will feature 850mb temperatures that are largely in the +18C to +20C range. The values are very mid summer like and will produce high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 and not allow for much of a drop at night. Sunday night and Monday night we have lows around 70 degrees. For those look for a deep summer like weekend with warm temperatures and a fair amount of sunshine the upcoming weekend may fit the bill.
Hydrology
The remnants of what was Hurricane Beryl trek north east into the Ohio Valley placing Southern Michigan in the favored region for the heaviest rainfall. Historically, scenarios like this where a tropical system transitions to extratropical are favorable for heavy rain and flooding. A wide swath of 2-4 inches is forecast across the Kalamazoo, St. Joseph, and Grand River basins with locally higher amounts of 4-6+ inches in the heaviest bands. Areal flooding wise, these amounts suggest flooding in urban areas, poor drainage areas, and creeks and streams is likely in the general region south of a Grand Haven to Mount Pleasant line. The greatest impacts in this regard will be wherever the heaviest band of higher totals sets up. An areal flood watch has been issued for this risk from late this evening through Wednesday evening. As for river flooding, yesterday`s day shift coordinated with the NCRFC based on expected QPF and antecedent conditions. Current forecasts suggests that minor flooding is likely across at least some of our more flood prone forecast points like Sycamore Creek, the Portage River, or Kalamazoo river. Major flooding is unlikely at this time, though depending on where and how much the heaviest rainfall is can`t rule out a point or two making a run for moderate flooding. As the area of heaviest rainfall becomes clearer over the next 24 hours will monitor river and contingency forecasts.
Flood warning for the Lansing area. According to NWS, 3-4″ of rain have fallen.
“Stay home tonight, every single neighborhood and road between Saginaw and Grand River is flooded. Hagadorn is atrocious. Saginaw/Haslett Rd area is not driveable. Stay on Grand River if you absolutely have to go out, it’s the only road not 3 feet deep at this point. I watched maybe 30 cars get stuck between the I-69 entrance on Saginaw up to Hagadorn. If you don’t have an SUV or truck, stay home and save yourself the insurance claims.”
I see the radar estimated. Insane. Crazy part is this is just the beginning. I was in East Lansing this morning doing some deliveries in that area. Glad I got out of there before that. Stay safe Mark!
My brother just called me (lives off campus MSU) and said his entire parking lot is flooded
Yeah, I’m home for duration. Our son is at work tonight, though.
Crazy! Nothing here yet.
4 inches already? Not a small ingle drop here!
At the Mary Free Bed YMCA and very low clouds to my NE. close to Ada Township
Wind has really increased. It feels tropical.
Record rainfall amounts for July 10th in inches
Grand Rapids, 1.48 in 1942
Lansing, 1.41 in 2020
Muskegon, 2.00 in 1941
Kalamazoo, 1.07 in 2017
Battle Creek, 2.04 in 1967
Holland, 1.70 inches in 1910
Just mowed my lawn on my lunch hour. Looks like the rain will start earlier than expected. Here’s the midday update from NWS GR: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1213 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES… – Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible Tonight into Wednesday – Summer Like Precipitation Pattern Thursday through Monday – Heat Builds During the Friday through Monday Time Frame .UPDATE… Issued at 1210 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Radar and hi-res model trends show a quicker onset of the rain, so POPs have been adjusted accordingly for this afternoon and… Read more »
Hey Jesse, wondering how your Apple crop is doing? I remember you were worried about it in the spring, just wondering if it’s doing OK??
We put our burn barrels and kept a few trees in good shape. The trees without the burn barrels lost most of their fruit. It looks like my crop is probably about 50-70% less than normal. But I only have about 30 trees and my property tends to get a bit colder because it is sheltered and lower than the surrounding areas. Overall I am not too sad. The burn barrels worked well enough to use in future hard freezes.
Don’t worry, Andy said your apples would not get damaged!
Don’t worry Rocky was cheering when those freezes happened this past spring and ruined some of the farmers Apple crops, he loved it!
Sorry for the loss of your crops though Jesse, that’s too bad.
Dont worry, Andy said no damage expected with those low temps! Pathetic!
The Lansing area seems to be the target area for the most rainfall. I got a replacement tube for my rain gauge today. Silly me forgot mine outside late last year and the water froze and cracked it. So I’ll be ready to measure now. There are roads in Eaton County I know that flood very easy. If the rain that is forecast comes to fruition I can almost guarantee they will be underwater.
I am surprised to see a flood watch? Some of the Northern counties may end up being dropped from the flood threat? I would not mind seeing about an inch of so of rain! Bring it!
There is a lot of low-lying areas in this part of the state. Anything over one inch of rainfall results in flooding.
Glad I don’t live there! I have had multiple storms this year with more than one inch of rain and no problems at all!
Weather looks interesting coming up the possibility of flooding along the Grand River is a very good possibility and other rivers in lower Michigan in the next couple days and next week we maybe in between hot and cold air dome giving way to possibility of storms and even Derachos coming INDY is tracking it all … Buckle up ..INDY
We got home from our road trip last night. We had a good time. The Tigers won the game on Saturday (they won all three games) The Cincinnati ballpark is a nice one they have a good selection of food on the lower concourse. There were a lot of Tiger fans at the game more than I thought there would be.
Slim
We had very good weather during the whole trip there was just one shower on Friday evening. It was warm with temperatures in the upper 80’s to 90 during the day and lows in the upper 60’s to low 70’s and it was somewhat humid. There was not much rainfall here in MBY the last several days and there was just 0.01” of rain in my rain gauge.
Slim
Welcome home! Glad you had a good time.