Yesterday we had a warm 64° and an overnight low of 44°.
Colder air arrives later today and tonight while a low-pressure system develops overhead. Rain showers will become mixed with or change to snow tonight and continue Thursday with some wet, slushy accumulations likely.
Here it comes! We’ll see the first snowflakes of the season tonight and Thursday and some areas will get accumulations of wet/slushy snow.
Weather History
1869: More than a foot of snow fell at Lansing, setting a record for the most ever recorded during November.
2000: An intense lake effect snow squall dropped almost a foot of snow on Grand Rapids, setting a record for the most snow on a November day.
On November 20, 1957, an F3 tornado hit Wayne County at 6:50 pm resulting in 12 injuries and 1 death and costing $250,000 in damages.
NWS Forecast
Today
Showers, mainly before 2 pm. The temperature rises to near 47 by 10 am, then falls to around 43 during the remainder of the day. Light west wind increasing to 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%—new precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight
Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 3 am. Low around 32. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%—new snow accumulation of less than a half inch is possible.
Thursday
Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after 4 pm. High near 38. West wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.
Thursday Night
Rain showers are likely before 10 pm, then snow showers are likely between 10 pm and 1 am, then a chance of rain showers after 1 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 28. North northeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming northwest after midnight. The chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
Friday
Showers are likely, mainly after 1 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
Showers likely before 1 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 38. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 34.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 39.
Monday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.
Monday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 35.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Forecast Discussion
- A Taste of Winter Thursday Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low extending from southern Canada south to Missouri. This upper low will move east today as a surface low develops over northwest OH. As the surface low gets caught up in the circulation around the upper low, it will begin to move north over the Thumb, then west across the Straits, then south along the Lake MI shore; a very interesting track. The GFS has had this track as its solution for a few days and the ECMWF, NAM and HRRR have all jumped on board. The cold front behind the surface low will move across the cwa this morning and h8 temps will fall below 0c by 18z. The coldest air with this system will be across the southwest cwa. As the upper low moves closer, more cold air will get wrapped into the surface low and we`ll see a changeover from rain to snow beginning this evening and most of the precipitation will be snow by Thursday, except perhaps adjacent to the lake shore where the warmer waters of the lake will be a larger influence. The way this looks like it will play out is that lake effect rain showers will develop across the southwest cwa this evening and then become mixed with snow showers late evening and overnight. Meanwhile, precipitation from the surface low will start to move south from northern Lower after midnight and continue into Thursday. By the time the synoptic precipitation reaches the central cwa, it should be augmented some lake effect too. We do expect accumulations from this system. Local probability matched mean snowfall suggests 1-4 inches possible by 00z Friday across the western and northern cwa and perhaps a bit more in the far southwest cwa due to the lake effect component. Lowest snowfall totals will occur across the eastern cwa. Since the bulk of the snow will fall Thursday during the day, there`s always the possibility that accumulations will be held down somewhat by the warmer ground. However, as we`ve seen during the Halloween storm in Muskegon last year, if snowfall rates overperform, the warmer ground becomes less of a factor as the snowfall can still pile up. We`re aren`t ready to go there yet, just something to keep in mind. Highs will remain in the 30s Thursday. Given that this will be the first appreciable snowfall of the season, leave extra time to get where you are going. - Less Active Pattern After Thursday Upper low departs to the south on Thursday night but cool cyclonic flow lingers into Friday and Friday night as a new low wobbles over NY/PA. Predominate low level flow expected to be out of the north or north-northwest, which keeps most of lake effect (rain or mixed rain and snow) near the coast. Much of the area may temporarily clear out on Thursday evening in the wake of the departing low with a period of NNE winds, allowing temps at several areas to possibly dip into the 20s before lake clouds move back in later on. This could lead to some slick spots developing if/where moisture from Thursday`s system lingers on roadways and sidewalks. The weather for the weekend into early next week looks fairly benign. Zonal flow aloft sends a weak system through for later Sunday into Monday although at this time the bulk of the QPF looks to stay to our north. Temps Sunday-Monday would support all rain for p-type with highs well into the 40s, then some light lake effect rain or mixed rain and snow showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday behind that system as temps cool off a bit. The cold advection is not very impressive though as highs will still be up around 40 Tuesday and Wednesday.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it SNOW!!!! WOW!
Here is some information on the number of tornado deaths reported by year.
https://inside.nssl.noaa.gov/nsslnews/2009/03/us-annual-tornado-death-tolls-1875-present/
Number of Hurricanes hitting the US by decade
https://www.statista.com/statistics/621238/number-of-hurricanes-that-made-landfall-in-the-us/
And yes the average temperatures have been getting warmer.
Slim
Tornado deaths are down. Number of hurricane landfalls hasn’t changed.
Of course the temps are getting warmer! Only ignorant people would not believe the indisputable facts of global warming! Global warming is the biggest threat our county and the World faces!
Let’s not get political please.
The person that started the political BS speaks more BS! Incredible!
I love the warmer temps! Keep them coming!
Snow!
While it’s to far out to know if it will be right, did you see the extended forecast beyond 7 days? High temps below freezing are there and lows in the 20s. Bring it!
December looks pretty warm with highs mainly in the 40’s.
Yes winter is knocking on the doorstep, yet some people only talk about warm weather! Some things never change!
Yes it will snow this winter. How much?? way too early to tell. Will it get cold? yes it will but how cold once again way too early to tell. A good guess is to start with the average so we could be looking at around 70 to 75 inches of snow for the season but that can vary by a lot. As for temperatures so far this year only July has been below average so above average has been the trend and that may continue.
Slim
It looks like the new administration will be eliminating a lot of the “climate change / global warming” legislation. It was cited that weather-related deaths is at an all-time low this decade and that there is no evidence of a higher number of tornadoes or hurricanes or droughts or floods. Anyone have any empirical data on this?
I do know that temps have been getting warmer lately, but that seems to be welcome news – at least here in Michigan.
What a load of BS! Please don’t talk politics on the blog!!
My post was not political. It was about the ever-evolving data regarding climate change.
Ignorant!
So glad to hear that!! Great to have a competent administration that will cut down on the wasteful spending of our tax dollars and will end the nonsense wars overseas!
Wow, yesterday was a +16 degree day above average. We’ve only seen a few below average days all month.
The official H/L yesterday at GR was 62/47, there was 0.04” of rainfall the highest wind gust of 35MPH was out of the SW. There was just 4% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 71 was set in 1930 the coldest high of 29 was in 1969. The record low of 13 was in 1939 the warmest low of 56 was in 1934. The wettest was in 1981 with 1.27” the most snowfall of 11.5” was in 2000 the most on the ground was 10” in 1922.
Slim