We have had an eight-day dry spell which will finally end today. Rain will overspread the area today with the best chance coming this afternoon and tonight through Friday. Rain chances continue through Saturday to start the weekend clearing out by Saturday night. Rainfall totals of half an inch or better are expected.
Yesterday’s high was 87° with a morning low of 56°.
SPC Outlook
Day One
Day Two
WPC Rain Outlook
Day One
Weather History
1951: Tornadoes hit near Grand Ledge in Eaton County, Fowlerville in Livingston County, and Kings Mill in Lapeer County. Several barns were destroyed.
1978: A waterspout moved inland off Lake Michigan just south of Little Sable Point, about 8 miles west of Shelby in Oceana County. Several cottages were damaged and Scenic Drive was blocked by falling trees. One person was injured when a picture window was blown in.
On August 15, 1951, an F1 tornado developed from a severe thunderstorm at 3 pm and hit Lapeer County.
NWS Forecast
Today
Showers are likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. South southeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%—new rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 65. Southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8 am and 2 pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. High near 81. Southwest wind 7 to 11 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 64. West-southwest wind around 7 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11 am. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. West northwest wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Forecast Discussion
- Showers/storms through Friday Clouds will increase this morning as low pressure over the northern Plains pushes an occluded frontal boundary toward the region. Initially, the lower atmosphere will be fairly dry. However, a seasonably strong LLJ will move over the cwa this afternoon and we`ll see showers and isolated thunderstorms develop. Generally, shear values remain aob 25 kts across much of the cwa. However, models point toward the southwest cwa this afternoon where shear values rise above 30kts. Any stronger storms would likely be found southwest of a Grand Rapids to Battle Creek line after 18z today. The occluded front is progd to move across the cwa tonight in conjunction with the leading edge of the upper trough and that will likely produce more storms. Shear values climb to around 40 kts just ahead of the front, so we could see a strong to severe storm late tonight. The surface low and upper trough move over the cwa Friday, keeping showers and storms in the forecast. While dynamics aren`t overly strong, shear values are marginal enough for perhaps some cell organization in a couple of the stronger storms; much of the cwa is in a marginal risk for severe storms. HREF ensemble probability matched mean qpf points toward the northern cwa as the area that could see over an inch of rain through Friday with the southern half in range for a quarter to half inch. - Rain chances persist into the Weekend Upper troughing evolves into a cut off low over the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. This will continue the chance of showers through Sunday as sfc low pressure slowly moves through.The rain should be ending by Sunday night as the low moves east. Fair weather with below normal temperatures is expected next week as northwest flow regime brings in an air mass of Canadian origin while the heat and humidity remains bottled up across the SW CONUS. There is a slight chance of showers by the end of next week as another upper trough approaches from the northwest, but moisture is limited.
So thankful for this rain!!!!
The official H/L yesterday was 84/59 there was no rainfall the highest wind speed was just 14 MPH out of the SE. The sun was out 70% of the time. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 97 was set in 1944 the record coldest high of 64 was set in 1905 the record low of 42 was set in 1964. The most rainfall of 1.35” fell in 1986.
Slim