Cooler with More Rain

We were in the sweet spot for a good thirst-quenching rain yesterday along with some thunder and lightning.  We had close to an inch in Otsego, I will get the official reading when I venture outside.  We have 51° at 6 am.  Yesterday’s high was 71° and the low was 50°.

Cooler air will flow into the region today and continue into next week. Showers can be expected today and into Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday’s highs will be in the 50s.

Weather History

1874: A record cold snap struck Lower Michigan with Lansing plunging to 16 degrees.

1975: Record warmth occurred with highs in the 80s. The 87 degrees at Grand Rapids was a record for the date and the highest temperature for so late in the season.

On October 13, 1909, Detroit experienced the second earliest measurable snowfall, with 0.4 inches of snow. Also, on this date in 1999, Detroit received 3/4-inch hail at 11:15 a.m.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Tonight

There is high confidence in development of showers and some embedded
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Excellent synoptic scale
support moves in with upper jet divergence, deep upper troughing and
a surface low development this afternoon. The arrival of the upper
trough with low level CAA yields lake-induced instability with
HRRR/Nam3km Bufkit soundings showing LI CAPE of over 1000 J/kg. The
CAMs have shower/storm development well in hand, with a N/S oriented
band of showers and embedded thunderstorms likely developing over
the lake in the 1pm-3pm window and pressing east, impacting most of
the region in the 3pm-8pm time frame. Can`t rule out some scattered
showers before that time, however. Any thunderstorms that develop
could produce hail and brief wind gusts up to around 40mph.

After dark, a region of steadier rain will likely set up north of I-
96, across central Lower MI, where the low`s pivot point will be
located. HREF PMM values support locally 1"-2" of rain especially
north of a RQB-LAN line Sunday evening into Monday morning. This
pivot point could potentially wobble a bit further south, but for
now the signal is across central Lower.

- Most Areas Drying Out Monday; Lakeshore Showers Possible

As the low moves east of our region Monday, 850mb temps go subzero
so there will plenty of instability over the lake. CAMs support
north flow lake effect rain showers, impacting only a limited
portion of the lakeshore. If surface winds go slightly more NNW,
then more of the lakeshore counties could be impacted. Synoptic rain
showers should be winding down Monday morning across the region and
inland areas should start to dry out during the afternoon.

- Midweek Frosts, Then A Warmup

Ensembles remain consistent in the overall synoptic evolution this
week. The upper-level low will become vertically stacked over
Maine/Quebec on Tuesday, while one more shortwave trough
on the backside of it reinforces the cold air over the Great Lakes.
Then the pattern slowly progresses east, with an amplified upper-
level ridge taking control over the Great Lakes mid-late week,
allowing for a few days of sunny weather and warming temperatures.

The core of low-level cold air, with 850 mb temperatures between -3
and -5 C, will be over the area between Monday night and Wednesday
morning. North-northeast surface flow Monday night will confine lake-
effect showers over Lake Michigan while some clearing occurs inland.
Good chance of a widespread frost and areas of sub-freezing
temperatures for Tuesday morning. Guidance for Tuesday night is a
little warmer with light northwest flow spreading some clouds
inland, but still may be frosty. 850 mb temperatures then warm up
Wednesday night, however, radiational cooling of the surface due to
clearing and calm conditions (with the surface high over the region)
will likely lead to another freeze for Thursday morning.