I have been limping my way towards a winter forecast, actually trying to avoid it because of what happened last year and the uncertainty of a flip this year. So in my avoidance I bring the NWS changes in winter weather statements this year. Due to issues of non clarity and confusion on why ‘this’ was issued instead of ‘that’ the NWS has changed the way they will issue winter weather advisories, watches and warnings hopefully simplifying their system. these product changes began on October 2nd.
- Product Consolidation:
- Consolidate Lake Effect Snow Advisory and Freezing Rain Advisory into Winter Weather Advisory
- Consolidate Lake Effect Snow Watch and Blizzard Watch into Winter Storm Watch
- Consolidate Lake Effect Snow Warning into Winter Storm Warning (selected sites only)
- Product Reformatting:
- Reformat all winter products into a “What, Where, When, Additional Details, and Precautionary/Preparedness Actions” format.
While the five consolidated products noted above will no longer be issued, the service will still be provided. Instead of issuing products specifically catered to lake effect snow, freezing rain, and blizzards (only in the case of watches for blizzards), the information will be provided in the “what” section of existing products.
Reformatting will bring a more clear and organized look and feel to the products. Critical decision-making details will be more readily available and easier to find with the new format mentioned above.
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A second set of changes, applying to all flood products nationwide, will be implemented late winter/early spring 2018:
- Consolidate Flash Flood Watch into Flood Watch
- Reformat all Flood products (including River Point products) into a “What, Where, When, Additional Details, and Precautionary/Preparedness Actions” format.
November 5th through the 11th is Winter Weather Awareness Week, I don’t see winter weather coming that week and a close call on a killing frost but we must be prepared. Keep in mind in my many years of watching weather in Michigan, I have seen a nice fall day in the 60s quickly change into cold and snow (all in the same day). So our climate flips can be short termed or several months dependent of the many factors I have been posting the last couple weeks.
We could see a winter like last year where most of our snow fell in three weeks and we laughed with glee with our snowblowers blowing, snowballs flying and cars sliding to and fro then the snow machine shuts down for the rest of the winter. My hats off to all the ski resorts who kept snow on their hills most of the winter even when mother nature didn’t lend a hand.
Winter Forecast Hint
It is still to early for me to put out my winter guess but as with last year my concern is the rain snow line being so close (according to some predictions south of I-80) and the chance of more rain/freezing rain for the southern counties of Michigan. Last year my prediction stated this but I also said we would have a normal winter for most of the state, with the exception of the lake Michigan counties who would see more – this worked out well until January came around and most of the winter forecasts flew right out the window including my own.
Perhaps our winter will be the opposite of last year where we start freaking out because we have no snow, then on Christmas eve it starts and it doesn’t stop until March. That said, I do think the snow blowers will get to have more a workout this year than last, having seen some of the things in nature that proceed a snowy winter, seed and nut output, etc…. I haven’t dusted off the crystal ball or cast the Rune stones, consulted the squirrels or woolly bears so I would be remiss to give anymore information than this until a later date.
I will post this here and in my Saturday post. But while not guaranteed there is a chance of a big fall storm 15 to 20 days out. Think big time November storm. I would call this a “heads up” advisory. Some think this will be a flip into a long hard winter pattern. I will not say that. But I will do some research and see if I can find a year with a hot September warm October that led into a cold snowy winter. Right now I have not seen one.
Slim
Yes, the CFS is trying to bring cold air in around the 25th or 26th with a low pressure center dropping out of Canada – will this be the ‘shock’ winter lovers have been waiting for???? I will let Slim get further into this forecast (hope this wasn’t a spoiler alert)
I have no problem with the new labeling of winter weather products. I would like it if each NWS office would indicate what the definitions of what is a “winter storm” “heavy snow” ect event in their area. Another issue I have is by issuing products by county that is particularly a issue for lake events in the winter and tornadoes and thunderstorms in the summer.
Slim