Dry conditions persist across the state with the exception of the western counties of the U.P.. Here in Otsego, we have had 1.24 inches of rain for the month of April and 3.15 inches for March and April combined. There are a few showers moving through this morning which will not amount to much. The lack of soaking rains this spring and below-normal snowfall this winter has caused a persistent drought in the state and a good portion of the U.S. continues to have drought conditions.
In the Midwest, a half-inch of precipitation fell along the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Rivers, parts of northern Ohio and Indiana, and central Minnesota to Upper Michigan. Parts of far northern Wisconsin had an inch or more. But much of the Ohio Valley states, and Iowa to Lower Michigan, had little to no precipitation this week. Streamflow, soil moisture, and 1- to 2-month SPI indicators prompted the expansion of D0 in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, while D1 expanded in northern parts of Indiana and Illinois, across southern Wisconsin, into southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa where deficits were mounting as seen in 1- to 4-month SPI values. D0 also expanded in the latter 3 states. D1 was expanded across Lower Michigan where precipitation deficits over the last 90 days have been building, streams are low, and soil moisture continues to dry. USDA statistics show 30% of the state is experiencing topsoil moisture that is short to very short (dry to very dry), an increase of 17% over the last week. The statistics increased to 34% in Iowa, 25% in Minnesota, and 21% in Wisconsin.
Our next best chance of rain comes Monday night into Tuesday (or so our best computer guesses say). The last rain models over this week have failed miserably so we will have to see how this all plays out. CPC guesses for May give us a 43% chance of above-normal rain.
- Cool with scattered showers today as upper trough moves through Scattered showers across Wisconsin will move southeast and cross the forecast area this morning into the afternoon, holding temperatures into the lower to mid 50s today. The upper trough axis moves east with surface ridging and subsidence bringing clearing by this evening. Frost is possible tonight along with some freezing temperatures across the northern forecast area. Temperatures are not expected to be cold enough to result in a Freeze Warning being issued. Per coordination with APX and DTX, Frost Advisories will not be issued until Monday. The growing season will expand to include the rest of our forecast area at that time as well. - Low pressure moves along stalled front with rain and a few thunderstorms expected Sunday into early next week Baroclinic zone sets up across the central Great Lakes region this weekend and Gulf moisture streams northward with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday into Monday. Surface low moving along the front on Monday expected to bring the bulk of the heavier QPF, with around a half inch basin average. Upper troughing follows after the low moves by on Tuesday and provides generally cooler than normal temperatures through the end of the week.