Fire Danger Today

Yesterday we had a high of 72 with a low of 35.

We haven’t had any significant rain in 16 days, just a trace here in Otsego. Our last was on September 24th, with 1.26 inches. We have had 1.82 inches for the fall so far, which has created a fire danger for most of the state.

Fire Weather Watch

Red Flag Warning

Weather History

1912: A late evening tornado hit Gratiot County. Five farms sustained damage along a five-mile-long path. An elderly woman was killed and her son injured as their home was blown apart southwest of Alma.

On October 11, 1949, record high precipitation occurred, with 3.27 inches of rainfall recorded in Detroit.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Chances for showers later today and later Saturday

We will start the day out with more mostly clear skies with just
some thin cirrus floating by this morning. Clouds will thicken up
later today as a short wave aloft and sfc front starts to knock on
our doorstep. Rain chances for late this afternoon and this evening
are not very good looking at moisture profile. Also, the main energy
with the upper wave will remain north of the area. We will continue
to carry chc pops for this front, along with an isolated lightning
strike possible with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE available aloft.

The cold front will eventually stall out just south of the MI/IN/OH
border by Saturday morning at sunrise. We will then see another
short wave aloft and area of upper jet forcing translate across the
area. This forcing combining with the front will help to induce
additional shower activity later in the day and beyond. The better
chances of rain showers later Saturday will be found across the
south, closer to the stalled out frontal system.

We will see a break then from later tonight

- Increasing Potential for Rain Saturday night

A surface wave will be lifting up the OH Valley Saturday night.  A
tight baroclinic zone will be over the CWA during the time.  The DGZ
moistens up and decent FGEN is noted over southern parts of the CWA.
Stronger 250 mb divergence is noted as well.  Thus rain is looking
likely for this region and it could persist into the early morning
hours on Sunday.  Ensemble 24 hr qpf values from the various models
are also trending up for Kalamazoo, so we will increase the POPs for
this window.

- Occasional Showers Sunday into Sunday night

A potent mid to upper level wave digs into the Great Lakes Region
Sunday. Strong H5 height falls occur here in MI as a result.  As the
column cools and the Great Lakes add moisture to this cold system,
deep moisture results.  The moisture is shown to extend up through
the DGZ and stronger lift is seen in the models, especially over the
northern zones Sunday afternoon.  On the backside of this departing
system, the north to northwest flow will favor lakeshore regions for
abundant showers Sunday night.  Forecast sounding up around
Ludington at 00z Mon are showing inversion heights up around 20k ft.
We will feature high POPs for this period, especially to the north
and west of Grand Rapids.