Yesterday was another great day in the weather department with mainly sunny skies. Our high was 78° and the low was 55°. This month has been on the dry side thus far with only .59 of an inch of rain in Otsego.
We are in the second half of September and it is time to bring in the thoughts of our first freeze like it or not. We still have about a month to go before seeing this come into the playing field. Below are the dates of earliest and latest freeze dates:
Towards the end of next week, we will see a cooling trend coming into the pictures shown in the 8 to 14-day outlook from the CPC:
-- Mostly dry through Saturday -- Most of the area should see a majority of the next two days with a decent amount of sunshine and dry weather. First of all, the smoke modeling indicates that the milky white skies we saw yesterday with the wildfire smoke should shift to the ESE and allow for more blue skies today. We will see some thin high clouds float by, but the net change will be the appearance of more sun. It does look like most of Saturday will remain dry, and see a fair amount of sun also. The caveat to that is that Central Lower (and areas further North) will see a small chance of a shower or some sprinkles. This will be facilitated by a weakening short wave that will take aim mostly on Northern Michigan. Moisture progs show that moisture return will be quite limited, which is what should keep rain chances fairly small on Saturday. -- Rain chances increase Sunday and Sunday Night -- Rain chances will be increasing on Sunday, but they will be kind of on and off through that time frame until Sunday night. We will see the leading edge of the low level jet impinging on the area from the WNW Sun morning. However, as the low level jet starts to approach the area, it will go through its normal diurnal weakening. This will result in a few showers and maybe a storm surviving into the area, but any rain will be on a weakening trend for the first part of the area. What is left of this low level jet will shift east of the area by late Sunday afternoon. The models do not indicate significant amounts of instability with cloud cover and some showers around, limiting the amount of destabilization that can occur. We will see better instability advect over the area Sunday evening as moisture pooling ahead of the incoming cold front will help destabilize the atmosphere ahead of it. Widespread rain and severe weather does not look likely at this time, as there is another low level jet that develops and is focused on Northern Indiana. The shower and storm chances will linger into the early morning hours of Monday when the front will clear the area to the east. -- Unsettled for the coming week ending with cooler weather -- We should see a break in the weather in the wake of the cold front that moves through Monday morning. Right now, it looks like the latter half of Monday and Tuesday morning would be dry. Then, rain chances would return on Tuesday afternoon as the next wave embedded in the somewhat zonal flow over the region would arrive. As we get into the small waves of next week, the timing is apt to change a bit. As this next wave does come through around Tuesday afternoon, the chance of rain, with a chance of a storm during peak heating would be plausible. The next period of weather then looks to arrive over the area around the late Wednesday time frame. This feature will be another short wave, but this time the long wave trough is expected to dive southeast over the area. The models have been fairly consistent in showing this trough diving over the area. It will support a fairly formidable cold front to move through, dropping 850 mb temps from 22- 23C ahead of it supporting higher 80s to 90, then dropping to +4C by 12z Thursday. That kind a strong front associated with a strong upper system, along with a strong mid and upper level flow, could bring some severe weather possibilities. This is still way to early to nail down details like that, but we will continue to monitor. Either way, it does look like much cooler air will be arriving later next week. Depending on the way the low comes in, there could be some instability showers in its wake next Thursday, and maybe even some lake effect rain showers.