Michigan Wx Michigan Wx

Flood Watch & Storms

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

Our weather pattern will become active today and tomorrow with rounds of rain and thunderstorms.  Tomorrow we have an enhanced risk of storms.   Temperatures will be around 70° tomorrow!

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms posing a risk for strong tornadoes and large
   hail are expected in a corridor across eastern Illinois through
   Lower Michigan Wednesday, with organizing clusters or lines of
   storms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a
   couple of tornadoes, across the Ohio Valley vicinity.

SPC Outlook Day One

SPC Outlook Day Two

Several rounds of showers and t-storms will affect portions of Lower MI into Wed. While the overall risk of severe weather at any single location is low, some storms in the area may be severe on Tue–Wed. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible during this timeframe. Additional localized flooding may also occur.

Grand Rapids Forecast

[pdf-embedder url=”https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/4-4-grr.pdf” title=”4 4 grr”]

Lansing Forecast

[pdf-embedder url=”https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/44-lan.pdf” title=”44 lan”]

Kalamazoo Forecast

[pdf-embedder url=”https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/4-4-kzo.pdf” title=”4 4 kzo”]

Forecast Discussion

- Rain gradually diminishing early this morning -

Mostly light to moderate rain continues in progress across much of
our area early this morning with a few pockets of locally heavier
rain north of the I-96 corridor. No convection is occurring due to
a lack of elevated instability this far north of the quasi
stationary frontal boundary which extends from central IL east to
central IN/OH.

A consensus of latest CAMs and higher res short term guidance
suggests this rain will gradually diminish during the early to mid
morning hours today with a brief period of dry wx expected for
most of our area from late morning thru mid aftn.

- Rain and thunderstorms tonight -

A northward moving warm front will combine with a vigorous llj to
bring rain and convection tonight. Hail is possible with elevated
convection with steep mid level lapse rates of up to 8C/km in
place. Once the warm front moves north it is questionable whether
additional convection will develop during the early morning hours
Wednesday.

The 00Z HREF suggests the vast majority of convection will occur
near to north of the warm front and this seems reasonable.
However any isolated to sct storms that do develop in the warm
sector will need to be monitored for strong winds given the
magnitude of the llj and an increasingly favorable kinematic
environment overnight.

- Severe wx Wednesday -

The best chance for svr wx comes from late morning Wednesday
through Wednesday afternoon along and ahead of the approaching
cold front. Model trends have slowed down the eastward progression
of the cold front somewhat the past 24-48 hrs. This is
significant in that the atmosphere will potentially have more time
to destabilize prior to fropa after the overnight rounds of
rain/convection thus potentially setting up a favorable
thermodynamic environment.

Wind and hail threats as well as potential for tornadoes are all
on the table given a very favorable kinematic and thermodynamic
environment with strong deep layer shear conducive to supercell
formation. There is potential for 1000-1500 j/kg of sb/mu cape to
develop ahead of the front. This in conjunction with favorable
lift moisture and deep layer shear all support a significant svr
wx risk across our area.

Having said all this it is also still possible that extensive
morning cloud cover and lingering showers could keep the
atmosphere fairly worked over and thus mitigate the svr wx
threat. Convection rooted in the sfc layer notoriously weakens
considerably if not entirely trying to cross cold Lake MI waters
this time of year as well.

It is far too early to get into too many mesoscale details which
will only become better known as convective evolution occurs
tonight. All things considered there is potential for significant
severe wx including tornadoes Wednesday and consequently SPC has
upgraded all of our area into an enhanced risk.

A significantly cooler airmass will move in behind that front late
this week before temps undergo a gradual moderating trend again
for the weekend.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

37 thoughts on “Flood Watch & Storms”

  3. With a east wind I am getting a cold rain with temperatures in the mid 40’s
    Slim

    1. Yes it is a very cold, windy , wet April day! The cool pattern continues!

  4. Well with the mild fall, mild winter and it totally makes sense for a mild blowtorch Spring!

    1. It looks like we should have some nice warm spring weather. Not sure I would call it a blowtorch. But with the recent rains I would get the lawn mower ready.
      Slim

  7. It’ll be interesting to see how plants respond to the warmth next week. If we get 70s for 5+ days, I’d imagine buds will start popping up

