Yesterday, we reached 80° (again) after a morning low of 65°. Today, temperatures will begin to fall, returning us to the reality of fall once again. Today will be windy, with good chances of rain and a few thunderstorms. Hopefully, a dry slot will be around for a dry, though windy, time for the trick-or-treaters.
Here’s something we don’t often see, a low-water advisory I think Slim has mentioned it in one of his posts:
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the south with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels expected. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. During the Low Water Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southwest winds will result in water levels dropping quickly in Saginaw Bay Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Water level as of 930 PM Wednesday is 12 inches above low water datum. Water levels are forecast to fall to approximately 30 inches below low water datum Thursday evening.
Wind Advisory
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest, and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Weather History
1917: One of the coldest Octobers on record ends on a wintry note with about an inch of snow and high temperatures only in the lower 30s.
1950: Halloween treats Lower Michigan to balmy temperatures. Grand Rapids hits 79 degrees and Lansing 77, both record highs for the date.
On October 31, 2023, Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw all had their snowiest Halloween on record. They recorded 0.2″, 1.1″, and 0.5″ of snow respectively.
On October 31, 2013, Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw all had their wettest Halloween on record. They recorded 1.59″, 1.19″, and 1.14″ of rain respectively.
Also on October 31, 1993, was a very cold Halloween with high temperatures only reaching 43 in Detroit, 37 in Flint, and 39 in Saginaw. The 37 in Flint is the record-low maximum temperature for the date. During the early morning hours, snow fell and accumulated across portions of Southeast Michigan. Detroit had 0.4 inches of snow, while Flint had 0.8 inches.
Also on October 31, 1950, children experienced a warm Halloween with a record high of 79 degrees in Detroit.
NWS Forecast
Today
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3 pm, then a chance of thunderstorms after 5 pm. High near 70. Breezy, with a south-southwest wind of 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers after 8 pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 41. Breezy, with a west wind of 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.
Friday
Cloudy through mid-morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 53. West northwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Light and variable wind.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind is coming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 38.
Sunday
Showers are likely, mainly after 2 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Showers. Cloudy, with a low of around 46.
Monday
Showers. Cloudy, with a high near 67.
Monday Night
Showers. Cloudy, with a low of around 57.
Tuesday
Showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 45.
Wednesday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
Forecast Discussion
- Breezy with Few Showers and Storms This Morning, and Dry but Windy for Trick-or-Treating Southerly flow ramps up this morning as strong mixing occurs ahead of an approaching cold front. A broken line of showers are already slowly entering into northwest lower and will overspread the area from west to east during the mid-morning to early afternoon hours. Low instability will support some weak storms while the main story will be the wind hazard. A hefty 50+ knot 850 mb low level jet will nose into lower Michigan near daybreak, supporting brief gusts to 40 to 50 mph with the passage of the front. The dry slot will pivot into southwest Michigan just in time for Trick-or-Treating, though post-frontal cold advection will support an increased wind threat this evening. Cold air aloft fosters even more efficient mixing, supplying winds to 50 knots or greater just off the surface to mix down, translating to gusts to 50 mph at the surface. Winds remain gusty into the early overnight but will begin to settle around or just after midnight. Aside from gusty winds, temperatures will be on the decline this evening during Trick-or-Treating time following the passage of the cold front. Temps in the 50s are expected around 8pm, and down into widespread 40s by midnight. Friday morning lows in the mid 30s further north near US-10, and low 40s elsewhere. Wrap around moisture will support some lake enhanced rain showers starting after midnight Friday. - Wetter Pattern Setting up for Next Week Lake enhanced rain showers should be tapering off Friday night as surface high builds in. Good radiational cooling conditions will result in lows in the 20s across much of the area Saturday morning. The surface high moves east and return flow moisture increases late in the weekend with warm air advection/isentropic ascent bringing increases chances of rain Sunday into Monday. Rain chances increase even more as western CONUS upper troughing ejects northeast with sfc low pressure moving from the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Gulf inflow into this circulation should bring steady, heavier rains Monday night into Tuesday along with mild temperatures. A cold front sweeps east by Wednesday with fair and cooler weather returning.
Happy Halloween…
It’s been one year since the historic Halloween snow in Muskegon. I measured 10” that day in the location I was. You could have went snowmobiling and snowshoeing on Halloween. Pretty rare event. Amazing the difference in weather this year compared to last.
Records were either tied or set once again yesterday with record highs of 79 at Grand Rapids, 78 at Flint and Saginaw, 77 at Detroit and Alpena. New record warm lows were also set a all locations with lows in the mid to upper 60’s The overnight low here in my MBY was 67. The current reading is 68 with dark clouds to the west.
Slim
Yesterday was an incredibly warm late October day At Grand Rapids official H/L was 79/65 the 79 tied the record while the 65 is a new record warm low \. for the date. There was no rainfall, the sun was out 29% of the time and the peak wind was 36MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 54/38 the record high of 79 was set in 1950 the coldest high of 32 was set in 1917. The record low of 20 was set in 1988 the warmest low of 61 was set in 1974. The wettest… Read more »
Besides the oddity of being 80 degrees when it’s almost November, we have an even stranger occurrence here at our house. Our lilac bushes, which my dad planted almost 60 years ago when he built the house, have flowers blooming AND new leaves opening like it’s Spring. We have never once seen this happen in the Fall. Spring has sprung?
Wow!! I love lilacs.
This is what I found about why some times spring flowers bloom in the Fall.
Spring-flowering plants may bloom in fall due to weather conditions or because they were stressed during the growing season
Slim
I read that too. It has been a dry Fall, but there has to have been other dry Falls in the past 60 years I would think. Never triggered the lilacs and leaves to bloom here before. Very odd sight with purple flowers and new green leaves all over the bush.