We have 18° at 7 this morning as our coldest air of the season moves through the state. Our high yesterday was 37° and the low was 23° with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Today will feature lots of sunshine and warmer temps into the low 40s as we are in the uneventful period for the week. With the exception of some wind with an approaching cold front later today there is nothing to get excited about as will be the story for the rest of the week with the exception of small chances of rain and snow showers on Thanksgiving.
Forecast Discussion
- Burst of Stronger Winds Expected This Evening - The decision to roll with a Wind Advisory along the lakeshore still looks good based on the latest model runs. All of the higher resolution models are indicating solid 40 knot gales for a 3-6 hour period on Lake Michigan. Gales of this magnitude usually result in Wind Advisory gusts (45 mph or greater) on land. Multiple runs of the HRRR are indicating 45 mph gusts through the lakeshore counties at least this evening in the strong cold air advection just behind the cold frontal passage. The cold front is surging across Wisconsin at this time and should move into West Central Lower Michigan up near Ludington towards 500 pm. We are expecting the potential for some scattered power outages in the lakeshore counties given the higher gusts there combined with many trees closer to the warmer lake that still have leaves on them. An isolated power outage cannot be ruled out inland. The worst of the wind will be between 5pm and 10pm across our forecast area. There is very limited moisture associated with this frontal passage, so lake effect snow will be non existent to limited at best. Visible imagery tells the story, with little in the way of clouds upstream of our area over Wisconsin. The best cyclonic flow will pass off to our north with the shortwave. So, if we see any snow, the best chance for a dusting will be on the high ground up Luther over to Tustin. - Quiet Weather Conditions Monday through Wednesday - A period of quieter weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday as a dry northwest upper flow transitions into ridging aloft. We begin warm air advecting on Tuesday as southwest flow commences. By Tuesday evening we are too warm aloft for lake effect snow or clouds after Delta T`s of over 20C tonight. Cannot rule out a spotty shower on Wednesday in the afternoon, but at this point we are thinking we will remain dry from Monday through Wednesday. Highs on Monday in the 30s warm to around 40 on Tuesday and to near 50 on Wednesday. - Weather Turns a Bit More Active around Thanksgiving - A northern plains trough will approach the area Wednesday night and plow into the Great Lakes on Thanksgiving. The precipitation will be of the liquid variety Wednesday night. On Thanksgiving, the precipitation will likely be a rain changing to snow scenario. There could be some light slushy accumulations on Thanksgiving, especially in the afternoon and evening. Nothing that looks to heavy, but something we will be keeping an eye on given the travel impacts. Both the ECWMF and GFS have surface temperatures falling below freezing during the evening. Some lake effect snow is expected from Thursday evening into Friday before it ends. - Disparity in the Models for Friday through Sunday - There are differences in the models as we head into next weekend, which is not surprising at this range in the forecast. The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all have the Great Lakes in an upper trough with different handling of how shortwave energy dives into the backside of it over our area. We will be cold enough for lake effect snow, but the surface pattern in the three models is quite different. We will need a bit more continuity at the surface for sure to nail down any details.
After a chilly start, it turned into another beautiful sunny day.
14* degrees this morning in my area thats January cold in the middle of November feels great outside incredible…InDY
Incredible cold on our way to a below normal temp month! Who knew?
Another wind event today? Might as well haul the generator right back out again as I’m sure more trees will come down. Nice to see another sunny November day. Don’t usually get many of them.
By far last night was the coldest night of the season so far. The overnight low here at my house was 15 the official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 18. With clear skies the current temperature here in my yard is 16 (15.8). For the month the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 40.8 and that is a departure of -0.7.
Slim