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Dry Week Ahead

Yesterday we had a high temperature of 78° and a morning low of 41°.  We have had no rainfall today and no expectations of any for the week.  12 days have passed since our last measurable rainfall in Otsego.


Drought Monitor

There will be strong northwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph today. Couple those conditions with the fact that most of the lower Michigan is abnormally dry, so that will bring an elevated wildfire danger Sunday, October 6th, 2024.  Northern Michigan and the U.P. are in the moderate to severe drought classification.


Weather History

1998: A squall line moved across Lower Michigan producing tornadoes, downbursts, and some flooding. A tornado struck Ferris State University in Big Rapids, injuring seven students. Another tornado moved from northern Isabella County into southern Clare County, damaging several homes. Total damage from the storms was more than a million dollars.

On October 6, 1963, the temperature rose to 89 degrees in Flint. This ties with October 1, 2002, and October 3, 1953, for the record maximum temperature for the month of October in Flint.


NWS Forecast

Today
A 20 percent chance of showers before 8 am. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a temperature rising to near 72 by noon, then falling to around 64 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a west wind of 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 44. North northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Northwest wind 5 to 11 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 40. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 65. Light northwest wind becoming west northwest at 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low of around 38.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 65.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low of around 37.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 67.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low of around 43.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 73.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 51.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 77.

Forecast Discussion

- Breezy With Elevated Fire Danger Today

Little in the way of showers have developed along the cold front
moving through the area this morning as upper-level support remains
with the parent trough to the north. This compounds the lack of
moisture due to little significant rainfall over the last month.
West winds of 15-20 mph and gusts exceeding 30 mph at times are
expected. RH values are forecast to fall near 30 percent, with some
guidance like the HRRR/RAP pushing RH values into the 20s given
favorable mixing. These combine to bring conditions near Red Flag
(Fire Weather) Warning criteria, particularally east of a line
from Mount Pleasant to Kalamazoo. This region is where the overlap
of mixing of mid-level dry air and the warmest maximum
temperatures will casue RH values to fall the lowest.

- Cooling Down Into Early Next Week

Troughing moving through today into Monday will cause highs to fall
into the 60s by Monday. High pressure moving in will keep conditions
dry. Lake effect clouds are expected to develop Sunday Night as the
thermal trough passes overhead, with 850mb temps in the 2-4 C range
cause over-lake instability to develop.

- Dry and cool next week

High pressure of Canadian origin builds in early next week and will
bring frost/freeze threat Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Looks like both Wednesday and THursday morning will have lows in the
lower to mid 30s with the surface ridging centered near Lower
Michigan.

Still no signal for rain in the forecast through the end of next
week, but some showers are possible beginning next weekend as a
baroclinic zone sets up across the central Great Lakes.
newest oldest
*SS*
*SS*

Ok not as strong as I was hoping but more substorms of Auroras tonight. Never thought I could see them when it wasn’t dark..guess I was wrong

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Many fires breaking out across the state today. We really need rain.

*SS*
*SS*

And no Auroras….Boo!!!

Slim

And we had mostly clear skies
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

I know such a bummer. I was so excited for the weekend outlook!!
Now worried about Milton… Keeping in touch with family down that way!!

Slim

The great early fall weather continued yesterday with a H/L of 72/42 there was no rainfall the sun was out 92% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 65/45 the record high of 87 was set in 2007 the coldest high of 43 was set in 1964 the record low of 28 was set in 1964 and 2003 the warmest low of 68 was set in 2007 the most rainfall of 1.58” fell in 2016.
Slim