Drought Monitor – Forecast for 3/3

Yesterday we reached 33° after a morning low of 20°.

Today will be the calm before an unsettled weather pattern moves in for the rest of the week.  We will see partly sunny skies with a high near 44 and south southwest wind of 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.  Rain showers move in tonight through Wednesday night giving us a good soaking rain.  Most of the state is in an abnormally dry to severe drought situation.

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Drought Monitor

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Weather History

1943: Arctic air dominates the first ten days of the month. Record cold temperatures this morning including the 10 below zero at Muskegon and the 9 below at Grand Rapids.

1983: Record highs are set across Lower Michigan with Grand Rapids hitting 72 degrees and Muskegon 69 degrees. The first week of March is incredibly balmy with six straight days of high temperatures of 60 or above at Grand Rapids.

On March 3, 2023, a significant winter storm impacted the area with snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour at times. Temperatures near or above freezing resulted in a heavy, wet snow that piled up quickly and caused additional damage to trees and power lines that were already stressed from several winter storms in the couple of weeks before this event. 200,000 customers lost power and widespread snow totals of 8 to 11 inches were observed. Daily snowfall records were set or tied at all three climate sites: Detroit – 6.2 inches (previous: 6.0 inches from 1875); Flint – 4.9 inches (previous 4.9 inches from 1954); Saginaw – 2.5 inches (previous: 2.3 inches from 2015).

On March 3, 2014, Flint set a new record for its coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of March. The temperature fell to -16 degrees. Meanwhile, Detroit only fell to zero degrees while a temperature of -6 was observed in Saginaw. Neither were records.

Also on March 3, 2002, the coldest temperature of the season hit Detroit with a reading of -4 degrees.

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Forecast Discussion

- Light Rain Late This Afternoon and Evening

Fair wx will prevail for much of the day today along with milder
temps this afternoon due to southerly flow waa which will help to
boost high temps into the lower to middle 40s. Some light warm air
advection rain showers will develop late this afternoon and
evening and will be most prevalent across our northern fcst area.
Some wet snow flakes may mix in over our far nne fcst area but no
impacts from winter wx will occur.

- Occasional Rain Late Tonight Through Wednesday

A strong low pressure system over the central Plains Tuesday will
move ene into our region Wednesday. Strong southerly flow warm air
advection and moisture advection will occur out ahead of this
system as precipitable water values reach anomalously high values
for this time of year by midweek.

Occasional rain is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with total
rainfall amounts in that time frame of around three quarters of an
inch to an inch and a quarter. Relatively highest amounts within
that range are expected north of the I-96 corridor. We cannot rule
out potential for an isolated storm or two mainly Wednesday over
our southern fcst area. However lack of sfc or elevated
instability of any significance is the main mitigating factor in
terms of this potential.

- Windy With Snow Showers Wednesday Night

Brisk north to nw flow caa will occur on the back side of this
robust system Wednesday evening and result in a rapid changeover
of pcpn to snow showers. However minor accumulations of only
around an inch or less are expected with amounts of around an inch
most probable from near KMKG northward.

Concern remains about potential for wind gusts to reach advisory
criteria across our area Wednesday night through around midday
Thursday and some scattered power outages may occur in that time
frame. Tranquil wx returns Thursday afternoon and Thursday night
followed by potential for a weak system to bring a light wintery
mix of pcpn for Friday.