As I said the other day, we are in the last gasp of winter but we will hit a bump in the road between now and through the weekend before temps warm back up to reasonable levels. Not much longer before the snow blowers can be tucked in for the season and the lawn tractors can wake up from their long winter’s nap.
We have 27° at 5 am this morning. Yesterday’s high was 42° and the low 23ˆ.
Colder than normal temperatures will prevail into Sunday. Saturday may well be the coldest day of the entire month with highs only in the 20s. Periods of snow showers are expected tonight into Saturday. A warm front comes through Sunday morning, then a warming trend starts that will be more noticeable on Monday as highs reach well into the 40s. Highs should reach into the 50s by Wednesday.
Forecast Discussion
- Snow Threat Tonight into Friday - A shallow trough extending across the upper mid west will be behind some isentropic lift that should allow for bands of snowfall through southern Michigan. While there is the potential for higher amounts, about 1 to 2 inches is expected. The best lift shifts slightly sooner with the best frontogenesis between 06Z to 12Z. The jet, which is fueling this system, will have moved to the north east, starving the system after 12Z Friday. There is still some range of snowfalls but the largest snowfall will be in the snow bands Kalamazoo eastward along the I-94 corridor. - Lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday - As the jet shifts eastward a deepening trough will drop a cold front through the region Friday night into Saturday. The trough that will bring northerly flow over the lake will allow for a decent setup for some light lake effect snow due to the cold air, with 850 mb temps as low as -20C, pouring across Lake Michigan. Delta T`s will be around 20C during this time frame, so plenty of instability will be in place. A strong upper trough will be moving through the region during this time so there should be some help synoptically for the lake effect snow. The one caveat will be lack of widespread moisture. However with lake effect you don`t really need it especially as the Lake is unfrozen and there has been some warming. There is some good there is moisture between 1000mb to 700mb. The models seem to be under doing snowfall Friday night into Saturday morning. There also is bands of positive Omega, which is a good indicator of instability, and given everything else mentioned leads to a good probability for bursts of snow Friday night into Saturday. Several inches of snow are possible, especially at Ludington and in Van Buren county. Based on these trends, there could be locally higher snowfall amounts. - Snow chances Sunday - As the trough moves eastward and cuts of the flow across the lake, Saturday afternoon, the snow will end. A quick hitting clipper will move through Sunday, which could bring more snow, through mainly to the US 10 corridor. A warm front will follow in its wake Sunday with a warm and wet trend next week.
Another pretty day today. Not much of a breeze, so it feels much warmer than yesterday. Only one small pile of snow left at the end of our driveway.
Considering all the opinions posted yesterday re: this winter, here are my thoughts/observations. It never got very cold. There were no extended stretchs of really “warm” temps. Some areas received a little above average seasonal snowfall, and some received a little below average snowfall. I used my snowblower three times. All in all IMO, it was a very average winter.
I am glad inland areas that don’t get much lake effect got in on the snow. Nothing to crazy but this was the best winter for snowmobiling here in probably a couple years.
It seems like we were able to snowmobile in this area a lot when we were kids. Nowadays? Not so much.
32* degrees in my hood pretty cold for mid March standards as Slim would agree with me he is about the only one on this blog I trust with weather facts ohhh and Rocky RBD modle…that sums it up and dress warm have a nice Thursday…Indy
We will soon be in both meteorological and calendar spring. Well thanks to Mookie I now have a good definition as to when the “winter” season starts and ends. According to the AWSSI “The winter season ends at the last occurrence of any of the following:
• Last measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch)
• Last day with 1 inch of snow on the ground
• Last day with a maximum temperature of 32°F or lower
• February 28/29″
So according to the AWSSI the start date of the winter season of 2021/22 started on November 12 when there was a snow fall of 1.2″ and a point value of 2 but the winter season will not end until either GR gets it last snow fall of 0.1″ or has 1” of snow on the ground or does not have a high of 32 or lower. So as of yesterday Grand Rapids (under that definition) has had a winter season now of 118 days. Also under that definition the winter of 2006/07 started on October 12 2006 that winter season did not end until April 13, 2007. And that was in a very mild winter season. And yes it shows that in the AWSSI chart for the winter season of 2006/07 a warm but long winter season.
