Yesterday we had a high of 55° and the low was 49°. Our rainfall was .75 of an inch which brings our total for the month to 2.13 inches. We expect another day similar to today though rainfall totals should be less than yesterday. Tomorrow night we could see a widespread frost event as temperatures dip into the 30s with calm winds. I suspect we will see frost advisories across southwest Michigan and warnings to the north.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough axis over eastern Ohio and slowly moving east. Local radar continues to show scattered showers over the western cwa. Forecast concerns deal with precipitation trends today and then frost potential Wednesday night. Weak cyclonic vorticity advection coupled with favorable lake delta t/s will create more lake effect showers today. However coverage will be less than Monday as the upper trough continues to move east. Today will be chilly with highs in the mid 50s. We won`t see frost tonight though due to abundant cloud cover. However, as a large area of high pressure moves into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, drier air will advect in with it and we`ll see a clearing trend. That will set the stage for a very chilly Wednesday night. Light winds are expected Wednesday night which should allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s in most locations. We`ll likely need at least a Frost Advisory and perhaps a Freeze Warning over the northern cwa. Warm advection begins late Wednesday night and continues through Saturday. Temperatures will warm to near 70 by Sunday. Sunday may also end up be rather breezy, depending on how far north the remnants of Ian get due to the pressure gradient between it and the high over Ontario.