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End of Spring – The Michigan Weather Center
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End of Spring

Hmmm, 50 years ago I graduated high school in Madison Maine.  Where did the time go?

We are closing the spring season with 11.45 inches of rainfall (in Otsego).  We will begin the meteorological summer with warmer temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern.  Today will be mostly sunny and a warm 77°.  Tomorrow the rain starts and will be around off and on most of next week.


CPC Forecast

We will start the month of June with near-normal temperatures and rainfall then progress into a below-normal period the second week of June with near-normal rain.


NWS Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 77. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
Tonight
Increasing clouds, with a low of around 53. South southeast wind around 6 mph.
Saturday
There is a chance of showers, then showers, and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. High near 71. South southeast wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%—new rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 11 pm, then a chance of showers between 11 pm and 2 am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Low around 57. East-southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest after midnight. The chance of precipitation is 80%—new rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday
A 10 percent chance of showers before 8 am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. North northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Monday
There is a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 pm and 2 am, and then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 63.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Wednesday
Showers are likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 81.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms are likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 60.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Weather History

1943: A tornado outbreak hit southern Lower Michigan. Ten people were injured as homes were swept away by a powerful tornado that moved southeast of Morrice in Shiawassee County. A tornado killed livestock and destroyed a barn near Morley in Mecosta County. A home near Coopersville in Ottawa County was unroofed by a tornado and three people were injured. Another tornado struck near Bath in Clinton County destroying one barn.

1954: A tornado struck north of Bangor in Van Buren County. Forty barns were damaged or destroyed and one home was unroofed. Damage totaled about half a million dollars.

1998: A squall line of severe thunderstorms moves across Lower Michigan in the early morning with wind gusts between 90 and 120 mph. Thousands of trees are knocked down and hundreds of homes and businesses suffer damage. Sections of the state are declared a major disaster area and thousands are without power, some for several days.

On May 31, 1998, a severe squall line moved through all of Lower Michigan during the early morning hours. Wind gusts were measured at 86 mph at the Tri-Cities Airport and 81 mph at the Essexville Coast Guard.

On May 31, 1999, an F2 tornado moved through the city of Midland at 5:38 PM causing destruction for 2 miles. The total amount of damage caused by this tornado was estimated to be $150,000. This tornado ties with an F2 tornado that moved through Midland County on April 14, 1974, as the strongest tornado to ever hit Midland County.

Also on May 31, 2011, an EF1 tornado with maximum winds estimated to 95 mph hit central Bay County. The path width was 200 yards with a path length of 8.4 miles. The tornado started near Parish Road and an 11-mile road just west of the community of Beaver. The tornado then moved through Beaver, crossed Interstate 75, and finally across the south part of Linwood before moving out to Saginaw Bay. A barn was destroyed and homes were damaged near Beaver, mostly to garages and roofing material. Numerous trees were uprooted with snapped large limbs.

1830: Shelbyville, Tennessee was turned into “a heap of ruins” as a tornado moved east through the center of the town. This tornado destroyed 15 homes and 38 businesses along with churches and other public buildings. Losses were estimated to be as high as $100,000. A book was said to be carried seven miles away.

1889: The Johnstown, Pennsylvania disaster occurred, the worst flood tragedy in U.S. history. Heavy rains collapsed the South Fork Dam sending a thirty-foot wall of water rushing down the already flooded Conemaugh Valley. The wall of water, traveling as fast as twenty-two feet per second, swept away all structures, objects, and people. The flood killed around 2100 people. Click HERE for more information.

2013: The 2nd of the top 10 weather events for 2013 was EL Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013. Part of the multi-day storm outbreak caused $2 billion in damage. The EF3 that traveled through the western suburbs of Oklahoma City was the largest tornado ever observed with a width of 2.6 miles. It took eight lives including four tornado chasers.


Forecast Discussion

- Dry and mostly sunny Friday

With the surface high pressure center slipping east of our area
today, high temperatures will be several degrees warmer than
Thursday with light southerly winds. Some cirrus clouds will be
streaming in, and those should be the only clouds given a very dry
middle and lower troposphere. Afternoon relative humidity is
expected to drop below 40 percent except near the cooler Lake
Michigan shore.

- Showers and chance thunderstorm moving in Saturday afternoon

A southern stream wave of low pressure over Okla/Ark today/tonight,
augmented by its associated convection, may move northeast toward
Indiana on Saturday, while northern stream troughing also impinges
on the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture surging north into Lower
Michigan during Saturday afternoon is likely to fuel showers and
possibly thunderstorms depending on the depth of instability that
can be achieved with modest lapse rates.

There remains considerable spread among the global and high
resolution ensembles in QPF max amount and placement by Saturday
night, given the uncertainty in how the southern wave`s propagation
may be tugged by its own convection amid weak upper-level flow.
Plausible rainfall amounts across the area range from 0.1 to 0.5
inches, with a chance of a swath of over 1 inch occurring. Southern
Michigan, including the Grand and Kalamazoo river basins, has a
relatively higher probability of receiving heavier amounts compared
to farther north.

- Medium confidence in timing of shortwave features in progressive
flow regime next week

Ensemble spread is decreasing and run to run consistency is
indicating higher confidence in the details for sensible weather
next week.

There continues to be a signal for rain late Monday as a shortwave
trough approaches and minors out...then a stronger signal on
Wednesday/Thursday as a better-defined trough or cut off low
approaches from the Northern Plains. This low figures in the
evolution of a longwave trough by the end of the week with cooler
than normal temperatures.
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Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Boy I am in another great mode today! I think I will get some yard work done and then take a dip! Have a great weekend everybody!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What? More below normal temps in June!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

My dad also graduated high school exactly 50 years ago! Then went to Michigan State and got his masters, I think he started working around 1980 (give or take a year)

Mookie
Mookie

Best meteorological spring ever?

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Another cloud-free, blue sky morning. Man, we have been blessed with favorable weather. I hope it continues.

Slim

The official H/L yesterday was 71/45 there was no rainfall the sun was out 100% of the time. Unlike most days this spring it was a calm day with the peak wind gust of just 14 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is now 75/54 the record high of 95 was set in 1934 and the record low of 36 was set in 1966. The record rainfall of 1.37” fell in 1909. Last year it was a hot 90/64.
Slim

Slim

The overnight low here in my back yard was a cool 47 and with clear skies that is also the current temperature.
Slim