We have 31° at 6 am here in Otsego. Yesterday our high temp was 48.6° with .15 of an inch of rain bringing our monthly total to .30. We also have some fog around the area thus the dense fog advisory until 9:00 am.
We have about a 30% chance of rain for this morning and once again it is predicted to be meager at best. The best chances of rain will come well east of US 131 – the eastern side of the state rain chances increase to 80% so we will have to take what we can get in the dry spring we have been experiencing.
We remain in a persistent moderate drought and without decent rains, it appears we will remain in a dry pattern.
- Areas of dense fog this morning Areas of dense fog will continue to form this morning under partially clear skies, light winds, and high dewpoints left over after rainfall yesterday. The fog will persist for the first part of the morning commute, before an approaching trough increases mixing and begins to spread showers into the area. The best coverage of denser fog is expected east of Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Big Rapids, but satellite does show some dense patches existing all the way back to Lake Michigan. In addition to low visibility, drivers should be alert for slick spots where temperatures fall near freezing. - Showers, possibly a few thunderstorms today Upper shortwaves now dropping through the U.P. and Northwest Ontario will dive into the area today, sending weak surface low pressure down across Lower Michigan. Modest area of showers now over Wisconsin will begin to spread into West Michigan after 5AM, and is expected to fill in more by afternoon as the system strengthens and we get a boost from daytime heating. This should allow for a better coverage of showers roughly east of a line from Big Rapids to Ionia to Marshall after about noon. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening east of US 131 as models show just enough instability building. Storms will not be severe with only a few hundred J/kg of SB CAPE, but dry air from the surface to 3000-4000 feet will support gusty winds capable of dropping a few small branches. All storms and stronger showers will be capable of producing graupel with the freezing level only around 3500 feet. Showers will move east out of the area during the late afternoon and evening as the low moves east. - Cool temperatures persist through early next week Longwave trough anchored over Eastern Canada and New England will keep reinforcing cold air over the Great Lakes through early next week. The trough will finally move east on Tuesday, but will be followed by a cool dome of high pressure setting up over the Midwest and Central Great Lakes. Temperatures will stay below normal through this period, when we would normally see highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s. Frost and freezing temperatures will continue to be a threat through Tuesday night, and potential for headlines will need to be assessed each day. Headline strategy is to handle this one night at a time to avoid confusion, and will let current frost/freeze headline play out this morning before issuing another. For tonight, gusty northwest winds will subside in the evening, then gradually weaken overnight as low pressure pulls away and the gradient relaxes from west to east. Skies will also clear as surface ridging expands into the area from the Upper Midwest. Widespread temperatures at or below freezing are expected across all of West Michigan tonight, with lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s. Frost potential will be highest generally from Grand Rapids westward, where winds will be lighter and skies will clear first. Conditions Saturday night don`t look as bad with regard to frost/freeze potential. Clouds will spread into southern portions of the state as low pressure begins to track towards the Ohio Valley. This should help keep low temperatures in the mid and upper 30s there, with clouds keeping a lid on radiational cooling and preventing frost. Will have to watch areas near and north of US 10 however, where clearing is more likely to allow lows to drop near or below freezing, and where light winds may allow frost to form. - Rain still possible over Southern Michigan Sunday Model differences still exist with how far north an area of low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley over the weekend. GFS and NAM still suggest rain showers will spread up to about the I- 96/I-69 corridor late Saturday night and Sunday, while the Euro and GEM barely scrape the Michigan border with light precipitation. Will continue to follow a consensus approach for now, and keep mid-range POPS.