Cooler Today – Weather History 5/8

I wonder if any of you have noticed the NWS in Grand Rapids no longer posts forecast graphics for SW Michigan.  This has been going on for the past couple of weeks.  They also didn’t update their weather history for last year’s tornadoes in southern Michigan.  I wonder if this has to do with government cutbacks.  I believe this is one area we need to not mess with, especially during severe weather events.

Weather History

1976: A freeze hits Lower Michigan with Grand Rapids and Muskegon setting record lows of 27 degrees.

1880: A tornado destroyed two homes and a barn two miles east of Kalamazoo. No one was injured.

On May 8, 1964, an F4 tornado moved through Chesterfield Township in southern Macomb County, touching down at 4:59 pm. This tornado touched down north of Mt. Clemens and moved across Chesterfield Township near the Lake St. Clair shoreline before entering Lake St. Clair southwest of New Baltimore. This was the strongest tornado to ever hit Macomb County and was responsible for 13 fatalities.

Forecast Discussion

- Frost and possible freezing temperatures Thursday night

Anticipating at least a frost advisory will be needed for most or
all of the area for Thursday night. Good setup with a high
pressure ridge extending from northeast Ontario into Wisconsin,
clear skies, and winds becoming light or calm later in the night.
For now, a freeze watch is in effect for Osceola and Clare
counties (and areas to the north), to match up with the
climatologically coldest spots in north-central Lower Michigan.
However, the HREF temperature probabilities for 32 degrees or
lower more favor areas farther south in Mid Michigan, including
the greater Lansing area, compared to the NBM which is keying on
Clare/Osceola and north.

Thinking the HREF models are setting up areas south of Mount
Pleasant toward Lansing with a head-start on cooler evening
temperatures due a longer fetch of colder air off Lake Huron and
Saginaw Bay compared to farther north. Areas farther north may
have the advantage of winds going calm sooner. Overall, without
splitting hairs too much, it should work out to be a frosty
morning, or at least have the potential for temperatures locally
at or below 32, for a large portion of Lower Michigan.

- Mostly dry through early next week with warming trend

Broad upper-level ridging setting up over the northern CONUS and
southern Canada, supported by the global ensembles, favors mostly
sunny and dry conditions with a day-by-day warming trend into
Monday and possibly Tuesday. There is a slight chance of scattered
showers bubbling up on Saturday with a weak cold front passing
through.

- Chance of thunderstorms mid next week

A majority of members within the ENS, GEFS, and CMC have
increasing CAPE values Tuesday through at least Thursday next
week. Anticipating one or two slow-moving upper-level closed lows
or troughs during that time frame to exert influence on the Great
Lakes region, leading to chances for thunderstorms.