    1. If we get 5 days in the 70’s the grass with green up. Spring flowers will bloom and some leaves with come out on the trees. That has happened in the past in April.
      Slim

    2. My crocuses are up and blooming and my tulips are up with buds on them. I think they will bloom for Easter.

  9. Mookie, take a look at the CPC outlooks…….BLOWTORCH BULLSEYE OVER MICHIGAN!!!!!

  10. Lake Michigan is definitely eating this first round of storms up like I thought hopefully tomorrow is different we will see or stay there…INDY

    1. Surface based storms will not make it across the lake. Elevated storms don’t care if the lake is there or not.
      Slim

    1. What happened to your “highs in the 30’s this week?” or your snow models showing GR getting 2 more feet of snow? LOL You seem to twist everything like a politician.

  12. I am not sure why are some who are still talking on how this past winter season played out but here are some facts for the 2022/23 winter season. 1. It was mild with the November though March mean of 33.8 the average mean for the 5 months is 31.3. 1. With 110.1” of snow there was a lot of snow (at Grand Rapids) average is 76.0” 3. There were 54 days with 1” or more of snow on the ground the average at GR is 67 but there have also been several winters in the last 30 that have had less. 4. According to the AWSSI index the winter season was 137 days long.
    Slim

    2. Thanks for the facts, Slim. The only statistic that wasn’t mild and weak was total snowfall. But as seen on the numbers of days with snow on the ground, that still came in below average due to the warmth and melting. I loved it!

      1. Yep, definitely one of the longer, snowiest winters we have seen in many years! Great skiing all season! Incredible!

  13. Reed Timmer may be coming to Michigan to storm chase tomorrow. That’s never a good sign haha

  14. I still think a cool lake Michigan and the timing will have effect on our severe weather here in GR the chances will be better towrds Lansing east thats my thought as of 930am .. We will see but Im definitely getting the grill outside tomorrow finally some warm weather its been along winter so ready ….INDY

    1. I believe that Lake Michigan will break up any storms but then we have to compare the conditions to what they were in April 1956 and 1965.
      Slim

  15. I think tomorrow is one of the more interesting severe weather days for west Michigan that we have seen recently. The whole area is in the day 2 tornado hatched area (10% chance of a strong tornado within 25 miles). The SPC still mentions there are questions of what effect Lake Michigan will have and if the morning clouds will clear out quick enough… so we will see, but it’ll be exciting to track regardless

    1. The tornado probabilities are the highest I’ve seen since November 17, 2013 event. We shall see how it plays out.

  17. WOOD keeps bumping up those temps! Now talking about dew points in the mid 60’s which should feel like early summer. Next week could be even warmer. I love it!

  18. What a winter: record breaking snowfall events, 110 plus inches of snow, winter was long as it started by mid Nov and lasted till April! Wow just wow, WOW! Is winter finally dead? Incredible! I may be switching from skiing to golf soon! Who would have thought?

    1. LOL Did you forget about the weeks on end with no snow or all the snow storms where the snow melted in 12 hours? How about zero ice, no subzero temps, or one of the warmest winters on record? It was such a mild and weak winter but I’m glad you enjoyed it too!

  19. From the SPC day 2 discussion:
    It remains unclear what effect the cooler marine layer from Lake Michigan has on adjacent coastal areas, particularly into portions of western Michigan. However, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, in particular, indicate a rather potent thermodynamic and kinematic environment supportive of strong tornadoes. This includes sizable CAPE, strong deep-layer shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. It is possible that severe weather probabilities could still be increased further in later outlooks for this period.

  20. Most of lower Michigan is now in the enhanced risk area for Wednesday. We shall see how this plays out. It also looks like Wednesday will be the warmest day of 2023 so far. Thursday looks to be windy and much cooler. I now have my rain gauge out for the season and I have 0.54” of rain fall for yesterday and overnight.
    Slim

  21. The official H/L at GRR yesterday was 58/44 there was 0.37” of rain fall before midnight, there was 12% of possible sunshine. That 58 is the warmest it has gotten so far this year. Overnight low here in MBY and the current temperature is 43 with light rain falling. For today the average H/L is 53/33 the record high of 77 was set in 1921 and the record low of 13 was set in 1971. The record snow fall for today is 2.5” in 1920. Last year the H/L was 47/33 with 0.42” of rain fall and 0.1” of snow fall.
    Slim

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