Cold & Windy

Yesterday, our high temperature was 50° and our low was 40°. I hope you enjoyed that because we won’t see that relatively warmer air for a while. As the clouds clear out today, temperatures will remain in the mid-30s with winds out of the west.  The lake effect snow machine will ramp up later tomorrow with chances of continuing through Monday.

Weather History

1896: Record warm temperatures in the 60s occur across Lower Michigan. The warmth does not last long, though. A sharp cold front is followed by plunging temperatures for the end of the month. The high of 64 degrees at Lansing is followed by a low of 18 degrees on the next day and a low of 8 degrees on November 30th.

1949: Lansing falls to 5 below zero, the lowest November temperature on record there.

On November 26, 2018, a low-pressure system with a history of producing more than a foot of snow and blizzard conditions over the central Plains moved into the Great Lakes. Locations in Saginaw and Tuscola Counties saw over 7 inches of snow, while locations in Sanilac, St. Clair, and Macomb Counties only saw a trace of snow or none at all. Flint did break their daily snowfall record for the day with 4.2 inches.

On November 26, 2002, heavy lake effect snow developed over Lake Huron as cold north-northeasterly winds passed over the relatively warm waters of the lake. A lake effect snow band moved onshore in eastern St Clair County and far southeastern Sanilac County on the afternoon of the 26th. The band then remained nearly stationary through the rest of the afternoon and into the early morning hours of the 27th. The snow was the heaviest and persisted the longest in the city of Port Huron. By the morning of the 27th, 12-hour snowfall totaled 17 inches across the northern half of the city of Port Huron, while the south half reported amounts around 13 inches. In Sanilac County, 12-hour snowfall amounts were reported as; 8 inches in Lexington, Crosswell, and Applegate.

On November 26, 1977, snow continued to fall as cold air filtered into Southeast Michigan. The snow started on November 25 and continued into November 27. By the time it stopped snowing Detroit had 5.6 inches of new snow, Flint received 2.9 inches, and Saginaw recorded 6.0 inches.

Also on November 26, 1949, the overnight temperature dropped to a freezing -7 degrees in Flint! This is the record minimum temperature for the month of November in Flint.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Early Morning Snow Showers Central Michigan

Drizzle and light rain near and north of I-96 early this morning may
change to wet snow just prior to daybreak. Precipitation south of US-
10 should effectively diminish as the morning goes on as drier air
and slightly lower inversion heights move in. Decent chance of
breaks in the clouds and partly sunny skies mid-day mainly in the
southern half of the lower peninsula. For southwest Michigan it may
be the best opportunity for sunshine all week.

- Light Snow Possible Wednesday Night Southern Michigan

There remains a possibility for light accumulating snow less than an
inch across southern Michigan (I-94 and south especially), about a
50-60 pct chance at this point. Still an outside chance of 10
percent that it amounts to more than 2 inches. This is as low
pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley, and precip on the north
side of the low may extend into Michigan. The precip may start out
as rain initially. There is still some uncertainty as the
development and track of this low depends on the phasing of two
upper-level waves, one currently over the Canadian Rockies and one
just coming in to the western US coast. There has been a downward
trend in snow possibilities in over the last few runs of the ECE.

- Lake Effect Snow Starting Thursday Night

Some lake-effect snow flurries may fall Thanksgiving Day as winds
shift from north to northwest behind the exiting Ohio Valley low.
Lake-effect should ramp up Thursday night to Friday, with impacts to
road conditions a good possibility. This is when the broader,
longwave troughing anchored over southern Canada and the Great Lakes
becomes reinforced by a shortwave trough and colder air sourced from
the Northwest Canadian Arctic region spills toward the Great Lakes.
Forecast soundings show plenty of moisture and lift through the DGZ
with lake-induced convective parcels through the DGZ, so bursts of
heavier snow may occur in multiple bands oriented with the west-
northwest winds.

Lake effect may ebb somewhat Saturday under weak shortwave ridging
and drier upstream air, though 850 mb temperatures will still be
plenty cold and wind direction still favorable for west Michigan.
There may be an uptick in lake-effect snow Sunday or Monday if
another shortwave trough propagates through. As long as this
longwave pattern remains in place over the region, bursts of heavier
lake-effect snow with passing shortwaves remain a possibility. This
pattern is favored to remain in place at least through the middle of
next week.