Yesterday was very warm by November standards, we reached 67° in Otsego with a few morning sprinkles. A line of storms brought some gusty winds and large hail to portions of western Michigan yesterday morning. Some hailstones ranged from pea to ping pong ball size! You can view additional storm reports at www.weather.gov/source/crh/lsrmap.html?sid=grr
Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected today with highs ranging from the low 40s near US10 to the low 50s near I94.
Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for November 7th:
1940: The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened on July 1st, 1940, and spanned the Puget Sound from Gig Harbor to Tacoma. At the time of its opening, the bridge was the third-longest suspension bridge in the world, covering nearly 6,000 feet. Before the bridge opened, high winds would cause the bridge to move vertically, giving the nickname Galloping Gertie. On this day in 1940, winds of 40 mph caused the bridge to collapse because of the physical phenomenon known as aeroelastic flutter. Click HERE for a YouTube video.
1951: At 7 AM, a blinding flash, a massive ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton, Oklahoma, by the concussion.
November 7th, 1951, Meteor Thu, November 8th, 1951 – Page 27 · The Times (Shreveport, Louisiana) · Newspapers.com1957: A historic tornado outbreak impacted southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Ten people were killed.
The image above is courtesy of the NWS Office in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
2001: Typhoon Lingling struck the southern Philippines, killing 171 people with 118 missing in Camiguin. The typhoon then struck Vietnam 5 days later, killing an additional 18 people.
2011: A powerful storm system moving through the southern Great Plains produced tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas on November 7-8, 2011. The system initially produced numerous thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding over portions of south-central Oklahoma during the late evening of November 6th and early morning of November 7th. Rainfall totals of 5-9 inches were reported across Jefferson, Carter, and Murray counties. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Norman, Oklahoma.
2012: A Nor’Easter brought several inches of snow to the Northeast. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches were typical with locally higher amounts.
The image above is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Boston.
2013: Super Typhoon Haiyan made history as one of the largest and strongest typhoons ever recorded. Click HERE for more information from NOAA.
Forecast Discussion
Tranquil weather is forecast today as a high pressure ridge continues to build into the northern Great Lakes region. Northwest winds will gradually subside as the ridge builds in. High temps today will reach the 40s to near 50 degrees in the nw flow cool air advection regime. Dry wx will continue through most of tonight before some showers begin to move in from the west toward daybreak Wednesday. Showers will then overspread our area through the day as a result of isentropic upglide north of the warm front and forcing from a 30 kt llj. The combination of weak elevated instability in conjunction with forcing from the llj and low to mid level moisture advection will lead to potential for isolated convection. However convective potential should be mitigated significantly (if not entirely) by weak instability and the expectation of widespread cloud cover and brisk cool easterly winds. We are undercutting guidance max temps by several degrees Wednesday given this synoptic setup featuring brisk east winds and extensive cloud cover and showers. In fact high temps across our northern fcst area will only reach the upper 30s to near 40 degrees with wind chill readings in the upper 20s. It is not impossible that a wet snowflake or two could mix in with pcpn across our far north due to wet bulb/dynamical cooling processes as heavier showers move through. However 00Z CAMs and 00Z HREF guidance consensus suggests that p-type in our area will be all rain. -Rain Winds Down Early Thursday- Rainfall from the system moving through the area Wednesday winds down early Thursday morning as the low pressure system pulls away from the central Great Lakes Region. Did make some minor adjustments to temps Wednesday night from the NBM forecast to better capture the temperatures near the I94 corridor as the surface low passes across southern Michigan overnight, with the caveat that any shifts in surface low track will affect the degree and extent of warming overnight across the southern CWA. -A Few Lake Effect Showers Possible Late Week- Colder air intrudes into the region later Thursday into Friday and possibly Saturday with 850 mb temperatures falling into the negative mid single digits. With lake temperatures in the 10-12C range this will generate enough lake effect instability to support the potential for light lake effect rain showers. Occasional increases in 1000-850 mb omega values along the lakeshore in this time range and the passage of occasional vort maxes in upper troughing/nw flow support this possibility. Feel NBM PoPs are too conservative (no precip forecast in the NBM) so added slight chance PoPs Friday afternoon in association with the best quality low level omega and vort max and further refinement/adjustments will likely be needed in the coming days. However, given highs in the 40s and lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s, not expecting anything impactful with any lake effect showers that do occur. -Benign Conditions Early Next Week- Temperatures begin to warm again going into the early part of next week as ridging pushes into the Great Lakes region. There are some differences in the timing of this with the GEFS/GFS slightly slower than the ECMWF/EPS but regardless of the solution the overall scenario is the same as warm air advection causes highs to warm into the low 50s by early next week. Surface ridging in tandem with this keeps things dry.
The warmth is on! I love winters that start late.
If the forecast doesn’t change, next week is looking pretty nice. I’ll happily take 50s in November… we are reaching the point where it can get very cold from random arctic blasts
Why do I feel like we are going to get blasted with a lobe of cold air and a significant lake effect event especially with all the above average temps in the long term by the CPC. I remember last November we were well above average then later in November we got blasted. Even if this winter turns out below average for snow doesn’t mean we can get little burst of significant snow events.
Yea last winter was near-record warm and we still got record snow in some of the lake effect snow belts. Question is where- near the lake, Kalamazoo, GR
It was a very pleasant early November day yesterday the official H/L was 62/45 there was 0.03” of rain fall (I had 0.05”) it was a windy day with the highest wind speed of 47MPH. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 7 was set in 2020 and the record low of 14 was set in 1991. The record snowfall of 6.0” fell in 1951 and 1951 had the most snow on the ground with 11”. Last year the H/L was 52/36.
Slim