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Enjoy the Warm Air

Yesterday we reached 34.5° and the morning low was 15°.  After temperatures sneak above freezing today, true Arctic air is set to spill through Michigan during the first half of next week. Snow showers will be frequent, particularly near Lake Michigan. Wind chills dropping below -15 at times can cause frostbite to occur in under 30 minutes.

After temperatures sneak above freezing on Friday, the coldest air in 6 years is set to visit Michigan during the first half of next week.


February Outlook


Weather History

952: Temperatures rise to record highs of 61 degrees at Battle Creek, 59 degrees at Lansing and 56 at Grand Rapids.

1982: For the second time in a week, extremely cold arctic air drops temperatures to record low levels. The low of 9 below zero at Muskegon is followed by an afternoon high of 7 above. It is even colder away from Lake Michigan where high temperatures remain below zero during the day. Lansing has a high of 1 below and Battle Creek maxes out at 3 below.

On January 17, 2009, snow overspread southeast Michigan around 10 a.m. and continued into the night. Twenty-One hour snowfall totals averaged 4 to 7 inches along and north of I-94 with a few isolated 8 inch reports north of I-69. A low pressure system tracking from Wisconsin eastward across Mid Michigan was responsible for the snow. Some of the higher snowfall totals included Auburn (Bay County) 8.0 inches, Pontiac (Oakland) 7.2 inches, and Fairgrove (Tuscola) 8.0 inches.

Also on January 17, 2004, the city of Sebewaing in Huron County received 6.0 inches of snow from a passing snowstorm.


Forecast Discussion

- Becoming milder and quite windy today

Strong sw flow waa will develop today well out ahead of the cold
front which will be moving through tonight. This will help to
boost high temps this afternoon well into the 30s to near the 40
degree mark after (relatively) milder early morning temps and in
spite of the snow cover.

SW winds will gust to 30 to 40 mph at times this afternoon. As
such wind gusts should stay just below wind advisory criteria and
it is challenging to achieve advisory criteria gusts in a waa
pattern. Nevertheless a few gusts may get pretty close to advisory
criteria this aftn particularly over our nw fcst area as
suggested by a consensus blend of latest high res shorter range
model guidance.

Gusty winds will persist early to mid evening before only slowly
subsiding overnight. The cold front will bring a light wintery mix
of pcpn mainly over our se fcst area tonight which will transition
to light snow before ending. Light snow accumulations of around an
inch or less are expected near to se of a line from KAZO to KLAN
overnight.

- High confidence in very cold conditions Sunday - Wednesday

NW flow caa commences after fropa early Saturday morning and temps
will fall through the 20s during the day and into the teens by
aftn/eve. Look for lake effect snow showers to develop and ramp up
in coverage and intensity Saturday night as h8 temps plummet to
around -20 to -22 C by 12Z Sun with increasing low to mid level
moisture. Several inches of les are expected Sunday into Monday in
our favored WNW flow snow belt regions.

Temps will continue to fall through the teens Sunday and then
mainly into the 5 below to 5 above zero range for mins early
Monday.

Mon/Tue will be bitterly cold with high temps both days ranging
from near zero to around 5 degrees above zero. Mins both nights
will fall to below zero at many locations and just how cold it
gets both nights will be largely contingent on amount of clearing.
Locations that go mostly clear on either night could easily see
mins fall to around -10 to -15.

There is less potential for accumulating les by Mon/Tue given the
bitterly cold dry airmass in place by then and snow microphysics
at those temps favoring columns/plates/very small dendrites which
will not accumulate much. Nevertheless some travel impacts are
likely right through the middle of the week given lighter snow
showers and very cold temps.
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What a winter! Keep it coming!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Anyone catch that gorgeous sunrise this morning? The sun is a welcome sight. The roads are dry and clear. I’m going to take advantage of the weather today and wash my vehicle to get the salt off of it.

*SS*
*SS*

Yes. I flew open the curtains… To let the sun in…

INDY
INDY

Prepare now folk’s it’s a coming the polar Vortex…INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It will be interesting to see if Kent is in a WWA or a WSW? Bring it on!

*SS*
*SS*

I am concerned with the “robust” amount of snow they keep speaking about….

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The bigger concern will be the extreme cold, very slippery roads and the wind! The snow is actually the easy part!!!! Get prepared now!

*SS*
*SS*

I know cold will not be good… But throw the robust snow it will make it that much worse with roads and what not. We have a lot of family that plows….so they will have to be out.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Lake effect is very hard to pin point – but I feel that Kent, Allegan and Ottawa County’s are in a good spot for some decent snow!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The CPC maps are a thing of beauty! Above normal precip the last week of January and for Feb! Just think some people are still saying it is an easy winter and a dry month of January! It is time the review the FACTS!! 1. We are currently above normal for January and seasonal snowfall!!!!!! 2. Current pattern = snow on virtually every day and cold waves arriving on a regular basis! 3. The RDB prediction for 80 to 90 inches of snow is right on track! 4. February will be snowier than normal! 5. There will be widespread school… Read more »