Yesterday, we had a high of 55° and a low of 42°. I haven’t emptied my rain gauge yet; I will post later this morning.
This week, we will continue to see a daily risk of showers. We’ll start out on the mild side before temperatures cool off later in the week. After Wednesday, we could even see some of the first snowflakes of the season.
Weather History
1930: Record late-season warmth was across Lower Michigan with highs of 74 degrees at Grand Rapids and Lansing.
On November 19, 1953, this started a two-day streak of record highs in Flint with a temperature of 70 degrees on the 19th and 68 degrees on the 20th.
NWS Forecast
Today
Showers, mainly before noon. High near 62. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%—new precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 41. West southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
Showers, mainly after 7 am. High near 48. Light west wind becoming west northwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%—new precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Rain showers before 10 pm, then rain and snow showers. Low around 33. West wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
Thursday
Rain, possibly mixed with snow showers, becomes all rain after 1 pm. High near 40. West wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
Thursday Night
Showers are likely, mainly before 1 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 32. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
Showers are likely, mainly after 1 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
Showers are likely, mainly before 1 am. Cloudy, with a low around 38.
Saturday
A chance of showers after 1 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 34.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 35.
Monday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.
Forecast Discussion
- Mild with showers this morning, cooler with showers Wednesday Radar shows a band of showers associated with an occluded front tied to low pressure over Minnesota moving toward the cwa. This band of showers will move northeast across the cwa this morning leaving much of the afternoon dry. We`ll realize some mild air this morning and temperatures will climb into the lower 60s across the southern cwa prior to the front moving through. Closer to noon, cooler air will begin flowing into the cwa from the southwest. Tonight will be dry and colder with lows around 40. The deep upper low approaching from the west will result in a low forming over southeast Lower Wednesday and we`re likely to see showers develop over the southern cwa mid morning Wednesday and continue into the afternoon as the upper low begins to move over Lower MI. Highs Wednesday will remain in the 40s. - Potential wintry mix of pcpn Wednesday night - Thursday Wednesday night into Thursday continues to feature a low confidence yet potentially moderate to high impact event in parts of GRR CWFA or somewhere close by. Strong/rapid cyclogenesis is expected to take place over the Great Lakes Region during this time as a deep upper low/trough arrive and colder air sweeps in from the northwest. This set up favors the (still low) potential of some heavier wet/slushy synoptic snow accumulations, but the placement of the heavier QPF under the upper low is still very difficult to pin down (as well as if it even turns cold enough to changeover to all snow and snow hard enough to overcome warm ground temps). While this worst case/90th percentile scenario needs pointed out, the best case/50 percentile forecast continues to be for a mixture or rain and snow showers with fairly minor snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible. Favored areas would be inland from the Lk MI shoreline and/or across higher/colder elevations such as near/north of M-20 and possibly the Irish Hills around JXN. There`s also uncertainty regarding the extent/amounts of lake effect/enhanced precipitation due to questions about H8 temps and wind directions. Currently the guidance indicates the core of the coldest air at H8 sliding south of MI but perhaps becoming cold enough for lake effect rain and snow showers on Wednesday night into early Thursday when the sfc low is potentially north of here and a westerly flow dominates. Another consideration in all of this is the interplay of the lake aggregate component with the synoptic evolution of this system. The Great Lakes are still quite warm (50-55F) and this will likely influence the sfc low development/pressure pattern and resultant wind directions to some extent. The global models are currently locking in on the idea of the low initially developing in the vicinity of Lakes Huron/Erie later Wednesday, pivoting northwestward on Wednesday night toward the Straits area while deepening, then sliding southward on Thursday while filling as another low forms over New England. The New England low eventually becomes the primary low by Thursday night. It will be interesting to see how the Hires/mesoscale models eventually handle things in future runs.
Snow, snow , snow is coming! Rock n roll baby!
“The average temperature across the Lower 48 this fall is more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal as of November 15. The warmest fall on record in 2016 was 4.04 degrees warmer than average. This fall will likely finish cooler than 7 degrees above normal with storms on the way this week, but it has still been the warmest start to fall on record.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/weather/fall-temperature-change-climate/index.html
Wow – warmest fall ever after a warm summer!
Don’t remember about spring but wasn’t last winter the warmest on record too? I’m sensing a trend here.
I recorded 0.22” of rainfall yesterday and overnight. At the current time it is cloudy and 52 here in MBY.
Slim
.34 inches here – 2.93 for the month – 6.58 for fall. We had 3.65 inches for September and October. We have 59 degrees in Otsego
The official H/L yesterday at GR was 55/40 there was 0.17” of rainfall. The sun was out 24% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 26 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 74 was set in 1930 the coldest high of 25 was set in 2022. The record low of 9 was set in 1986 the warmest low of 55 was set in 1991. The most rainfall of 1.33” fell in 1991 the most snowfall of 8.7” fell in 2022 the most on the ground of 10” was… Read more »