Slim
Latest graphic from the NWS shows the “sweet spot” for the next snow event tonight from Kalamazoo to Lansing where 2-3” could fall. The Lansing area has sure been a target for snow this winter (not that this next snow event is even much..but still).
Yes a lot of the big storms have gone Southeast of GR so Lansing has been in a good spot! Even so GR is still approaching 70 inches of snow and has seen below normal temps! What a winter!
You don’t need to tell me that. 🙂
The time change is in a couple days. Sunday the sun will set at 7:46 and civil twilight will last until 8:14. Combined with the forecast warmer zonal pattern for next week, it will definitely feel much different than the weather pattern this week.
Also I got a new bike yesterday… looking forward to using it!
For all the talk of “cold start to March” and a “big mid month arctic blast,” I find it funny that March has actually been well above average temps and that the big mid month cooldown is somewhat cool temps for only 3 days.
Bill’s Blog titles the past 2 weeks have included:
Cool End to February – Cool Start to March
Cold Pattern
50 degrees this weekend, but it’s not spring for good
Enjoy the 60° Late Saturday – After That It’s Back to Winter
Seen my first Robin this morning. Also hearing the spring “peepers” as well.
We saw a robin on Tuesday..
Yesterday I posted that at Grand Rapids the winter of 2021/22 was very average winter season. And later in the day there was a post showing the “winter severity index” that agreed with my assessment.
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/AWSSI/chart.html?stn=GRRthr
So yes, December was borderline mild/moderate, and January was moderate/average and according to the chart February was average. In looking at the chart for other locations it would indicate that Flint and Detroit had little more “severe” winter than Grand Rapids.
Slim
No, the winter severity index for GR currently shows a below-average winter.
The ranks are: extreme, severe, average, moderate, and mild. GR is currently in the second lowest ranking of moderate. Up until early January, GR was in the lowest ranking of mild winter.
Lol
Thanks Mookie, I have book marked the winter severity index site (well the The Midwestern Regional Climate Center site) and now can use it for future refence.
Slim
Slim you are 100% correct! This winter has been about normal! Who would have thought with all the warm weather hype!
With clear skies the overnight low here at my house was 21. The official low at GRR was 23. With clear skies it is now 23 here at my house. For the first 9 days of March the mean at Grand Rapids is 34.6 and that is +2.6 there has been 2.6” of snow fall. The highest temperature so far has been 64 and the lowest so far has been 15. Friday and Saturday look to be rather cold with maybe some snow and then a good warm up for next week.
Slim
I agree with Andy and mookie that next week looks warmer, however here is a special gift for them to check out! Please keep in mind this is not a snowfall forecast. This is just showing that snow chances into the following week do exist! Will I be skiing the end of March or golfing? That is the question?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=snku_acc&rh=2022031006&fh=264
Yes Rocky, we are heading into spring it seems to happen ever year. There will still be some ups and downs but up and downs are the way the weather works around here. So looking forward there will some nice and warm days and then some cool days and who knows maybe even some snow here at there. I am looking forward for the first 70° day and then the first 80° day and who knows come summer time some 90° days.
Slim
Yes once winter is over it will be nice for some nice warm Spring temps! Keep the facts rocking!
That’s surprising because you’ve been posting constantly about a cold March and getting pummeled with snow. But we are warmer than average with a big warm up on the way and have received below average snow as well.
Lol
Skiing here I come! Another great weekend for outdoor winter sports is ready to Rock!
Looks like I may not even get any snow for me in my point forecast!! Which would be fantastic!!! Let’s get SPRING going!!
Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Tonight
A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph.
Friday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Friday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 15. North northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. North northwest wind 14 to 17 mph.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.