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CPC Forecasts

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

Yesterday, the high was 26°, and the low was 17°. We had a few glimpses of the sun. High pressure will bring one more day of fair weather, and then a clipper will move through on Monday with light snow.  Temperatures will be on the rise this week with the chance of snow and rain in the forecast.

CPC Forecasts

January Forecast

 

January Precipitation Forecast

 

January 4 – 17th

 

January 4 – 17th

 

Weather History

1957: Balmy weather prevails with highs in the mid-50s. Muskegon sets a record high of 55 degrees.

2000: A long siege of arctic air and lake effect snow continues across Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Lansing is only 9 degrees with lake-effect snow showers swirling. It will be the coldest December of the 20th century at Lansing.

On December 22, 2013, an ice storm impacted locations from the northern Detroit suburbs to the Saginaw area as significant moisture became entrained along a frontal boundary. Widespread ice accretions of 0.5 to 0.75 inches were reported and numerous trees and power lines were downed. The ice storm even prompted Shiawassee County to declare a state of emergency due to unsafe traveling conditions. Further south, the precipitation fell as heavy rain while Bay, Midland, and Huron counties saw 2 to 4 inches of snow.

Also, on December 22, 1872, the temperature dropped to -24 degrees overnight in Detroit. This temperature reading is unofficially the lowest temperature ever recorded in the city of Detroit.

Forecast Discussion

- Light mix of precipitation Monday

High pressure will bring cold and tranquil wx today before a
fairly weak northern stream low pressure system brings increasing
clouds tonight and a light mix of pcpn Monday. A fairly strong
mid to upper level shortwave/pva should give pcpn a boost Monday
afternoon and early evening. However moisture with this system is
limited. Therefore we are only expecting a one to three inch type
snowfall near to north of the I-96 corridor (relatively highest
amounts well north of I-96 where thermal profiles are colder).

Meanwhile near to mainly south of the I-96 corridor thermal
profiles will moderate sufficiently enough for a wintry mix of
sleet and freezing drizzle and light rain to develop as suggested
by the 00Z HREF and some of our higher res short range guidance.
Therefore we expect snowfall amounts of just trace amounts to
under an inch south of I-96. However there may be just a bit of
light icing across this area. Any impacts from this mix across our
southern counties should be rather minimal given expectations for
pcpn to be rather light and for sfc temps to eventually reach the
mid 30s by mid to late afternoon into the evening.

- Slow moderating trend of temperatures this week

Temps will undergo a slow moderating trend from Christmas Day
through the rest of the week as flow becomes south to
southwesterly and upper ridging develops by late week. A fairly
tranquil wx pattern will develop with a chance for light warm air
advection precipitation for mid to late week. A better chance for
precipitation will come by next weekend as there will be plenty of
moisture in place by then and as a stronger low pressure system
moves ne from the Arklatex region. P-type will be plain rain given
a relatively milder airmass in place over our area by then.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

15 thoughts on “CPC Forecasts”

  1. Thank you for that info Slim. Interesting how our perceptions of the past are not always very accurate. Looks like this Christmas will be a brown one for sw Mich. Inevitably it’s not about the snow, it’s about the true meaning of the season 🙂

  2. …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
    accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth
    of an inch.

    * WHERE…Portions of south central and southwest Michigan.

    * WHEN…From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

    * IMPACTS…Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
    likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
    conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
    morning and evening commutes.

  3. …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
    accumulations 1 to 2 inches and ice accumulations less than a
    tenth of an inch.

    * WHERE…Clinton, Ionia, Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon Counties.

    * WHEN…From 7 AM to 11 PM EST Monday.

    * IMPACTS…Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
    likely become slick and hazardous.

  7. Percent of years with a white Christmas (1” or more on the ground) at Grand Rapids by decade since 1950. (1950’s 50%) (1960’s 90%) (1970’s 80%) (1980’s 50%.) (1990’s 70%) (2000/09 80%) (2010/19 50%) 2020/23 50%) At Lansing (1950’s 40%) (1960’s 80%) (1970’s 80%) (1980’s 60%) (1990’s 50%) (2000/09 80%) (2010/19 50%) (2020/23 25%) The most on the ground was in 1951 with 20” at Lansing and 22” at Grand Rapids.
    Slim

    1. Those poor people. What’s wild is that it’s 30 degrees warmer there now. Got down to 11 here.

  10. The official H/L yesterday at GRR was 25/9 there was a trace of snowfall the sun was out 65% of the time. There was 3” of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is 34/23 the record high of 57 was in 1941 the coldest high of 15 was in 1989,1951 the record low of -11 was in 1989 the warmest low of 44 was in 1931. The most snowfall of 8.5” was in 1951 the most on the ground was 19” in 1951.
    Slim

  11. I posted this late yesterday afternoon so I will toss it up once again.
    Here are some snowfall totals so far this season in Michigan. Northern lower Alpena 15.9”. Houghton Lake 21.2. Traverse City 48.4. Petoskey 45.3. Upper Michigan Sault Ste. Marie 74.4 Marquette 39.8. Herman 72.0. Ironwood 37.6. Southwest Michigan Grand Rapids 30.9. Muskegon 21.5. Lansing 11.9 . Southeast Michigan Detroit 4.8. Flint 9.6. Saginaw 4.2. As you can see most of the snow has been lake effect.
    Slim

    1. I have a question for you… What is the percentage of white Christmases now compared to 50 years ago?

      1. Good question. Mark Torregrossa of MLive recently said that it’s 50/50 historically. I don’t recall if he specified the data set he used.

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