I am pleased to announce the reentry of the sun into our forecast today after a dreary weather pattern, enjoy it while it lasts. Expect mainly mostly sunny skies today. It will still be cold as our below normal temp pattern continues. Other than a few morning flurries today, dry weather will prevail through Tuesday. The next system will arrive for Tuesday night, bringing icy conditions to much of Lower Michigan into Wednesday morning.
Yesterday we made it to only 28° with an overnight low of 18°. We had another .3 of an inch of snow which brings us to six inches for the month and 60.4 inches since November first which is 21 inches more than last winter season (2020 – 2021).
Forecast Discussion
-- Overview -- Ensembles of the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian have been remarkably consistent with the evolution of the synoptic pattern this week. A phasing of northern and southern stream upper-level troughs over the central US midweek will result in a consolidating and strengthening cyclone that will track near or over Lower Michigan Wednesday night. A number of runs have had min surface pressure dropping below 980 mb as the low moves north of our area. -- Today and Tuesday -- Very dry, moderated Arctic air will be in place at the surface today and Tuesday. High pressure overhead Monday night will result in another chilly but calm night. Mid-level clouds increase on Tuesday ahead of the low. -- Freezing rain potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning -- Isentropic ascent of mid-level warm and moist air flowing in from the southwest will result in precipitation developing Tuesday night. There may also be a hint of instability for 850-700 mb parcels to assist in developing heavier showers and a small chance of lightning. When the precip arrives, very dry air near the surface should support additional cooling of near-32 degree temperatures, giving most locations a period of sleet to freezing rain at the onset. This is not a classic long-duration freezing rain setup given that warm-air advection will commence at the surface during the morning hours of Wednesday. But cold air should hang on long enough in the highlands of Central Michigan, and up to 0.2 inches of ice is plausible there, resulting in some hazardous Wednesday morning road conditions. Lighter ice amounts are possible around Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Jackson, and it will be a close call as to when it warms up enough to end the impacts to travel conditions. -- Warm, Rainy, Becoming Windy Wednesday night -- Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, with a decent shot at reaching the 60s in southern Michigan and the 50s in central Michigan. However it will be mostly cloudy and breezy, and light rain showers could persist in some locations. As the deepening low reaches our area Wednesday evening, showers will become likely. Given the strengthening wind fields and vertical wind shear in the low levels (50 to 60 knot winds 1000 to 2000 feet above ground level in the GFS), there is some concern for stronger wind gusts to mix down. Fortunately, mid-level lapse rates are likely to be weak, and dry air in the low to mid levels may also be lacking. Even weak convection would be of concern though. The forecast soundings also aren`t very convincing of lightning potential, however, given the significant dynamical cooling expected in the mid-levels from the ongoing cyclogenesis, some lightning and thunder can`t be ruled out. A swath of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible in part of the area by Wednesday night. -- Cooling Off Thursday into Friday with Snow -- Wednesday night into Thursday will be quite breezy regardless of convection, due to the strengthening low. Cold air wrapping around the backside of the low will drop our temperatures Thursday and Friday, back to the cooler-than-normal side. The backside of the upper level trough will be slow to depart, so showers will continue into Friday. By Thursday night, it will become cold enough for snow showers, and light accumulations are again possible.
Winter Storm Watches for northern Lower MI and Eastern UP. Yet another freezing rain event. Will I get more pictures of this one as well?!?
Heading to Cape Coral Florida Thursday temps in the mid 80’s real Spring break Warmth! INdY
But why INDY?? I thought you hated warm temps this time of year??
Naaa im ready for some warmth and some cold Spriites its been a long Winter…Its time. Just no hot weather.InDY
Lol!! Well have a fantastic trip INDY!! Drink plenty of Sprites to stay hydrated!
You are correct, that is some real Warm Spring break weather! Have fun!
Thanks Guys!! I will check in time to time InDy
The latest long range guess from the CFSv2 are hinting at a very cool cool and somewhat wet April coming up. So I would not be too quick to put away the winter coats just yet.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
Slim
Certainly the first half of April… I always question 14+ days out, but clearly no sign of a sustained spring-like pattern for the first half of the month at least
Yeahh we gotten snow and cold in April the last feel years I never get my hopes up for any real sustainable warmth till May around west Michigan and even in May we can have twmps in the 40’s but it doesn’t last long ….InDzy
Hopefully by May the weather will actually break for some actual nice warm Spring temps and sun?
Breaking News>>>>yesterday was a whopping 15 degrees below normal! What a cold spell!
Shivering snowmans…InDY
Wow, just wow! What a winter weekend it was! Let it snow, let it snow! The latest CPC entrenches us in cold air right into the 2nd week of April! So much for nice warm Spring certain people keep telling us about!
There are hints from the CFSv2 that much of April could be on the cold side. No hint of a warm spring just yet.
Slim
Dome C, Antarctica had a high temperature ~10 days ago that was 69.3 F ABOVE average, the most extreme excess above normal ever observed anywhere in history. I believe the official reading was 13.8F… so really cold, but still wow!
I saw that! There was a three-day stretch when most of the continent was +50. The article I read said for comparison, it would have been like Chicago being 115 and Tucson at 148. That’s insane!
Just crazy!
Also the March 2012 heatwave in Grand Rapids had a departure of approximately 42F above average with a high of 87F. If that day were to have been 69.3F above average it would have instead been around 111F on March 21!
I just read more about that event.
“The +38.5C/+69.3F is a new world record for the largest excess above average ever measured at an established weather station.”
“It would be as if the high temperature in Washington DC on Monday — normally 61 degrees — was an unthinkable 131 degrees. In reality, the warmest it’s ever been there on March 28 was 85 degrees.”
After 12 above average temp days in a row, we finally had a little cool down. But I see 50’s and 60’s back in the forecast.
The little “cool down” was one of the coldest for the latter part of March. But as happens many times after a cold shot it looks to warm up for at least a day or two this week. Going from a high of 29 to maybe the low 60’s is a big change for our area.
Slim
Lol, nice try! Mid winter cold and accumulating snow! What an incredible shot of winter in late March and more to come!
Still warm for March with below average snow. I love it!
Lol..
The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 29. That is the 5th coldest high for any March 27th at Grand Rapids and the coldest for the date since a high of 28 in 1955. The coldest maximum for the date is 24 in 1904. The overnight low here in MBY was 15 the official overnight low at GRR was 17 and that is the 8 coldest low for any March 28th at Grand Rapids. This month has seen a couple of extremes. Back on March the high of 67 was the 8th warmest. So this month has seen both… Read more »
Lots of much-needed sun yesterday and today. It is still soggy in these parts with standing water throughout the area. From the Discussion above, “A swath of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible in part of the area
by Wednesday night.” Yeah, I really don’t think we need that right now.
With the cold last night the ground is frozen and while there is some greening up of the grass it is still very brown here NW of Grand Rapids. So while maybe not needed it should help green up the grass a bit more.
Slim