First and Lasts
As we are now past the halfway mark of September 2024 I thought it would be a good time to take a look at some upcoming fall/winter first and last events. The average last 90° day at Grand Rapids is August 23rd. There have been two summers without a 90° day. The earliest last one was on June 10, 2000, the latest was on September 29, 1953. 1951 and 2014 did NOT have a days that officially reach 90 at Grand Rapids. Last year the last day was September 5th this year GR had 6 days of 90 or better with the last one on August 27th The average last 85° day is September 14th the earliest was on August 12, 1989 and the latest was on October 21, 1953. Last year the last one was on October 3rd The average last 80° day at Grand Rapids is September 30th the earliest was on August 28, 1918 the latest was on November 1, 1950 Last year it was on October 4th The average last 75° day at GR is October 14th the earliest was September 15, 1981 the Latest was on November 10th 2022. Last year it was on October 24th The average last 70 day is October 24th the earliest was October 1st 1925 and the latest was November 23, 1931 last year to was on October 24th
The 1st 32° low that will signal the end of the growing season. Before I get to that I will remind everyone that the last 32° low last spring was on April 25th so we have had a very long frost free season this year. At Grand Rapids the average first low of 32 is on October 13th The earliest was September 3rd, 1946. The Latest was November 14, 1918. Last year it was on October 18th For a killing frost of 28 the average is October 29th The earliest was on September 23, 1974 and the latest was on November 29, 1948 Last year it was on October 31st
For a hard freeze of 25 the average is November 8th the earliest was on October 3, 1974. The latest was on December 23, 2001 (talk about late) Last year it was on November 1st
And for snow fall. The average that the first 1” snow fall occurs on is November 20th the earliest 1” snow fall was on October 12, 2006 the latest was on December 24th 2020. Last year it was on December 18th
For a 3” snow fall the average first one is on December 5th the earliest one was on October 19, 1989 the latest was on March 16, 1949 Last year it was on January 9th 2024. As for a 6” snowfall not all years have a 6” snowfall but the average 1st date is January 6th the earliest is October 27th 1967 and the latest in years that had one is April 2nd 1975. In recent years 2018-2019, 2012-2013, and 2005-2006 did not have one. Snowfalls of 8” or more also do not happen every year but when they do the average 1st one is on January 15th the earliest was on October 27th 1967 the latest was on April 16th 1961. Only 4 of the last 10 years had a 8” or more snowfall. But there were 5 years in a row between 2006 and 2010.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/62 there was 0.09” of rainfall at the airport (here in MBY I only had 0.01” of rainfall) the highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 95 was set in 2017 the coldest high of 47 was set in 1913 the record low of 32 was set in 1962 the warmest low of 76 was set in 1931. The most rainfall of 3.16” fell in 1947. Grand Rapids now has had 11 day in a row of 80 or better, that is a record for days in a row of 80+. In September of 2017 Grand Rapids had a heat wave with 6 days in a row of 90+ starting on September 20th reaching highs of 95,95,96,94,91 and 92 the heatwave started on September 19 with a high of 87. At the current time it is very foggy and 63 here in MBY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
332 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN SUNNY AND HOT TODAY
– SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
– STARTING MONDAY, A WEEK OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024
- DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN SUNNY AND HOT TODAY
SURFACE OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM EARLY
THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM; FOG
WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING, LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY. H8
TEMPS CLIMB TO 18C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...ROUGHLY A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY MIXING DOWN
SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT, WHICH WILL SEND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S.
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND SUNDAY
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE WITH IT...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES JUMP TO AROUND 2 INCHES SUNDAY THANKS TO A 40 KT LLJ.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING THOUGH; MUCAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
AT BEST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 5C/KM, WHICH IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE. THUS, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED STORMS. QPF COULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO OVER
AN INCH, WHICH WOULD BE WELCOME TO AN AREA THAT HASN'T SEEN MUCH
RAIN LATELY.
- STARTING MONDAY, A WEEK OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE NEXT WEEK, WHILE THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES IN THE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES (DEPENDING
ON A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PATTERN), THE MEDIAN
OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK, THEN WARMING UP A LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS IS A
BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY LONG STRETCH OF 80-DEGREE WEATHER THAT
OCCURRED IN MID-SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ON THEIR WAY TO ABOUT 70/50 THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DAILY RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN A CHALLENGE TO PREDICT FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND THEIR CONSTITUENT MEMBERS HAVE PROVIDED A
WIDE RANGE OF PLAUSIBLE RAIN OUTCOMES: RANGING BETWEEN A MOSTLY DRY
WEEK, TO A SOMEWHAT SHOWERY WEEK, TO A ONE-OR-TWO EPISODE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. ADDING TO THAT ARE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES AMONG EACH OF
THE ENSEMBLES. THIS CAN BE FORGIVEN SINCE THE INTERACTION AND
EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE PATTERNS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN-STREAM POLAR JET
AND THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET IS SET TO BE RATHER CHAOTIC.
AFTER SUNDAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AS
THE SOUTHERN-STREAM LOW OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES
INCORPORATED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER, THE CMC ENSEMBLE IS MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
TUESDAY, AND THERE ARE STILL A PORTION OF MEMBERS AMONG THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE THAT STAY DRY TOO. OUTLIER SOLUTIONS ON THE RAINY
SIDE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS ON
TUE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS RELATIVELY HIGHER IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
LATER IN THE WEEK, MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO DEVELOP CUT-OFF LOWS
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHERE A CUT-OFF LOW MIGHT FORM WILL DICTATE WHETHER LATE
WEEK IS DRY OR HAS A RAIN EPISODE. IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ENSEMBLES, THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS THAT OFFERS A CHANCE OF A
SOAKING RAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS CLUSTER IS IN THE MINORITY.
Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids
Today
Widespread dense fog, mainly before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Calm wind.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog between 7pm and 8pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 55. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
We are well past needing rain. Very dry and crunchy out there.
Agreed, but at least we have chance Sunday afternoon/evening! Bring it on!
We had .13 of an inch of rain yesterday, .24 for the month. Yesterday’s high was 84 and the low was 60. I’m looking forward to a week in the 70s.
GET rid of these temps in the 80’s, horrendous weather!