El Nino and Fall Outlook

Hard to believe we are in the last month of meteorological summer and can look forward to our climate to slowly change towards a cooler wetter pattern for the Great Lakes region.  The days are getting shorter and fall is just around the corner.  Most of you know how I feel about long range forecasts and computer models beyond a couple days but with the water temps warming in the eastern Pacific we how an El Nino watch in place.  Dependent on the strength of the El Nino we could have a cooler or an above normal temperature forecast.  A weak El Nino could produce a cooler then normal fall and winter while a strong one could give us the opposite.  As of now we are predicted to have a weak El Nino this fall into early winter.  The odds of El Niño emerging in the tropical Pacific by fall have risen to 65%, and by winter to 70%.

Once the El Nino is in place we should see tropical activity increase in the Pacific – As a result, the Great Lakes and upper Midwest could see below-average temperatures in late August, with near- or slightly below-average temperatures in many other central and eastern locations. In the West, the opposite is expected, with widespread hotter-than-average conditions forecast, particularly in Southern California and south Texas.  We could see a warmer September and a cooler than normal October dependent on the tropical storms and movement of the jet.

At this time we have tropical storm Debbie several hundred miles off the coast of New England which is expected to move away from the U.S. .  Hurricane John is off the coast of Baja and expected to curve away from the coast and we have Hurricane Kristy well off the the Eastern Pacific east of Mexico.  We also have hurricane Hector moving just south of Hawaii – there is a tropical storm warning for the big island.

Still, I believe all the forecasts are still up in the air until El Nino falls into place and storm activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific increases and our jet stream becomes more active.

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Weather History

August 5

1947: The temperature hits 93 at Muskegon and 100 degrees at Grand Rapids, where it will reach the century mark again the next day. A total of 17 days during the month had high temperatures of 90 or above at Grand Rapids. This is the hottest August on record for Lansing, Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

1968: Tornadoes caused scattered damage across Lower Michigan. One tornado hit southeast of Grand Rapids, damaging several farms from Kentwood and into Ionia County. Another tornado damaged two houses southwest of Lansing. A third tornado damaged a boat and dock near Houghton Lake in Roscommon County.

August 6

1918: Southwest Lower Michigan was in the grip of an extreme heat wave. Both Grand Rapids and Lansing set their highest temperature on record for the month of August at 102 degrees. At Lansing, it also ties the record for their all-time highest temperature.

1955: A tornado injured one person in Hastings and another tornado caused minor damage near Norvell in Jackson County.

1998: A small tornado downed trees and did minor damage to an outbuilding at Hamiliton in Allegan County.

August 7

1900: An eight day heat wave continues with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Adding to the discomfort are warm and muggy night time low temperatures that only fall to the mid and upper 70s.

1996: Heavy rains of over 3 inches flooded roads and streams in Lansing and Grand Ledge.

2008: Several waterspouts are observed over Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to South Haven. At least one of them appears to come onshore, but no damage occurs.

August 8

1894: Only four days after record cool weather in the 30s and 40s, the thermometer soars to record highs of 96 at Grand Rapids and 99 at Lansing.

1939: A tornado outbreak across central and southern Lower Michigan resulted in two deaths and about 100 injuries. A violent tornado moved across the southeast part of Kalamazoo, destroying dozens of homes and killing two people. More homes were destroyed and six people were injured in northern Kent County, northeast of Cedar Springs.

1973: A tornado injures five people and damages eight houses in Carson City, Montcalm County.

1977: A tornado destroys a barn and trailer north of Marion in Osceola County.

August 9

1964: Less than a week after hitting 100 degrees the temperature plummets to a record cold 38 degrees at Lansing and 43 at Grand Rapids. Muskegon went from 99 degrees on the 3rd to a low of 40 degrees this morning.

1994: Cool weather prevails for several days with low humidity and high temperatures only in the 60s. Record cool maximum temperatures are observed at Grand Rapids and Lansing, where the high on this date is only 64 degrees.

2009: A thunderstorm brings damaging downburst winds estimated at 70 to 75 mph to Muskegon County. The storm strikes Hoffmaster State Park and Fruitport, downing dozens of trees and causing some damage to homes. The storms continue into Kent County, hitting Kent City and Sparta. Another severe thunderstorm produces a downburst that blows part of the roof off a school in Jackson.

August 10

1944: The first half of August produces seven days in the 90s, peaking with a record high of 98 degrees at Grand Rapids and 95 at Muskegon on this date.

1971: A tornado damages some cottages near Croton Dam in Newaygo County.

1972: High pressure from Canada brings record low temperatures, including the 40 degrees at Lansing, 45 at Grand Rapids, and 47 at Muskegon.

August 11

1864: Lansing hits 101 degrees. This was the all-time high temperature record for Lansing before being broken by a reading of 102 in 1894.

1941: It was a soggy day as Grand Rapids and Muskegon set daily rainfall records of about an inch and a half.

2004: Cool and cloudy weather was observed with high temperatures only in the 60s. Record low maximum temperatures occur at Grand Rapids with 63 degrees, 64 at Lansing and 61 at Muskegon.

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Rainfall reports from CoCoRaHS this morning are showing .32 in Lawton, .60 in Decatur, 1.54 in Paw Paw, 2.80 in Battle Creek, .10 in Holland, .40 in Wayland, .16 in Caledonia, .10 in Grand Rapids, 1.03 in Lansing and 2.08 in Battle Creek.  We had .65 here in Otsego which puts us at 2.10 for the month.

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