We are about to close out the month of July, two-thirds of the summer has gone by and daylight begins to make a rapid retreat. Our weather pattern this month has been fairly active in regards to more severe weather and tornadoes than the past few years, at least in certain areas of the state. We had storm cells move through SW Michigan yesterday morning. We can only guess patterns by looking at certain weather dynamics in place, what plays out is up to those patterns making choices of what to do. SW Michigan (south of GR) was the area of choice where heavy rain, wind, thunder and lightning play out. Those areas saw some wind damage. We had a few dead branches, lots of leaves and walnuts in our yard to clean up.
I am a fearless defender of our Mets as the weather is a guessing game at best, we can only make guesses by what data is available at any certain time. Remember these are the same people who track the storms to help keep us safe.
It will be cooler and less humid today with high temperatures topping out in the 70s. It will be dry today, tonight and for much of Saturday. A cold front approaching from the north on Saturday will bring chances for showers and storms starting during the late afternoon across Central Lower Michigan. Saturday evening into Saturday night all areas stand a chance for some rain.
- Dry weather today, tonight and much of Saturday Cooler and drier air has infiltrated Southwest Michigan this morning. Temperatures have reached the 50s across Central Lower Michigan with much less humid dew points (49F at Big Rapids) now in place. The upper flow will be northwest today and tonight with a shortwave trough moving into the Northern Great Lakes late tonight. This shortwave will drive a cold front into the area Saturday night, but much of Saturday will be dry. The area that may see some showers and storms in the afternoon will be across Central Lower Michigan. Very comfortable mid summer temperatures are expected through Saturday with highs in the 70s (today and Saturday) and lows tonight in the 50s. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening/night The better chance for showers and thunderstorms with our next cold front will be Saturday evening into Saturday night. This front will be a bit more moisture starved than recent events given the deeper moisture has been shunted to the south with the cold front yesterday. Dew points ahead of Saturday`s front will rise to around 60F which is significant by July/August standards. Precipitable water values will only rise to around 1.25 inches which is also low by mid summer standards ahead of an approaching cold front. We are expecting a broken line of showers and thunderstorms to develop late Saturday afternoon and especially into the evening hours of Saturday. Deep layer shear is on the order of 30 knots so there will be some storm organization, but given moisture levels that are down a bit, instability will not be all that significant. Bottom line, we are expecting some storms, but they should remain below severe levels. The strongest activity may be what moves our direction from Northern Wisconsin, but these storms will be moving over a more stable environment over Lake Michigan. - Mainly dry into next week The Sunday through next Thursday time frame will largely be dry with high pressure situated over the Great Lakes. The slightly cooler than normal conditions will likely persist into next week making for comfortable temperatures. The caveat to the dry weather will be in the Sunday into Monday time frame where we have some cooler air aloft and a shortwave moving through on Sunday. We may need to increase chances for rain showers during this time frame as the upper pattern is conducive.